Watford V Manchester United Review Via Game State Analysis / Conceding data ( Survival Analysis ) and 2nd Half Away Fight Back Data
At Half Time in the game today Manchester United were offered at 5/2 ( 1-0 ) and the key is to understand if that price was offering value
Before the game today Manchester United last 30 away league games when conceding the opening goal > 5-9-16 > United won 17% ( 5/1 ) so via conceding data the 5/2 offered at half time was not looking very appealing.
If we look at 1-0 half time to the home team in the Premier League since 08-09 , the away teams won 6% and if we look at Manchester United since 08-09 away when losing 1-0 Half time , United won 3/20 ( 15% ) and via game state analysis ( looking at the effect of the current score ) Manchester United were also not offering any value at Half Time
” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,” < far too simplistic to make that statement and if we look at the effect of the 2nd half fightback metric by the away team in the Premier League in games where the home team are winning 1-0 HT > 1-1 pathway with the 2nd goal 46-70 minutes we see that there will be lowered expectation of an away win even if the away teams are the perceived stronger teams
At 1-1 Manchester United were offered at 6/5 when they should have been around 4/1 > so I backed Watford + 0.5 on the asian handicap.
In the table below I have aded the last 70 games in the Premier League where the home team was winning 1-0 at half time and the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band and 79% ended over 2.5 goals
The home team won 42%, 37% ended a draw and the away teams won 21%
If you were watching the Watford game today and betting in running then it is likely that if you believe that ” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,” , you backed Manchester United
My Eureka game arrived a few seasons ago when Bolton were playing at home to Arsenal ( 1-0 HT ) and at 1-1 in the 2nd half , the commentator advised that arsenal were more likely to score the third goal just as I was backing Bolton + o.5 on the asian handicap with Arsenal offered at odds on to win.
Bolton won 2-1
footnote > you can find my in play analysis in real time for free > gooners guide forum > NAPE
|E0||1516||2016-05-10||West Ham||Man United||1-0||3-2|
|E0||1415||2014-12-20||Aston Villa||Man United||1-0||1-1|
|E0||1415||2014-10-20||West Brom||Man United||1-0||2-2|
|E0||1213||2012-11-10||Aston Villa||Man United||1-0||2-3|
|E0||1112||2012-04-30||Man City||Man United||1-0||1-0|