The Impact of the Opening Goal by the Away Team in the 0-20 Minutes Time Band in Ligue 2 and 2-1 Half Time Game State to the Home Team

Posted on: October 3rd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Since 2008-2009 in Ligue 2 there have been 29 games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and the home team were winning 2-1 half time game state ;

24-0-5 > have a look at survival analysis which is the ability/ lack of ability of a team to ‘ fightback ‘ when they concede the opening goal > you need to understand how the time of the opening goal added to the game state as time decays will effect accuracy in an individual league .

The ‘academics” who have discussed the high % of games that end a draw in football do not understand game state and the effect of the opening goal because they believe that there is a large % of games that end a draw in football as a result of teams fighting back > 1-1 and the actual reason is because in general football produces a low goal production which will raise the expectation of a game ending a draw .

Your focus should be looking at how a game of football can result in expectation of acceleration of goal production in terms of the factors that may cause this to happen as time decays in a game and as a result there will be lowered expectation of a draw

In the 29 games below 62% ended over 4.5 goals > 1/0.62 = 1.61 < at half time the offer in this profile in ligue 2 for over 4.5 goals will be around 2.25 because the betting industry will have lowered expectation of goal production in the 2nd half then they should have given the events of the first half and they will also have much higher expectation of a draw then they should have . 48% produced a goal 80 +
Le Havre
3 – 2
Lorient View events More info
0 – 1
14′ F. Selemani
J. Mateta 33′
1 – 1
A. Bonnet 43′
2 – 1
J. Fontaine 70′
3 – 1
3 – 2
80′ F. Lemoine

Auxerre
2 – 3
Troyes View events More info
0 – 1
11′ K. Azamoum
M. Yattara 16′
1 – 1
V. Sanè 19′
2 – 1
2 – 2
48′ T. Dingome
2 – 3
73′ B. Nivet

Strasbourg
4 – 2
Ajaccio View events More info
0 – 1
15′ M. Madri
D. Liénard 17′
1 – 1
K. Boutaïb 27′
2 – 1
K. Boutaïb 58′
3 – 1
B. Guillaume 66′
4 – 1
4 – 2
86′ M. Madri

Tours
3 – 1
Sochaux View events More info
0 – 1
18′ M. Thuram
I. Konaté (OG) 31′
1 – 1
I. Bennacer 42′
2 – 1
Denis Bouanga 90′
3 – 1

Red Star
3 – 2
Dijon View events More info
0 – 1
14′ L. Diony
Danilson 24′
1 – 1
A. Ngamukol 39′
2 – 1
H. Bouazza (PG) 80′
3 – 1
3 – 2
85′ C. Jullien

Le Havre
3 – 2
Valenciennes View events More info
0 – 1
12′ Nuno Da Costa
L. Mousset 21′
1 – 1
L. Mousset 41′
2 – 1
J. Mendes 46′
3 – 1
3 – 2
88′ I. Mbenza

Arles-Avignon
4 – 1
Orléans View events More info
0 – 1
6′ J. Mendy
T. Savanier 26′
1 – 1
K. Kone (PG) 45′
2 – 1
K. Kone 46′
3 – 1
S. Gigot 57′
4 – 1

Tours
3 – 2
Le Havre View events More info
0 – 1
10′ M. Le Bihan
I. Tandia 16′
1 – 1
C. Kouakou 28′
2 – 1
B. Bergougnoux 90′
3 – 1
3 – 2
90′ J. Leroy

Tours
2 – 3
Auxerre View events More info
0 – 1
14′ V. Gragnic
C. Kouakou 29′
1 – 1
B. Bergougnoux (PG) 32′
2 – 1
2 – 2
66′ F. Diarra
2 – 3
73′ V. Gragnic

Istres
2 – 3
Caen View events More info
0 – 1
17′ M. Duhamel
J. Leroy 22′
1 – 1
B. Dabo 25′
2 – 1
2 – 2
64′ N. Kanté
2 – 3
88′ M. Duhamel

Tours
5 – 2
Châteauroux View events More info
0 – 1
9′ C. Maboulou
B. Ketkeophomphone 35′
1 – 1
Y. Adnane 37′
2 – 1
B. Ketkeophomphone 68′
3 – 1
3 – 2
76′ K. Dupuis (PG)
X. Chavalerin 85′
4 – 2
A. Delort (PG) 88′
5 – 2

Tours
4 – 2
Metz View events More info
0 – 1
4′ D. Sakho
B. Ketkeophomphone 18′
1 – 1
B. Santamaria 19′
2 – 1
2 – 2
56′ J. Choplin
C. Kouakou 86′
3 – 2
B. Bergougnoux 90′
4 – 2

Nîmes
2 – 1
Caen View events More info
0 – 1
14′ F. Fajr
P. Bouby 22′
1 – 1
S. Benmeziane 42′
2 – 1

Nantes
2 – 1
Caen View events More info
0 – 1
8′ M. Duhamel
I. Cissokho 38′
1 – 1
G. Cichero 43′
2 – 1

Caen
3 – 1
Auxerre View events More info
0 – 1
15′ O. Kapo
M. Duhamel 28′
1 – 1
L. Nabab 32′
2 – 1
L. Agouazi 88′
3 – 1

Bastia
2 – 1
Amiens SC View events More info
0 – 1
10′ Y. Touzghar
J. Rothen 17′
1 – 1
T. Mienniel (OG) 40′
2 – 1

Le Havre
3 – 4
Vannes View events More info
0 – 1
6′ N. Diguiny
L. Nestor 24′
1 – 1
Y. Rivière 45′
2 – 1
2 – 2
57′ E. Mohamed Ben (PG)
B. Jovial 67′
3 – 2
3 – 3
72′ E. Mohamed Ben
3 – 4
74′ F. Jarsalé

Vannes
3 – 1
Nîmes View events More info
0 – 1
5′ M. Mostefa
M. Mostefa (OG) 13′
1 – 1
E. Mohamed Ben 33′
2 – 1
V. Reset 85′
3 – 1

Tours
2 – 3
Istres View events More info
0 – 1
9′ N. Akrour
K. Lejeune (PG) 12′
1 – 1
P. Oniangué 22′
2 – 1
2 – 2
65′ N. Akrour (PG)
2 – 3
81′ R. Nouri

Vannes
2 – 1
Laval View events More info
0 – 1
13′ J. Lebouc
L. Loval 29′
1 – 1
P. Leugueun 40′
2 – 1

Nîmes
2 – 1
Strasbourg View events More info
0 – 1
11′ M. Stošić (OG)
B. Moukandjo 19′
1 – 1
J. Mandrichi 40′
2 – 1

Nantes
2 – 1
Strasbourg View events More info
0 – 1
4′ D. Ledy
M. Zerka 23′
1 – 1
S. Darbion (PG) 43′
2 – 1

Strasbourg
3 – 2
Reims View events More info
0 – 1
6′ S. Arrache
S. Pelé 32′
1 – 1
R. Cohade (PG) 36′
2 – 1
R. Cohade 80′
3 – 1
3 – 2
87′ B. Thiam

Montpellier
3 – 2
Brest View events More info
0 – 1
6′ Basile de Carvalho
G. Bocaly 23′
1 – 1
A. Costa 40′
2 – 1
S. Camara 62′
3 – 1
3 – 2
66′ A. El Jadeyaoui

Vannes
2 – 1
Amiens SC View events More info
0 – 1
8′ T. Giresse
P. Talmont 22′
1 – 1
J. Lebouc 30′
2 – 1

Tours
4 – 1
Nîmes View events More info
0 – 1
12′ J. Mandrichi
O. Giroud 37′
1 – 1
C. Keșerü 44′
2 – 1
Bocundji Cá 62′
3 – 1
C. Keșerü 87′
4 – 1

Metz
3 – 2
Ajaccio View events More info
0 – 1
9′ L. Guerriero
V. Bessat 25′
1 – 1
P. Cissé (PG) 45′
2 – 1
2 – 2
48′ E. Dohin
N. Jestrovic 77′
3 – 2

Bastia
6 – 2
Ajaccio View events More info
0 – 1
10′ J. Viale
H. Camara 15′
1 – 1
F. Jau 17′
2 – 1
H. Camara 53′
3 – 1
F. Jau 66′
4 – 1
4 – 2
67′ C. Diabaté
S. Barthélémy 70′
5 – 2
P. André 74′
6 – 2

Montpellier
3 – 1
Vannes View events More info
0 – 1
13′ P. Delhommeau
K. Aït-Fana 22′
1 – 1
V. Montaño 38′
2 – 1
J. Sabo 65′
3 – 1