Where Have All the Goals Gone in the Bundesliga? Sotdoc response to Rory Smith of the New York Times ; ” Packing “

Posted on: April 9th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/sports/soccer/germany-bundesliga-scoring-decline.html?_r=0

Is Bundesliga average goal production a season in decline ?

This season in the Bundesliga the average goal production per game is 2.76 , last season 2.83, 2014-2015 2.75 2013-2014 3.16

Rory Smith advised that there has been a “subtle shift” in goal production in the Bundesliga when he simply wanted to discuss a new football metric

“Much of its work has focused on a metric it has developed called “packing,” which counts the number of players taken out of the game — outplayed, as Impect calls it — by a particular move, be it a dribble or a pass.”

Mr Smith et al have failed to acknowledge that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) in terms of the effect on accuracy as time decays.

In general the opening goal by the away team in the Bundesliga in the 0-20 minutes time band will result in acceleration of goal production and a high early away goal production in a season will raise the average goal production for the season.

2015/2016 2014/2015 2013/2014
Games 52 43 56
Over 2.5 75% 74% 80%
Over 3.5 56% 47% 61%

In the table above I have added all the games in the Bundesliga in the last 3 completed seasons where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band to define the % that ended over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals.

This season in Bundesliga in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band ;

2-3 0-2 2-2 0-1 1-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-1 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-2 1-1 4-1 3-1 1-4 1-1 2-5 1-3 0-3 2-2 1-2 1-1 2-1 3-3 1-5 1-3 3-1 0-2 <> 33 games with an average goal production of 3.24

Summary

In Bundesliga this season compared to previous seasons we are seeing a lower early away goal game production which as a result has effected the average goal production for the season.