The Impact of the Early Home Goal Metric and 1-0 Half Time in the MLS ; Laying 1-1 Correct Score

Posted on: July 3rd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < have a look at individual leagues and the effect of the time of the opening goal >

Last 64 games in the MLS where the home team winning 1-0 HT game state with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band >

5/64 ended 1-1 FT > 8% < a massive in play edge in this profile in MLS to exploit >

In games that are 1-0 at half time to the home team MLS with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , back against ( lay ) 1-1 correct score and you will need to have access to an exchange account and if the game is still 1-0 on 69 minutes then you should trade out by backing 1-1 correct score to avoid the possibility of a late fightback goal. < > 1-1 in this profile in MLS = survival analysis in the 46-70 time band will not be a common event < and if it does happen then 1-1 FT will be a rare event 15/64 ( 23%) produced a fightback goal (1-1 ) in the 46-70 minutes time band and 2/15 ended 1-1, GAME PATHWAY

15/64 1-0 FT

30/64 > 2-0 29-1-0

19/64 > 1-1 8-8-3 < you should be able to see why New England should not have been priced at 6/5 to score goal 2 at HT , 30% = 3.33 < 9/4 + 52-9-3 > home teams won 81% = 1,23 > lowered expectation of the away team fighting back for the simple reason that > 2-0 will be more likely then > 1-1 in this profile in the MLS = survival analysis

52% ended over 2.5 goals

Philadelphia Union
3 – 0
New England
C. Sapong (PG) 4′
1 – 0
Ilsinho 48′ > at HT Philadelphia were offered at 13/10 to score goal 2 and New England at 6/5
2 – 0
R. Alberg 78′
3 – 0

Seattle Sounders
1 – 0
Portland Timbers
C. Roldan 4′
1 – 0

Houston Dynamo
2 – 0
SJ Earthquakes
E. Torres (PG) 9′
1 – 0
A. Elis 72′
2 – 0

Orlando City
2 – 1
LA Galaxy
W. Johnson 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
83′ R. Alessandrini
C. Larin 90′
2 – 1

Sporting KC
3 – 1
Colorado Rapids
S. Sinovic 6′
1 – 0
Gerso Fernandes 58′
2 – 0
D. Dwyer 85′
3 – 0
3 – 1
90′ K. Doyle (PG)

Atlanta United
4 – 0
Chicago Fire
B. Vincent (OG) 4′
1 – 0
J. Martínez 60′
2 – 0
H. Villalba 67′
3 – 0
J. Martínez 82′
4 – 0

Columbus Crew
3 – 0
Chicago Fire
H. Afful 8′
1 – 0
Justin Meram 50′
2 – 0
D. Duka 59′
3 – 0

New England
3 – 1
Sporting KC
K. Kamara 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
49′ D. Dwyer
K. Ellis (OG) 75′
2 – 1
J. Agudelo 83′
3 – 1

New York City
1 – 0
LA Galaxy
David Villa 6′
1 – 0

Vancouver Whit…
2 – 2
Colorado Rapids
K. Waston 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
59′ K. Doyle
C. Techera (PG) 87′
2 – 1
2 – 2
90′ A. Sjöberg

Toronto
1 – 0
Chicago Fire
J. Morrow 9′
1 – 0

New York City
2 – 0
New York RB
J. Harrison 8′
1 – 0
David Villa 66′
2 – 0

Orlando City
3 – 2
Toronto
C. Larin 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ J. Hamilton
A. Winter 83′
2 – 1
2 – 2
90′ J. Morrow
Kaká (PG) 90′
3 – 2

Chicago Fire
1 – 0
Houston Dynamo
A. Álvarez 3′
1 – 0

Dallas
2 – 0
Seattle Sounders
M. Díaz (PG) 3′
1 – 0
M. Barrios 80′
2 – 0

Montreal Impact
2 – 2
Colorado Rapids
D. Drogba 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ S. Gashi
M. Tissot 50′
2 – 1
2 – 2
72′ B. Burling

Philadelphia Union
2 – 0
Houston Dynamo
T. Barnetta 3′
1 – 0
C. Sapong 63′
2 – 0

Montreal Impact
3 – 0
New England
J. Venegas 5′
1 – 0
D. Drogba 60′
2 – 0
D. Duka 76′
3 – 0

Orlando City
3 – 1
Sporting KC
A. Winter 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
59′ K. Németh
B. Rochez 66′
2 – 1
A. Winter 72′
3 – 1

and

T HT FT T+1
Seattle Toronto 6 1 0 2 1 A59
Chicago Dallas 4 1 0 2 0
Sporting Houston 6 1 0 1 1 A78
Dallas New England 9 1 0 3 0
New York RB 6 1 0 1 3 A47
Portland DC 5 1 0 1 0
LA Real 7 1 0 1 0
Toronto Portland 5 1 0 1 0
Columbus Chicago 8 1 0 2 2 H55
Houston Portland 9 1 0 3 1 A48
New England New York 9 1 0 2 1 H60
LA Galaxy New York 8 1 0 4 0
Columbus Montreal 2 1 0 2 0
DC United Philadelphia 10 1 0 1 0
Dallas Seattle 8 1 0 3 1 A58
New York Seattle 1 1 0 4 1 H54
Toronto Chicago 3 1 0 2 2 A70
New England Colorado 10 1 0 3 0
DC United Toronto 8 1 0 3 0
Philadelphia New York 9 1 0 3 1 H51
Sporting KC New York 9 1 0 1 1 A50
LA Galaxy Philadelphia 2 1 0 4 1 H49
Colorado Montreal 5 1 0 4 1 H54
Seattle SJ 8 1 0 1 0
Sporting KC Columbus 10 1 0 2 0
Portland Chivas 7 1 0 1 1 A79
DC United New York 4 1 0 1 0
Sporting KC DC 7 1 0 1 0
Houston Montreal 6 1 0 1 0
DC United Toronto 10 1 0 1 1 A60
Chivas Colorado 5 1 0 1 1 A80
DC United New England 8 1 0 1 2 A54
Columbus Portland 4 1 0 1 0
Whitecaps Seattle 4 1 0 2 0
Philadelphia New York 7 1 0 3 0
Columbus Chicago 7 1 0 1 2 A52
Chicago DC United 9 1 0 2 0
Philadelphia Chicago 3 1 0 1 0
Colorado Real Salt 5 1 0 1 0
Sporting KC Montreal 5 1 0 2 0
Whitecaps Columbus 6 1 0 2 1 A46
Colorado Houston 9 1 0 2 0
Columbus Toronto 4 1 0 2 1 H58
Seattle La Galaxy 6 1 0 4 0
Houston Montreal 7 1 0 3 0