Whitehawk V Truro In Play Betting Review : Is a 2-0 Lead ” Precarious” ?

Posted on: November 9th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

When Truro opened the scoring on 9 minutes the draw was offered at 12/5 and we can see if that offer was perceived value by looking at a sample of games in National South where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band to define expectation of a draw as a result of the early goal metric.

In 2014-2015 in National South in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , 11% ended a draw and last season in the same profile 17% ended a DRAW

This season in National South in games where the away team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band 35% have ended a draw ( 2-4 1-1 2-2 2-2 4-4 1-1 1-3 2-3 1-5 2-2 1-2 0-6 0-3 0-5 0-2 2-2 1-5 1-3 2-1 1-3 3-3 1-2 3-2 1-1 0-6 0-2 2-4 2-2 1-1 3-1 0-2 1-2 2-2 3-1 )

Is a 2-0 lead ” PRECARIOUS ” Mr Tyler ?

At 0-2 Truro were offered at 1/2 which appeared to be massive value ;

Last season in National South in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band > 0-2 pathway and the away teams won 92% ( 1/0.92 = 1.09 )

This season in the National South in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band > 0-2 pathway > FT >

2-4 2-2 4-4 1-5 0-6 0-3 0-5 0-2 1-5 1-3 1-3 3-3 1-2 0-6 0-2 2-4 2-2 0-2 1-2  0-4-15 <> away teams won 79%

 

Since last season in the National South in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes > 0-2 pathway ;

0-7-50 <> away teams won 88% ( 1/0.88 = 1.14 ) and I think we can all agree that the offer of 1/2 for a Truro Win at 0-2 was perceived value .

 

Summary

Mr Tyler and the betting industry in play algorithm   tend to remember the times when that 2-0 lead evaporates  and forget the more numerous occasions when the  2-0 lead is converted to a win

 

footnote : last season in National South in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , 37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes ( Whitehawk scored on 86 minutes )