The Impact of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time Game State in Italy Serie B

Posted on: July 8th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Last 71 games in Italy Serie B where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT

42% ended over 2.5 goals

GAME PATHWAY

20/71 1-0 FT

33/71 > 2-0 32-1-0

18/71 > 1-1 6-8-4

< 15/71 went to > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band and only 3/15 ended 1-1 FT

a monster in play edge < the betting industry in this profile will have much more expectation > 1-1 then you will have

5/71 ended 1-1 FT

58-9-4

Betting Strategy

In Italy Serie B in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1.

1-0 half time to the home team in Serie B added to the early goal metric and 1-1 with a goal in 46-70 minutes time band will not be a common event and if this does happen then 1-1 full time will be an unlikely outcome.

If you followed the above strategy in the last 71 games above then you would have lost 3/71 of your trades which is not too shabby

Ascoli
1 – 2
Ternana
G. Gigliotti 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
65′ F. Avenatti
1 – 2
68′ C. Falletti

Brescia
1 – 0
Benevento
F. Lucioni (OG) 8′
1 – 0

Cittadella
1 – 0
Benevento
M. Iori 9′
1 – 0

Trapani
3 – 0
Perugia
L. Pagliarulo 8′
1 – 0
J. Manconi 59′
2 – 0
J. Manconi 61′
3 – 0

Virtus Entella
2 – 1
Ascoli
M. Troiano 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
60′ D. Cacia (PG)
F. Caputo (PG) 71′
2 – 1

Carpi
1 – 0
Spezia
A. Di Gaudio 1′
1 – 0

Bari 1908
2 – 0
Brescia
V. Parigini 8′
1 – 0
C. Galano 58′
2 – 0

Perugia
3 – 3
Cesena
M. Koné (OG) 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ C. Ciano
M. Ricci 51′
2 – 1
2 – 2
59′ M. Koné
2 – 3
69′ A. Cocco
F. Forte 75′
3 – 3

Cittadella
2 – 0
Bari 1908
Lucas Chiaretti 9′
1 – 0
A. Schenetti 78′
2 – 0

Latina
2 – 0
Hellas Verona
R. Brosco 10′
1 – 0
R. Boakye 90′
2 – 0

Avellino
1 – 1
Benevento
D. Verde 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
82′ K. Cissé

Cittadella
2 – 1
Latina
M. Iori 4′
1 – 0
C. Kouamé 74′
2 – 0
2 – 1
90′ D. Corvia

Virtus Entella
4 – 0
Brescia
N. Ammari 10′
1 – 0
F. Caputo 46′
2 – 0
F. Caputo 65′
3 – 0
L. Tremolada 88′
4 – 0

Bari 1908
3 – 0
Trapani
G. Monachello 9′
1 – 0
D. Ivan 64′
2 – 0
G. Monachello 70′
3 – 0

Latina
1 – 1
Pisa
D. Paponi 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
62′ D. Mannini

SPAL
3 – 1
Carpi
G. Zigoni 8′
1 – 0
A. Cerri 50′
2 – 0
M. Arini 68′
3 – 0
3 – 1
77′ A. Bifulco

Carpi
2 – 0
Latina
A. Di Gaudio 5′
1 – 0
A. Di Gaudio 52′
2 – 0

Novara
1 – 0
Salernitana
G. Sansone 7′
1 – 0

Ternana
1 – 0
Pisa
F. Avenatti (PG) 6′
1 – 0

Brescia
2 – 0
Frosinone
L. Morosini 9′
1 – 0
A. Caracciolo 63′
2 – 0

Novara
4 – 0
Modena
F. Evacuo (PG) 4′
1 – 0
A. Galabinov 64′
2 – 0
A. Galabinov 87′
3 – 0
P. González 89′
4 – 0

Cesena
1 – 0
Novara
A. Ragusa 5′
1 – 0

Spezia
1 – 0
Novara
E. Calaiò 8′
1 – 0

Virtus Entella
2 – 2
Ternana
A. Cutolo 8′
1 – 0
F. Caputo 53′
2 – 0
2 – 1
58′ F. Ceravolo
2 – 2
59′ F. Ceravolo (PG)

Cesena
3 – 0
Latina
C. Ciano 5′
1 – 0
C. Ciano (PG) 70′
2 – 0
A. Ragusa 73′
3 – 0

Spezia
1 – 2
Trapani
Nenê 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
52′ G. Scognamiglio
1 – 2
72′ L. Nizzetto

Novara
1 – 2
Bari 1908
P. González 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
57′ R. Maniero
1 – 2
78′ G. Sansone

Virtus Entella
2 – 2
Spezia
F. Caputo 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ Nenê
F. Caputo 56′
2 – 1
2 – 2
73′ Nenê

Perugia
2 – 0
Latina
M. Ardemagni 2′
1 – 0
M. Ardemagni 62′
2 – 0

Virtus Entella
2 – 1
Perugia
G. Masucci 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
87′ S. Prcić
F. Caputo (PG) 90′
2 – 1

Spezia
2 – 0
Virtus Lanciano
Nenê 7′
1 – 0
G. Acampora 86′
2 – 0

and

T HT T+1 FT
Avellino Entella 4 1 0 H86 2 0
Cesena Ternana 8 1 0 H76 4 0
Perugia Modena 8 1 0 1 0
Trapani Modena 7 1 0 A64 2 1
Novara Brescia 4 1 0 H52 4 0
Bari Sal. 7 1 0 A70 2 1
Entella Sal. 9 1 0 1 0
Brescia Vercelli 2 1 0 H60 2 0
Latina Ascoli 4 1 0 1 0
Ascoli Entella 4 1 0 1 0
Trapani Pro Vercelli 4 1 0 H49 2 1
Entella Latina 6 1 0 H74 2 0
Perugia Trapani 4 1 0 1 0
Trapani Virtus 3 1 0 1 0
Frosinone Carpi 10 1 0 1 0
Trapani Frosinone 7 1 0 A56 3 1
Crotone Spezia 8 1 0 H56 2 0
Avellino Frosinone 5 1 0 H51 3 0
Brescia Frosinone 7 1 0 H53 3 1
Ternana Crotone 5 1 0 H52 2 1
Cittadella Catania 3 1 0 H54 3 2
Prescara Varese 4 1 0 H51 2 0
Varesse Crotone 4 1 0 1 0
Catania Latina 10 1 0 1 0
Cittadella Latina 6 1 0 A67 1 1
Carpi Pro 8 1 0 1 0
Bologna Cittadella 2 1 0 1 0
Trapani Vicenza 4 1 0 A60 2 1
Spezia Bari 9 1 0 H90 2 0
Bari Juve 9 1 0 H70 3 0
Avellino Crotone 9 1 0 H90 2 0
Carpi Modena 7 1 0 A55 2 2
Crotone Cittadella 2 1 0 H80 2 0
Trapani Modena 10 1 0 H69 2 0
Reggina Avellino 2 1 0 A57 1 1
Trapani Crotone 7 1 0 1 0
Carpi Varese 4 1 0 1 0
Juve Bari 2 1 0 A72 1 1
Reggina Spezia 1 1 0 A49 1 2
Empoli Lanciano 10 1 0 H63 3 0