Week 7 Premier League Football Betting Podcast Via @PeteNordsted
When I am reading a blog about football or listening to a podcast I want to be intellectually stimulated and the weekly Premier League podcast ( link above ) ticks all the boxes added to the dry humour .
Everton v Crystal Palace
Everton -0.75 and 2.75 goals = Everton -0.75 on asian handicap and the goal line i 2.75
Friday Night Football is back and this should be a cracker as Alan Pardew’s men return north following that amazing come from behind win at Sunderland last weekend. Both games went under 2.5 goals last season and that bet is 4-2 since Palace’s return to the Premiership. It was one apiece last season and the Eagles registered two 3-2 victories in their two other trips to Merseyside to take on the Toffees. At Selhurst Park it is a different story as the three meetings in south London has seen just one total goal, Everton’s winner in January 2015. I lean to the home team but after last weeks let down it won’t be for cold hard cash!
Swansea City v Liverpool
Liverpool -1.25 and 3 goals
Swansea matched Man City for long periods of their game last Saturday but it was the extra class of City that eventually saw them pull away and win by two clear goals. There have been five meetings of the sides in Wales since Swansea’s return to the top flight and the Welsh side have won two, there has been two draws and just one Liverpool victory. Over 2.5 goals is 7-3 in the last ten meetings of the sides with over 3.5 goals going 6-4 in that run. I lean to the underdog and over the total but if the game gets into a shootout Liverpool have far more ammunition to shoot than the Swans.
Hull City v Chelsea
Chelsea -1 and 2.75 goals
Hull were blown away last weekend when they travelled to Anfield and faced a Liverpool side who burst into life and they were hammered 5-1. Many teams may face that kind of wrath on Merseyside this season and I am not convinced that this Chelsea side has that kind of ‘blow away’ ability. When Hull were last in the Premiership Chelsea won four straight meetings of the sides and outscored the toothless Tigers 9-2. I sense this Chelsea team are more workmanlike though than the other top teams in this league so I am happy to take Hull plus a full goal and lean to the under on the goal line.
Sunderland v West Brom
Sunderland -0.25 and 2.25 goals
David Moyes had an awkward week of questions following that terrible 3-2 loss at home to Crystal Palace as they gave up a two goal lead to lose the game. There has been just one total goal in the last three meetings of these two teams and that was West Brom’s goal at the Hawthornes last October. In fact the Mackems have won just one of the last twelve meetings of the teams in EPL action since August 2010 and despite those recent low scoring trends it is 7-5 to the over 2.5 goals in those games. Those trends point to a slight lean to the over 2.25 and despite their lack of offensive talent I sense the defensive frailties of the home team help push this game over the total.
Watford v Bournemouth
Watford -0.25 and 2.5 goals
We saw two draws when these sides met last season including a goalless draw here at Vicarage Road in late February. Those games followed a pattern of four of the last five match ups of the teams ending all square and I can see a similar outcome here. That loss last time out at Burnley puts me on warning for the home team here and they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season. To be honest this is a game to avoid completely from a betting perspective.
West Ham United v Middlesbrough
West Ham -0.25 and 2.5 goals
The only reason the Hammers’ faithful are standing at present is because they have no seats! It is nothing to do with the quality of play on the field that gets them out of their seats……if they had any! Middlesbrough do look ripe for the taking here though at this price point but it is a brave man who backs them here given the negativity surrounding the club as a whole. Given the lacklustre look of the home attack I’d be happier siding with under 2.5 goals and it is one of my favoured bets of the week.
Manchester United v Stoke City
Manchester United -1.5 and 3 goals
United have sprung into life and Mark Hughes cannot afford another battering as this could help the Stoke board squeeze the trigger to fire him. There has been just one away win in the last eleven meetings of these two sides in Premiership action and United have won all eight EPL games at Old Trafford since Stoke entered the league in the 2008-09 season. Those games have seen over 2.5 goals 7-1 with the Red Devils outscoring the Potters 25-6. History says the home team giving up a start is a good bet but this could be Hughes’ last stand. One to skip for me.
Leicester City v Southampton
Leicester -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Given the strength of Southampton’s recent form I am surprised to see them receiving the handicap start here. Given the way both sides set up I would want to be on the away team in this fixture as each team is more adept at playing on the counter attack. Leicester won this game 1-0 at the back end of last season in a nervous game on their title run in. The game earlier in the season ended two apiece in a very open and exciting match up when the pressure was not on the Foxes. I lean to the away team as they seem to be well matched with the Foxes but they have had two days less preparation time for this game and that concerns me.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City
Manchester City -0.25 and 2.75 goals
Spurs did the double last season but under Pep Guardiola can you really see that happening again this season? Over 2.5 goals is on a 9-1 run in the last ten Premiership meetings of the sides with seven of those ten hitting an over 3.5 goals ticket. Despite losing last season City won at White Hart Lane 1-0 the season before and prior to that had scored eleven goals in their previous three trips to London to take on Spurs. Why do we want to try and reinvent the wheel? This goal line should be set at three and yet again I will re-iterate until we lose an under/over bet on Man City keep pounding that over!
Burnley v Arsenal
Arsenal -1.25 and 2.75 goals
These are the games that Arsenal like but last week they won a game, at home to Chelsea, that they have struggled in so we should have even greater confidence in the Gunners here. Laying a goal and a quarter though is not appealing to me. Arsenal squeaked out a 1-0 win their trip to Turf Moor back in April 2015 when Burnley last graced the Premiership. Can Burnley follow up that great MNF win over Watford here? The value is with the home team but that doesn’t always mean it’s the correct bet to make and I think I will wait on team news before deciding whether to pull the trigger on the home side.