Who Scored First ? Should you look at the time of the Opening goal in Soccer ?

Posted on: September 13th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

http://www.simplesoccerstats.com/blog/

Got an email recently that said

I wonder if you have any stats on first goal scored in a game:

or

Anything thing relating to who scored the 1st goal ? AND HOW IT EFFECTS THE FINAL OUTCOME / RESULT

Not something we have looked at before and should have some data for this from the top leagues in Europe but this week we’ll just look at the Premier League.  First step is to see which team scores first in the Premier League.

Season Matches Home 1st 0-0 Away 1st
2012-13 380 51% 9% 39%
2013-14 380 54% 7% 39%
2014-15 380 54% 8% 37%
2015-16 380 52% 8% 40%
Total 1520 53% 8% 39%

As you can see the home team scores first in around half the matches and the away team in about 4/10 and a little less than 1/10 matches ends 0-0.

What happens when the home team scores first

Season Matches Home Win Draw Away Win
2012-13 195 69% 20% 11%
2013-14 205 76% 15% 10%
2014-15 207 73% 18% 9%
2015-16 196 71% 19% 9%
Total 803 72% 18% 10%

When the home team scores first in the past 4 seasons they have on average won 72% of the matches. What is interesting is that they have only drawn 18% of those matches and then lost 10% which is quite high based on the draw figure.

What happens when the away team scores first

Season Matches Home Win Draw Away Win
2012-13 150 21% 23% 57%
2013-14 148 16% 14% 70%
2014-15 142 15% 18% 68%
2015-16 152 11% 24% 64%
Total 592 16% 20% 65%

When the away team scores first the home team only comes back to win the game 16% of the time. 20% of the matches end in a draw and the home team goes on to win the game around 2/3 of the time.

 

Sotdoc response >

 

I can add the icing to the cake in terms of the data  >

 

In the Premier League 2014-2015 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 76% ended over 2.5 goals and 45% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 58% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 74%

The home teams won 71%, 13% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 16% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW.

42% of the early goal games  produced a goal(s) 80+ minutes

 

In the Premier League last  season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%

The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW

31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes

 

GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT 

26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1  5-4-3 home teams won 42%

 

In the Premier League in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes > lowered expectation of the way team fighting back and as a result there will be lowered expectation of a DRAW 

If we look at the opening goal by the home team in the Premier League last season in the 11-20 minutes time band  , 53% ended a home win ( 53% 2014-2015 ) , 28% ended a draw , and the away teams won 19%

The opening goal by the home team in the Premier League in the 11-20 minutes time band and some expectation of the away team fighting back which is why the % of games that end a draw will be much higher then in games in the Premier League where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes .

 

If we look at the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minute time band 08-09 -15-16  in the Premier League we can see that on average there will be higher expectation of the home team fighting back then in all games where the away team open the scoring in the Premier League

 

Home Win 20% 33% 22% 13% 23% 25% 22% 13%
Draw 27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25%
Away Win 53% 43% 49% 72% 49% 57% 61% 62%

Summary

 

It is not goals that change games but the time of the opening goal. cheers .