Tottenham Hotspur F.C. Early Home goal Data

Posted on: October 3rd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 25 games in the Premier League where Spurs opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band ;

 

GAME PATHWAY

1/25 1-0 FT

> 2-0 16/25 <>  16-0-0 > is a 2-0 lead precarious Mr Tyler ?

> 1-1  8/25  <>  5-2-1 

22-2-1 <> Spurs won 88% 1/0.88 = 1.14 and at 1-0 against Manchester City , Spurs were offered at 1.72 which was considerable perceived value .

Manchester City at 1-0 were offered at 10/11 to score the 2nd goal of the game and we can see in this profile in the Premier League that the team trailing are NOT more likely to score more goals , indeed the team that opens the scoring in this profile is more likely to score more goals which is why > 2-0 pathway will be far more likely then > 1-1 in the Premier League .

Devil’s advocate ” you need to consider the perceived strength of a team ” > people have a problem grasping the fact that there may be variables in play that can weaken the perceived strength of a team and if we look at Manchester City away when conceding the opening goal 0-10 minutes in the Premier League they have a chronic record in terms of expectation of a fightback  and in last 23 games that have fit that profile City lost a whopping 82%

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/manchester-city-conceding-the-opening-goal-away-in-the-league-in-the-0-10-minutes-time-band-since-2003-2004-2/

Summary 

How does the time of the opening goal effect expectation of the team that scores the opening goal SURVIVING = holding onto the advantage ?

 

 

T T+1 HT FT
Spurs Man City 9 H37 2 0 2 0
Spurs Bourne 1 H16 2 0 3 0
Spurs Villa 3 H45 2 0 3 1
Spurs Leicester 6 H13 2 1 4 3
Spurs Swansea 7 A19 1 1 3 2
Spurs Sunderland 3 A31 1 1 2 1
Spurs Everton 1 A15 1 1 2 2
Spurs Newcastle 5 A24 1 1 2 1
Spurs Liverpool 7 H16 2 0 2 1
Spurs Fulham 2 H63 1 0 2 0
Spurs Newcastle 4 H6 4 0 5 0
Spurs Chelsea 8 A23 1 1 1 1
Spurs Bolton 7 H50 1 0 3 0
Spurs Liverpool 7 H66 1 0 4 0
Spurs Bolton 6 A55 1 0 2 1
Spurs Arsenal 10 H47 1 0 2 1
Spurs Wigan 9 H51 1 0 9 1
Spurs Man UTD 1 A25 1 2 1 3
Spurs Boro 9 H14 3 0 4 0
Spurs Stoke 8 H21 3 0 3 1
Spurs Blackburn 9 1 0 1 0
Spurs West Ham 8 H11 2 0 4 0
Spurs Sunderland 2 H90 1 0 2 0
Spurs Reading 7 A16 1 1 6 4
Spurs Derby 2 H6 3 0 4 0