Watford V Manchester United Review Via Game State Analysis / Conceding data ( Survival Analysis ) and 2nd Half Away Fight Back Data

Posted on: September 18th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

At Half Time in the game today Manchester United were offered at 5/2 ( 1-0 ) and the key is to understand if that price was offering value

Before the game today  Manchester United last 30 away league games  when conceding the opening goal > 5-9-16 > United won 17% ( 5/1 ) so via conceding data the 5/2 offered at half time was not looking very appealing.

If we look at 1-0 half time to the home team in the Premier League since 08-09 , the away teams won 6% and if we look at Manchester United since 08-09 away  when losing 1-0 Half time  , United won 3/20 ( 15% ) and via game state analysis ( looking at the effect of the current score )  Manchester United were also not offering any value at Half Time 

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,” < far too simplistic to make that statement and if we look at the effect of the 2nd half fightback metric by the away team in the Premier League in games where the home team are winning 1-0 HT > 1-1 pathway with the 2nd goal 46-70 minutes we see that there will be lowered expectation of an away win even if the away teams are the perceived stronger teams

At 1-1 Manchester United were offered at 6/5 when they should have been around 4/1 > so I backed Watford + 0.5 on the asian handicap.

In the table below I have aded the last 70 games in the Premier League where the home team was winning 1-0 at half time and the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band and 79% ended over 2.5 goals

The home team won 42%, 37% ended a draw and the away teams won 21%  Eek 

 http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/the-effect-of-the-2nd-half-fightback-in-the-premier-leagues-in-games-where-the-home-team-were-winning-1-0-half-time/

Summary

If you were watching the Watford game today and betting in running then it is likely that if you believe that ” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,” , you  backed Manchester United 

My Eureka game arrived a few seasons ago when Bolton were playing  at home to Arsenal  ( 1-0 HT ) and at 1-1 in the 2nd half , the commentator advised that  arsenal were more likely to score the third goal just  as I was backing Bolton + o.5 on the asian handicap with Arsenal offered at odds on to win.

Bolton won 2-1 Big Grin

 

footnote > you can find my in play analysis in real time for free > gooners guide forum > NAPE

 

 

E0 1516 2016-05-10 West Ham Man United 1-0 3-2
E0 1415 2015-04-18 Chelsea Man United 1-0 1-0
E0 1415 2014-12-20 Aston Villa Man United 1-0 1-1
E0 1415 2014-10-20 West Brom Man United 1-0 2-2
E0 1314 2014-05-11 Southampton Man United 1-0 1-1
E0 1314 2014-02-01 Stoke Man United 1-0 2-1
E0 1314 2013-10-05 Sunderland Man United 1-0 1-2
E0 1314 2013-09-01 Liverpool Man United 1-0 1-0
E0 1213 2012-11-10 Aston Villa Man United 1-0 2-3
E0 1112 2012-04-30 Man City Man United 1-0 1-0
E0 1112 2012-02-05 Chelsea Man United 1-0 3-3
E0 1112 2012-01-04 Newcastle Man United 1-0 3-0
E0 1011 2011-05-14 Blackburn Man United 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2010-01-09 Birmingham Man United 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2009-12-19 Fulham Man United 1-0 3-0
E0 0910 2009-08-19 Burnley Man United 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2009-05-13 Wigan Man United 1-0 1-2
E0 0809 2009-03-21 Fulham Man United 1-0 2-0
E0 0809 2008-11-08 Arsenal Man United 1-0 2-1