The Impact of the Early Home Goal in Ligue 2 2015-2016 V 2016-2017

Posted on: July 20th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Ligue 2 2015-2016 season in games where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 62% ended over 2.5 goals

Both teams scored in 67% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 55%

The home teams won 71.4%, 21.4% ended a draw and the away teams won 7.2% < low expectation of the away teams winning . 45% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes GAME PATHWAY

4/42 1-0 FT

21/42 > 2-0 <> 20-1-0 home team won 95%

17/42 > 1-1 <> 6-8-3 home teams won 35%

Ligue 2 2016-2017 season in games where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 68% ended over 2.5 goals

Both Teams scored in 61% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 61%

39% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

29-6-6 < home teams won 71% < lowered expectation of the away team fighting back = survival analysis < as a result in this profile in ligue 2 < lowered expectation of a draw which you can exploit in play > with the caveat that 1-0 HT to the home team in ligue 2 added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and you will see some draw bias < GAME PATHWAY

5/41 1-0 FT

22/41 > 2-0 22-0-0 home teams won 100%

14/41 > 1-1 2-6-6 home teams won 14%

Last 83 games in Ligue 2 where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band

9/83 1-0 FT

43/83 > 2-0 42-1-0 home teams won 98% > is a 2-0 lead precarious Mr Tyler ?

31/83 > 1-1 8-14-9 home teams won 26%

59-15-9 home teams won 71% 1/0.71 = 2/5

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”

in terms of survival analysis and football > do not take a blanket approach > in ligue 2 in games where the home team open the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band > 2-0 pathway will be more likely then > 1-1 hence the lowered expectation of the away team fighting back

Lens
3 – 1
Niort View events More info
K. Erasmus 7′
1 – 0
Cristian López 15′
2 – 0
2 – 1
58′ A. Dona N’Doh (PG)
Cristian López 90′
3 – 1

Le Havre
4 – 1
Orléans View events More info
G. Gimbert 8′
1 – 0
A. Gory 20′
2 – 0
2 – 1
45′ M. Barreto
E. Assifuah 70′
3 – 1
N. Julan 88′
4 – 1

Amiens SC
3 – 0
Laval View events More info
S. Koita 10′
1 – 0
H. Manzala 14′
2 – 0
E. Bourgaud 85′
3 – 0

Nîmes
3 – 1
Ajaccio View events More info
A. Briançon 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
33′ M. Madri (PG)
R. Ripart 62′
2 – 1
S. Thioub 84′
3 – 1

Brest
2 – 3
Nîmes View events More info
A. Coeff 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
27′ R. Ripart
1 – 2
77′ O. Cissokho
1 – 3
78′ O. Cissokho
Z. Diallo 83′
2 – 3

Sochaux
1 – 2
Amiens SC View events More info
Y. Touzghar 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
25′ T. NDombèlé
1 – 2
82′ T. NDombèlé

Orléans
4 – 0
Red Star View events More info
A. Gomis 3′
1 – 0
B. Youssouf 37′
2 – 0
A. Gomis 55′
3 – 0
A. Gomis 63′
4 – 0

Tours
3 – 0
Clermont View events More info
F. Diarra 3′
1 – 0
Denis Bouanga 44′
2 – 0
Denis Bouanga 90′
3 – 0

Ajaccio
3 – 1
Niort View events More info
M. Madri 5′
1 – 0
P. Cissé 17′
2 – 0
2 – 1
29′ R. Grange
R. Nouri 42′
3 – 1

Amiens SC
2 – 0
Le Havre View events More info
T. Monconduit 4′
1 – 0
H. Manzala 55′
2 – 0

Reims
1 – 1
Strasbourg View events More info
R. Oudin 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
23′ Felipe Saad

Valenciennes
2 – 0
Troyes View events More info
L. Mothiba 3′
1 – 0
S. Ciss 54′
2 – 0

Gazélec Ajaccio
2 – 3
Bourg-en-Bresse View events More info
S. Benrahma 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
75′ K. Hoggas
1 – 2
78′ L. Boussaha
S. Benrahma 89′
2 – 2
2 – 3
90′ G. Heinry

Tours
3 – 1
Red Star View events More info
F. Miguel 3′
1 – 0
F. Diarra 29′
2 – 0
2 – 1
37′ S. Keita
Denis Bouanga 90′
3 – 1

Troyes
4 – 2
Orléans View events More info
T. Dingome 3′
1 – 0
K. Azamoum 38′
2 – 0
A. Niane 40′
3 – 0
C. Ben Saada 41′
4 – 0
4 – 1
56′ L. Nabab
4 – 2
68′ P. Bouby

Brest
3 – 0
Laval View events More info
L. Nganioni 8′
1 – 0
H. Diallo 28′
2 – 0
J. Faussurier 55′
3 – 0

Amiens SC
2 – 1
Bourg-en-Bresse View events More info
R. Soumah 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
31′ J. Bègue (PG)
H. Manzala 65′
2 – 1

Gazélec Ajaccio
3 – 1
Troyes View events More info
Y. Court 3′
1 – 0
J. Giraudon (OG) 43′
2 – 0
O. Kemen 45′
3 – 0
3 – 1
87′ A. Niane

Gazélec Ajaccio
1 – 0
Niort View events More info
J. Tshibumbu 4′
1 – 0

Ajaccio
3 – 2
Valenciennes View events More info
M. Maâzou 7′
1 – 0
M. Maâzou 42′
2 – 0
M. Gakpa 51′
3 – 0
3 – 1
64′ M. N’Dao
3 – 2
67′ S. Ciss

Le Havre
3 – 0
Bourg-en-Bresse View events More info
N. Julan 4′
1 – 0
J. Fontaine 10′
2 – 0
J. Fontaine 17′
3 – 0

Orléans
1 – 0
Sochaux View events More info
L. Nabab 6′
1 – 0

Troyes
2 – 1
Le Havre View events More info
A. Niane 10′
1 – 0
A. Niane (PG) 23′
2 – 0
2 – 1
66′ I. Chebake

Troyes
1 – 2
Ajaccio View events More info
S. Grandsir 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
34′ M. Madri
1 – 2
86′ J. Cordoval (OG)

Strasbourg
3 – 1
Lens View events More info
J. Grimm 9′
1 – 0
S. Bahoken 31′
2 – 0
E. Seka 70′
3 – 0
3 – 1
78′ Cristian López (PG)

Red Star
1 – 0
Orléans View events More info
I. Mhirsi 1′
1 – 0

Troyes
1 – 0
Clermont View events More info
A. Niane 5′
1 – 0

Valenciennes
3 – 3
Bourg-en-Bresse View events More info
Nuno Da Costa 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
29′ J. Berthomier
1 – 2
61′ G. Heinry
Nuno Da Costa 63′
2 – 2
S. Diarra 72′
3 – 2
3 – 3
90′ R. Del Castillo (PG)

Nîmes
1 – 1
Clermont View events More info
R. Alioui 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
66′ J. Lopy

Reims
1 – 0
Le Havre View events More info
P. Chavarría 4′
1 – 0

Tours
4 – 1
Valenciennes View events More info
F. Diarra 6′
1 – 0
R. Filippi 11′
2 – 0
2 – 1
15′ R. Filippi (OG)
Denis Bouanga 43′
3 – 1
R. Raveloson 72′
4 – 1

Red Star
3 – 3
Nîmes View events More info
S. Keita 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
17′ A. Briançon
1 – 2
21′ C. Kouakou
N. Sarr 35′
2 – 2
2 – 3
50′ C. Kouakou
N. Sarr 54′
3 – 3

Strasbourg
2 – 4
Valenciennes View events More info
K. Boutaïb 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
26′ E. Butin
1 – 2
36′ S. Roudet
1 – 3
48′ Nuno Da Costa
I. Sacko (PG) 60′
2 – 3
2 – 4
83′ S. Ciss

Reims
3 – 0
Auxerre View events More info
Diego 10′
1 – 0
A. Weber 63′
2 – 0
G. Kyei 84′
3 – 0

Ajaccio
2 – 0
Auxerre View events More info
M. Gakpa 1′
1 – 0
M. Maâzou 73′
2 – 0

Orléans
3 – 1
Strasbourg View events More info
K. Ayari 5′
1 – 0
K. Ayari 49′
2 – 0
J. Aholou 67′
3 – 0
3 – 1
90′ V. Gragnic

Valenciennes
1 – 1
Ajaccio View events More info
S. Ciss (PG) 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
53′ M. Madri

Le Havre
2 – 2
Valenciennes View events More info
M. Duhamel 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
11′ Nuno Da Costa
1 – 2
18′ L. Nestor
G. Gimbert 68′
2 – 2

Ajaccio
1 – 2
Red Star View events More info
J. Cavalli 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
71′ A. Ngamukol
1 – 2
76′ H. Bouazza (PG)

Reims
2 – 0
Gazélec Ajaccio View events More info
G. Charbonnier 7′
1 – 0
G. Kyei 85′
2 – 0

Valenciennes
2 – 0
Clermont View events More info
M. N’Dao 4′
1 – 0
Nuno Da Costa 49′
2 – 0