Week 13 Premier League Football Betting Podcast Via Pete Nordsted
Burnley v Manchester City
Man City -1.5 goals and 3 goals
City have scored fifteen goals in six road games this season and they only time they did not score at least twice was in their 2-0 defeat at Spurs. Despite the best laid plans of inferior EPL teams on home soil at some point they come out of their defensive shape and City shred them. The only other games this season where they’ve not scored at least twice were all on home soil where it is easier for teams to sit off. How will Burnley react after they conceded four unanswered goals at West Brom last Monday? I lean City but giving up one and a half goals on the road here is a big ask as Burnley have been competitive on home soil this season.
Hull City v West Bromwich Albion
Scratch and 2.25 goals
This is one of those games that Hull will identify as a can win game but conceding three goals to Sunderland last weekend must put some doubt in their mind. West Brom are 4-5-4 on their travels over this season and last against sides in the bottom half of the table. The fact they scored four times on Monday Night Football should see them come into this game riding the crest of the wave. Off of a Scratch line I sense the value is with the Baggies but if this trends to West Brom -0.25 then I may just be tempted by the Tigers.
Leicester City v Middlesbrough
Leicester -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Leicester are 10-3-1 at home over this season and last against sides in the bottom half but Middlesbrough will be a tough nut to crack. The away team have conceded more than once in a game in just three fixtures this season and have allowed just four goals in their last six games including matches against Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City. Leicester have not become a bad side overnight but they are 3-3-6 so far this campaign and I really think they are missing Kasper Schmeichel in goal. He was the organiser in chief of that backline and in tight games against lesser opponents, Watford and West Brom, their lack of defensive organisation has been evident. If Boro pack their defensive line I cannot see Leicester breaching them at will so have to lean to the away side but it is with no real confidence.
Liverpool v Sunderland
Liverpool -2.25 and 3.5 goals
This game ended two apiece last season but the Mackems have won just one of the last thirteen meetings of the sides and none of the last eight. Even including that 2-2 draw Sunderland have scored just five goals in those last eight meetings. Liverpool have to score three goals to fully cover this line and I just cannot back a team on that kind of handicap line even against Sunderland especially with key man Adam Lallana out injured. This is a game where if you want to make a bet then you have to back the away team. Do this though then close your eyes, do not watch the game or follow it via any form of social media and check your betting balance at the end of the game. It may not be pretty but it could be profitable.
Swansea City v Crystal Palace
Scratch and 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals is 6-0 when the sides have met in EPL action since September 2013 and three of those games ended one apiece. In view of that I am very surprised to see this goal line set at 2.5 as opposed to 2.25 and that may be to do with the fact that Swansea home games have seen seventeen goals in just six games this season. The Swans are 0-2-4 at the Liberty Stadium this season but they are not that bad that this run will continue forever. Palace away games have conjoured up twenty goals in six games and their last four EPL outings have seen no fewer than eighteen games. However, both teams come into this game on terrible runs as Palace have lost five straight and Swansea have three draws and eight losses in their last eleven. This game is sure to be played in a nervous atmosphere as both teams realise the importance of three points even this early in the season. I am happy to follow the historical trends here and take the under 2.5 goals.
Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea -0.75 and 2.5 goals
Both teams won by one goal margins last weekend but it was far more crazy at White Hart Lane than at the Riverside where Chelsea ground out a very professional 1-0 win. Spurs showed great character to score two goals in the final few minutes to give them derby day bragging rights with a 3-2 win over the noisy neighbours from the Olympic Stadium. All but one of the last ten meetings of the sides in all competitions has seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 7-3. The recent record of Spurs at Stamford Bridge reads W0 D10 L18 so it should this price on the home team should not surprise anyone. I so want to back Spurs but how can you given those historical trends. A pass for me.
Watford v Stoke City
Watford -0.25 and 2.5 goals
Both meetings last season saw the away side emerging victorious as Stoke won this fixture 2-1 with Watford winning at the Britannia Stadium 2-0. Stoke may be just 1-3-2 on their travels this season but those two losses were in their first three road games and their last trips away from the Britannia Stadium saw them earn draws at Man United and West Ham with a victory coming at Hull. Watford have just one defeat in their last six EPL games and that was the 6-1 thrashing at Anfield. The goals line could offer some value here as Watford look less stable under Mazzari defensively but offer more attacking threat. Overs!
Arsenal v Bournemouth
Arsenal -1.25 and 3 goals
Arsenal completed a 2-0 double last season when the sides met in EPL action and over this season and last Arsenal are 19-5-2 against bottom half placed sides scoring 51 and conceding 14. Bournemouth lie ninth in the table so are those stats obsolete? I do not think so though as I see the Cherries as a bottom half side but they have burnt me lately so am wary of taking them on too much. Despite that imperious record above those twenty six games have brought just sixty five goals which is exactly two and a half goals per game. Under 3 goals would be my call but in truth at the current market lines I will be staying away from this one.
Manchester United v West Ham United
Man Utd -1.25 and 2.75 goals
Yes on Both Teams To Score has gone 7-2 in the last nine total meetings of the sides but West Ham have not won at Old Trafford since May 2007, eleven trips ago. The value looks to be with a West Ham side that although they are 1-0-5 on their travels this season do appear to be improving in recent weeks. This game does not offer any value in my opinion for two teams are quite untrustworthy. Maybe a cheeky Yes on the BTTS market for a bit of fun could liven this game up.
Southampton v Everton
Southampton -0.25 and 2.25 goals
Ronald Koeman returns to St Marys and he will be looking for a repeat of the 3-0 win that the Toffees earned on the south coast in August 2015. The Saints are gaining a lot of plaudits for their recent displays but they have picked up just one win in their last six games and that was a home win over Burnley. The Toffees though have won just one of their last matches and that was against West Ham and in that time they lost on the road at Burnley. Another game that is priced up quite fairly and in which I have no real opinion on.