Why are there so many games that end a Draw in Ligue 2 ?

Posted on: September 19th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In ligue 2 this season the average goal production is 2.17  ( last season 2.3) and a whopping 42% of games have ended a draw ( last season 32%) .

In leagues where the goal production is low > expectation will be that there will be draw bias as a result .

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,” <> in Ligue 2 in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 , in games where the home team are winning 1-0 at home > some expectation of the away team fighting back < higher expectation of the game > 1-1 pathway then 2-0 pathway .

In ligue 2 in games where the away team open the scoring 0-20 minutes ,  there is much higher expectation of the game > 1-1 pathway then 0-2 pathway and as a result there will be some draw bias .

GAME PATHWAY  in ligue 2 last season in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes .

8/59 0-1 FT

36/59 > 1-1  15-16-5 <> away team won 14%

15/59 > 0-2  0-3-12 <> away team won 80%

 

In the table below I have added the last 50 games in Ligue 2 where either the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes or the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 22% ended a draw 

 

 

T HT FT
Val Ajaccio H4 1 0 1 1
Tours Nimes A8 1 2 1 3
Orléans Strasbourg H5 1 0 3 1
Le Havre Val H10 1 2 2 2
Reims Gazélec H7 1 0 2 0
Niort Nimes A9 0 2 1 3
Ajaccio Red Star H8 1 0 1 2
Troyes Lens A8 0 1 1 1
Bourg Niort A5 0 1 2 2
Niort Tours A9 1 4 1 4
Le Havre Troyes A4 1 2 1 3
Ajaccio Bourg A12 1 1 3 1
Nimes Lens A16 0 1 0 2
Brest Orleans A14 1 1 2 1
Val Clermont H4 1 0 2 0
Orléans Le Havre A16 0 1 0 1
Tours Nancy A2 1 3 2 5
Lens Metz H8 1 0 1 0
Le Havre Bourg H5 3 0 5 0
Creteil Red Star A6 1 3 2 4
Evian Nimes A2 1 1 4 1
Val Niort H8 2 2 3 3
Niort Creteil H7 3 2 4 2
Bourg Lens H2 1 0 2 1
Nimes Laval A13 0 1 1 1
Red Star Dijon A14 2 1 3 2
Dijon Metz A11 0 1 0 4
Lens Paris A3 0 1 0 1
Brest Evian A18 0 1 0 2
Laval Clermont H2 1 0 1 1
Creteil Ajjacio H6 2 1 2 2
Auxerre Dijon H10 1 0 2 0
Ajjacio Val A9 0 1 1 1
Bourg Metz A5 0 2 0 3
Red Star Niort A16 0 1 0 2
Paris Bourg H5 2 0 2 0
Laval Sochaux A18 0 1 1 2
Red Star Paris A6 1 2 2 4
Red Star Auxerre A19 0 1 0 2
Dijon Nimes A7 0 1 0 1
Niort Paris A7 0 1 2 1
Bourg Nancy H10 1 0 2 0
Metz Ajaccio A5 1 2 3 2
Clermont Metz A12 1 1 2 1
Evian Dijon A3 0 2 1 2
Le Havre Val A12 2 1 3 2
Nimes Bourg A14 1 1 1 1
Brest Creteil A13 1 1 2 1
Laval Lens A6 0 1 1 1
Lens Evian H10 1 0 1 0