Using Survival Analysis to make in play Soccer Betting Decisions

Posted on: September 16th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Survival analysis is generally defined as a set of methods for analyzing data where the outcome variable is the time until the occurrence of an event of interest. The event can be death, occurrence of a disease, marriage, divorce, etc.

If we look at  Survival analysis in terms of Soccer the question we need to ask is how likely are a team to a hold a lead ?

“Survival Analysis of the Timing of Goals in Soccer Games”

Submitted by

LAM CHUNG SANG
for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong
in September 2005

 

https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/40969/6/FullText.pdf

 

Conclusion 

 

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”

Conclusion 

 

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”

 

If the above conclusion is correct then in effect there is no in play betting edge because  in play market prices  would be  spot on in terms of expectation of the other team fighting back .

 

Nape response >

I looked at the effect of the time of the opening goal  with attention to the early goal  which I define as the opening goal by the home team 0-10 minutes / opening goal by the away team 0-20 minutes  in individual leagues added to the major half time game states ( 1-0 /0-1 1-1 0-1 ) to understand if teams that are leading are likely to face a fightback from the other team .

Many football betting blogs will discuss the strength of teams but I have never seen any other blogs apart from Sotdoc.co.uk looking to see if there may be variables in play that can weaken the perceived strength of a team .

For example if we look at Manchester City in the League when losing 1-0 at half time  AWAY , they last one a game in that profile in 1992 

 

Manchester City away in the Premier league since 2008-2009 when losing 1-0 half time >

 

0 1415 2015-04-06 Crystal Palace Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1415 2014-10-25 West Ham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1314 2013-11-10 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 1314 2013-10-27 Chelsea Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1213 2013-03-16 Everton Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 1213 2012-08-26 Liverpool Man City 1-0 2-2
E0 1011 2011-02-12 Man United Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1011 2011-01-22 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0910 2010-03-14 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2010-02-06 Hull Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0910 2009-12-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 3-0
E0 0910 2009-10-18 Wigan Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2009-10-05 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0809 2009-05-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0809 2009-04-04 Arsenal Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 0809 2009-03-15 Chelsea Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2009-01-31 Stoke Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2008-12-28 Blackburn Man City 1-0 2-2

 

In the majority of the above games , the betting industry and the in play punters had some expectation of Manchester City fighting back > why ? < well <

they are seduced by >

 

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”

 

We can look at Survival analysis in Soccer on a league  level by looking at the early goal and expectation of the game going to 1-1 or 0-2 /2-0 or staying at 1-0.

In the Premier League last season in games where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes ,

GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT 

26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1  5-4-3 home teams won 42%

 

We can see from above that the pathway > 2-0 is more likely then > 1-1 .

If we look at the pathway in ligue 2 in games where the away team open the scoring 0-20 last season ;

GAME PATHWAY

8/59 0-1 FT

36/59 > 1-1  15-16-5 <> away team won 14%

15/59 > 0-2  0-3-12 <> away team won 80%

and we can see that the team that concede are more likely to score the 2nd goal

 

Summary

 

If you look at individual leagues around the globe added to the time of the opening goal and the game state ( current score ) you will find which has been noted in several blogs that the team that concedes will have more shots , but they failed to notice that the shots in general will be of a low accuracy Wall  which is one reason why  a team does not always score more goals  when they are behind and the other main reason which has never been developed is that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened by variables that may occur such as the game state ( current score )
footnote : the away team opening the scoring late in a game is more likely to score the 2nd goal then > 1-1 pathway