Trading the Correct Score In Play : The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time in Serie B

Posted on: January 24th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 64 games in Serie B where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ;

52-9-3 home teams won 81%

Game Pathway

18/64 1-0 FT

> 2-0 30/64 29-1-0

> 1-1 16/64 5-8-3

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < well not in this profile. The 1-1 pathway in the table below with the second goal in the 46-70 minutes time band was seen in 13/64 ( 20% ) with 3/13 ending 1-1. Trading Strategy In Serie B in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1. 1-0 half time to the home team in Serie B added to the early goal metric and 1-1 with a goal in 46-70 minutes time band will not be a common event and if this does happen then 1-1 full time will be an unlikely outcome. If you followed the above strategy in the last 64 games below then you would have lost 3/64 trades ( 5%) which is not too shabby T HT T+1 FT Perugia Cesena 10 1 0 A47 3 3 Latina Hellas 10 1 0 H90 2 0 Cittadella Bari 9 1 0 H78 2 0 Avellino Ben 7 1 0 A82 1 1 Cittadella Latina 4 1 0 H74 2 1 Bari Trapani 9 1 0 H64 3 0 Latina Pisa 8 1 0 A62 1 1 Spal Carpi 8 1 0 H50 3 1 Carpi Latina 5 1 0 H52 2 0 Novara Sal 7 1 0 1 0 Ternana Pisa 6 1 0 1 0 Brescia Fros 9 1 0 H63 2 0 Novara Medina 4 1 0 H64 4 0 Sal Como 5 1 0 1 0 Cesena Novara 5 1 0 1 0 Spezia Novara 8 1 0 1 0 Entella Ternana 8 1 0 H53 2 2 Cesena Latina 5 1 0 H70 3 0 Spezia Trapani 5 1 0 A52 1 2 Novara Bari 4 1 0 A57 1 2 Entella Spezia 6 1 0 A51 2 2 Perugia Latina 2 1 0 H62 2 0 Entella Perugia 7 1 0 A87 2 1 Spezia Lanciano 7 1 0 H86 2 0 Avellino Entella 4 1 0 H86 2 0 Cesena Ternana 8 1 0 H76 4 0 Perugia Modena 8 1 0 1 0 Trapani Modena 7 1 0 A64 2 1 Novara Brescia 4 1 0 H52 4 0 Bari Sal. 7 1 0 A70 2 1 Entella Sal. 9 1 0 1 0 Brescia Vercelli 2 1 0 H60 2 0 Latina Ascoli 4 1 0 1 0 Ascoli Entella 4 1 0 1 0 Trapani Pro Vercelli 4 1 0 H49 2 1 Entella Latina 6 1 0 H74 2 0 Perugia Trapani 4 1 0 1 0 Trapani Virtus 3 1 0 1 0 Frosinone Carpi 10 1 0 1 0 Trapani Frosinone 7 1 0 A56 3 1 Crotone Spezia 8 1 0 H56 2 0 Avellino Frosinone 5 1 0 H51 3 0 Brescia Frosinone 7 1 0 H53 3 1 Ternana Crotone 5 1 0 H52 2 1 Cittadella Catania 3 1 0 H54 3 2 Prescara Varese 4 1 0 H51 2 0 Varesse Crotone 4 1 0 1 0 Catania Latina 10 1 0 1 0 Cittadella Latina 6 1 0 A67 1 1 Carpi Pro 8 1 0 1 0 Bologna Cittadella 2 1 0 1 0 Trapani Vicenza 4 1 0 A60 2 1 Spezia Bari 9 1 0 H90 2 0 Bari Juve 9 1 0 H70 3 0 Avellino Crotone 9 1 0 H90 2 0 Carpi Modena 7 1 0 A55 2 2 Crotone Cittadella 2 1 0 H80 2 0 Trapani Modena 10 1 0 H69 2 0 Reggina Avellino 2 1 0 A57 1 1 Trapani Crotone 7 1 0 1 0 Carpi Varese 4 1 0 1 0 Juve Bari 2 1 0 A72 1 1 Reggina Spezia 1 1 0 A49 1 2 Empoli Lanciano 10 1 0 H63 3 0