Why are there so many games that end a Draw in Ligue 2 ?

Posted on: January 16th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,” is a common conclusion via the mainstream football data analysts.

The above conclusion implies that the pathway > 1-1 in a game of football would in general be more likely then 2-0/0-2 and the limitation with reference to the conclusion is the need to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in an individual league in terms of expectation of the other team fighting back.

There have been 60 games since last season in Ligue 2 where the home teams opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 23% ended a draw.

GAME PATHWAY

7/60 1-0 FT

28/60 > 2-0

25/60 > 1-1

In games in Ligue 2 where the home team open the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band > 1-1 pathway will be as likely as > 2-0 pathway.

There have been 85 games since last season in Ligue 2 where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 29% ended a draw

GAME PATHWAY

9/85 0-1 FT

24/85 > 0-2

52/85 > 1-1

In games in Ligue 2 where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band > 1-1 pathway will be far more likely then > 0-2 pathway which is why there is draw bias in this profile in ligue 2

HT Summary

If you read the academic research in the area of the draw in a game of football , a common conclusion is that a high % of games end a draw because of teams ” fighting back ” and the actual reason is because in general football will produce a low goal production which will provide some draw bias .

The reason why a high % of games in Ligue 2 end a draw is because of two reasons;

1. low goal production in ligue 2 in general season on season will produce draw bias

2. If you consider that in general that an early goal will result in acceleration of goal production which means that as a result there will be lowered draw bias , this will not apply to ligue 2 in games where there is an early goal metric for the simple reason that 1-0 half time to the home team in Ligue 2 added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 0-1 half time in Ligue 2 added to the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and lowered expectation of the teams + 1 goal winning the second half which is where the draw bias will be strongest and you should be looking to trade around the draw in play in that profile in ligue 2 / backing against the team + 1 to win the 2nd half of the games.

FT Summary

If you have built a model which triggers bets on the draw in games before they start then consider how the time of the opening goal in an individual league will effect expectation of the other team fighting back which should motivate you to trade games in play by reacting to the events that occur during a game .

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80+
Troyes Ajaccio 5 A34 1 1 1 2 86
Strasbourg Lens 9 H31 2 0 3 1
Red Star Orléans 1 1 0 1 0
Troyes Clermont 5 1 0 1 0
Val Bourg 7 A29 1 1 3 3 90
Nimes Clermont 3 A66 1 0 1 1
Reims Le Havre 4 1 0 1 0
Tours Val 6 H11 3 1 4 1
Red Star Nimes 4 A17 2 2 3 3
Strasbourg Val 10 A26 1 2 2 4 83
Reims Auxerre 10 H63 1 0 3 0 84
Ajaccio Auxerre 1 H73 1 0 2 0
Orleans Strasbourg 5 H49 1 0 3 1 90
Val Ajaccio 4 A53 1 0 1 1
Le Havre Val 10 A11 1 2 2 2
Ajaccio Red Star 8 A71 1 0 1 2
Reims Gazalec 7 H85 1 0 2 0 85
Val Clermont 4 H49 1 0 2 0
Le Havre Bourg 5 H38 3 0 5 0 82
Lens Metz 8 1 0 1 0
Val Niort 8 H11 2 2 3 3
Niort Creteil 7 A13 3 2 4 2
Bourg Lens 2 H82 1 0 2 1 82 90
Laval Clermont 2 A63 1 0 1 1
Créteil Ajaccio 6 A12 2 1 2 2 89
Auxerre Dijon 10 H60 1 0 2 0
Paris Bourg 5 H19 2 0 2 0
Bourg Nancy 10 H90 1 0 2 0 90
Lens Evian 10 1 0 1 0
Evian Bourg 6 A10 1 1 1 1
Ajaccio Clermont 3 H43 2 0 3 1 83
Sochaux Red Star 7 A60 1 0 1 2 87
Brest Bourg 9 A65 1 0 2 1 89
Auxerre Evian 10 H19 2 0 3 1 88
Auxerre Tours 9 A81 1 0 2 1 81 84
Sochaux Niort 2 A40 2 1 2 3
Niort Dijon 6 A16 1 1 2 2 90
Clermont Evian 8 H11 4 0 4 1 89
Laval Nimes 2 A20 1 1 3 2 90
Ajaccio Creteil 7 H83 1 0 3 0 83 89
Bourg Niort 10 H86 1 0 2 1 86 90
Le Havre Evian 8 A32 1 1 3 2
Laval Brest 8 H64 1 0 2 0
Clermont Val 5 H41 2 0 2 0
Brest Sochaux 5 1 0 1 0
Dijon Clermont 9 H25 4 0 4 1
Ajaccio Bourg 5 H32 2 0 2 0
Niort Ajaccio 7 A25 1 1 3 1 83
Nimes Dijon 5 A42 1 1 1 1
Evian Lens 2 H28 2 0 2 1
Ajjacio Auxerre 3 1 0 1 0
Brest Niort 2 A19 1 1 1 1
Bourg Brest 8 H65 1 0 3 1 90
Dijon Creteil 10 H21 2 0 4 1 83 89
Creteil Metz 5 A55 1 0 1 2
Nancy Brest 8 H32 3 0 3 0
Ajaccio Evian 2 A23 1 1 1 1
Red Star Tours 8 A90 1 0 1 1 90
Dijon Niort 8 H79 1 0 3 0 90
Creteil Bourg 7 H63 1 0 2 1

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
Red Star Clermont 13 H30 1 2 1 3
Niort Laval 9 H14 1 2 2 2
Le Havre Tours 3 A30 0 2 0 2
Bourg Clermont 15 H50 0 1 1 1
Nimes Brest 9 A22 1 2 1 2
Brest Niort 8 A13 1 3 2 3
Clermont Gazélec 10 H18 1 1 3 1
Orleans Nimes 19 H58 0 1 2 1
Reims Laval 7 A72 0 1 0 2
Orleans Troyes 7 H84 0 1 1 1 84
Bourg Amiens 12 H17 1 1 2 4 86
Laval Clermont 6 H83 0 1 1 1 83
Val Lens 11 H31 1 1 1 2 90
Gazélec Nimes 6 A42 0 2 0 2
Lens Orleans 8 H31 1 2 4 2
Bourg Le Havre 13 H45 1 1 2 1 86
Tours Nimes 8 H11 1 2 1 3
Niort Nimes 9 A14 0 2 1 3 84
Bourg Niort 5 A64 0 1 2 2 90
Troyes Lens 8 H60 0 1 1 1
Ajaccio Bourg 12 H32 1 1 3 1 88 90
Le Havre Troyes 4 H9 1 2 1 3
Niort Tours 9 A27 1 4 1 4
Nimes Lens 16 A53 0 1 0 2
Brest Orleans 14 H36 1 1 2 1
Orleans Le Havre 16 0 1 0 1
Créteil Red 6 A13 1 3 2 4
Evian Nimes 2 H27 1 1 4 1 85 90
Tours Nancy 2 H13 1 3 2 5 86 90
Nimes Laval 13 H56 0 1 1 1
Red Dijon 14 H24 2 1 3 2 80 85
Dijon Metz 11 A65 0 1 0 4 82
Lens Paris 3 0 1 0 1
Brest Evian 18 A72 0 1 0 2
Ajaccio Val 9 H82 0 1 1 1 82
Bourg Metz 5 A11 0 2 0 3
Red Niort 16 A88 0 1 0 2 88
Laval Sochaux 18 A90 0 1 1 2 90 90
Red Paris 6 H20 1 2 2 4
Red Auxerre 19 A53 0 1 0 2
Dijon Nimes 7 0 1 0 1
Niort Paris 7 H58 0 1 2 1 90
Metz Ajaccio 5 H27 1 2 3 2 80
Clermont Metz 12 H15 1 1 2 1 83
Evian Dijon 3 A6 0 2 1 2
Le Havre Val 12 H21 2 1 3 2 88
Nimes Bourg 14 H43 1 1 1 1
Brest Creteil 13 H29 1 1 2 1 81
Laval Lens 6 H83 0 1 1 1 83
Ajaccio Nancy 13 H23 1 1 2 1
Metz Brest 13 H27 2 2 2 2
Paris Auxerre 10 H57 0 1 2 2 81
Auxerre Nancy 5 A9 0 2 2 2
Evian Metz 4 0 1 0 1
Tours Ajaccio 5 H55 0 1 1 1
Lens Dijon 8 H24 1 1 1 1
Nimes Clermont 5 H7 3 2 6 2 82
Auxerre Sochaux 17 H62 0 1 2 1
Evian Brest 18 A54 0 1 0 2
Nimes Le Havre 19 A53 0 1 2 2 80 86
Paris Lens 20 0 1 0 1
Sochaux Nancy 19 H67 0 1 2 2 84 87
Val Ajaccio 15 H54 0 1 1 1
Nancy Le Havre 18 H42 1 1 3 1 90
Nimes Tours 16 H84 0 1 2 1 84 90
Paris Dijon 4 A33 0 2 0 3
Lens Niort 9 H52 0 1 1 1
Tours Le Havre 1 0 1 0 1
Le Havre Sochaux 3 H25 1 1 2 1
Lens Laval 5 H46 0 1 1 1
Niort Auxerre 7 H12 1 3 2 3
Metz Clermont 7 A34 0 2 2 2 84
Valenc. Le Havre 15 0 1 0 1
Laval Bourg 5 A45 0 2 1 3 83
Sochaux Creteil 3 A42 0 2 0 3
Bourg Sochaux 11 H45 1 1 2 1 90
Paris Brest 1 H83 0 1 1 1 83
Red Star Valenc. 17 H58 0 1 1 5 84 90
Laval Red Star 17 H65 0 1 2 1 85
Valenc. Bourg 4 H43 1 1 1 1
Niort Sochaux 12 H85 0 1 1 1 85
Evian Clermont 2 H8 1 1 2 2
Sochuax Metz 2 0 1 0 1
Niort Valenc. 4 0 1 0 1
Bourg Le Havre 17 H45 1 1 1 3 87