The Impact of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time Game State in Bundesliga 2 Via Survival Analysis

Posted on: August 19th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Darmstadt 1-0 HT

1/2 11/4 13/2

over 2.5 = 10/11

> 2-0 = 11/8

1-0 FT = 10/3

> 1-1 = 6/5 > what factors did the betting industry use to come to the conclusion that St Pauli were more likely to score goal 2 then Darmstadt given the first half events ?

last 50 in Bundeliga 2 where the home team opened the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT and 14/50 > 1-1 = 28%

1/0.28 = 5/2

Trading Stratgey

In Bundesliga 2 in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1.

Darmstadt 98
3 – 0
St. Pauli View events More info
K. Großkreutz 9′
1 – 0
T. Kempe (PG) 49′
2 – 0
Y. Stark 82′
3 – 0

MSV Duisburg
1 – 1
Bochum View events More info
B. Tashchi 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ J. Bandowski

Eintracht Brau…
3 – 1
Union Berlin
K. Reichel 6′
1 – 0
K. Reichel 64′
2 – 0
2 – 1
65′ M. Thiel
D. Kumbela 75′
3 – 1

Hannover 96
1 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
N. Füllkrug 8′
1 – 0

Würzburger Kickers
1 – 1
Nürnberg
V. Rama 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
80′ C. Teuchert

Greuther Fürth
1 – 0
Stuttgart
Veton Berisha 9′
1 – 0

Karlsruher SC
2 – 0
Hannover 96
S. Mugoša 10′
1 – 0
D. Diamantakos (PG) 70′
2 – 0

Eintracht Brau…
1 – 1
Erzgebirge Aue
P. Ofosu-Ayeh 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
57′ D. Nazarov (PG)

Dynamo Dresden
2 – 2
Würzburger Kickers
M. Hartmann 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
50′ F. Müller
A. Gogia 58′
2 – 1
2 – 2
72′ T. Schröck

Hannover 96
1 – 0
Karlsruher SC
F. Klaus 7′
1 – 0

Sandhausen
2 – 0
Kaiserslautern
L. Höler 6′
1 – 0
K. Vollmann 83′
2 – 0

Dynamo Dresden
1 – 0
St. Pauli
A. Lambertz 7′
1 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1 – 1
St. Pauli View events More info
K. Demirbay 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
71′ F. Picault

Kaiserslautern
2 – 0
Sandhausen View events More info
R. Jenssen 6′
1 – 0
J. Böðvarsson (PG) 90′
2 – 0

Freiburg
2 – 1
RB Leipzig View events More info
V. Grifo 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
56′ D. Kaiser
F. Niederlechner 68′
2 – 1

FSV Frankfurt
3 – 3
MSV Duisburg View events More info
E. Hajsafi 5′
1 – 0
Z. Kalmár 48′
2 – 0
2 – 1
59′ S. Iljutcenko
Yann 65′
3 – 1
3 – 2
76′ K. Onuegbu
3 – 3
90′ T. Meißner

Greuther Fürth
2 – 0
Union Berlin View events More info
S. Freis 4′
1 – 0
J. Wurtz 80′
2 – 0

Freiburg
2 – 0
Kaiserslautern View events More info
N. Höfler 8′
1 – 0
F. Niederlechner 48′
2 – 0

Eintracht Brau…
1 – 0
Arminia Bielefeld View events More info
K. Reichel 5′
1 – 0

Union Berlin
3 – 0
1860 München View events More info
F. Kroos 6′
1 – 0
B. Wood 80′
2 – 0
D. Kreilach 87′
3 – 0

St. Pauli
1 – 0
RB Leipzig View events More info
M. Rzatkowski 8′
1 – 0

Heidenheim
1 – 1
Karlsruher SC View events More info
A. Feick 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
90′ E. Valentini

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1 – 2
Paderborn View events More info
M. Bolly 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ N. Proschwitz
1 – 2
72′ M. N’Djeng

Union Berlin
1 – 1
Fortuna Düsseldorf View events More info
B. Kessel 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
88′ D. Ya Konan

Karlsruher SC
2 – 0
1860 München View events More info
K. Bülow (OG) 9′
1 – 0
Manuel Torres 69′
2 – 0

Eintracht Brau…
2 – 0
1860 München View events More info
H. Zuck 5′
1 – 0
J. Hochscheidt 47′
2 – 0

Sandhausen
1 – 1
Union Berlin View events More info
C. Trimmel (OG) 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ T. Achenbach (OG)

1860 München
2 – 1
St. Pauli View events More info
S. Gonther (OG) 10′
1 – 0
M. Wolf 72′
2 – 0
2 – 1
77′ C. Nöthe

Union Berlin
2 – 0
Karlsruher SC View events More info
C. Quiring 2′
1 – 0
S. Polter 72′
2 – 0

Bochum
4 – 0
Aalen View events More info
A. Hainault (OG) 2′
1 – 0
S. Terodde 57′
2 – 0
M. Terrazzino 66′
3 – 0
M. Forssell 89′
4 – 0

Heidenheim
3 – 0
Sandhausen View events More info
M. Schnatterer 6′
1 – 0
R. Leipertz 48′
2 – 0
F. Niederlechner 62′
3 – 0

Darmstadt 98
1 – 0
RB Leipzig View events More info
D. Stroh-Engel 5′
1 – 0

1860 München
2 – 0
Greuther Fürth View events More info
R. Okotie 6′
1 – 0
Ilie 74′
2 – 0

RB Leipzig
1 – 0
Erzgebirge Aue View events More info
D. Frahn 3′
1 – 0

Kaiserslautern
4 – 0
Dynamo Dresden View events More info
T. Leistner (OG) 6′
1 – 0
M. Idrissou (PG) 63′
2 – 0
M. Idrissou 83′
3 – 0
K. Stöger 90′
4 – 0

Aalen
3 – 0
Union Berlin View events More info
J. Pohjanpalo 8′
1 – 0
J. Pohjanpalo 68′
2 – 0
D. Buballa 79′
3 – 0

FSV Frankfurt
1 – 0
St. Pauli View events More info
M. Leckie 9′
1 – 0

Energie Cottbus
1 – 0
Kaiserslautern View events More info
S. Michel 3′
1 – 0

Erzgebirge Aue
1 – 0
Kaiserslautern View events More info
J. Sylvestr 5′
1 – 0

Greuther Fürth
1 – 0
Energie Cottbus View events More info
F. Trinks 5′
1 – 0

Greuther Fürth
4 – 0
Dynamo Dresden View events More info
Z. Stieber 10′
1 – 0
F. Trinks 63′
2 – 0
N. Gießelmann 75′
3 – 0
T. Sparv 86′
4 – 0

St. Pauli
2 – 1
FSV Frankfurt View events More info
J. Verhoek 3′
1 – 0
M. Rzatkowski 58′
2 – 0
2 – 1
63′ M. Halstenberg (OG)

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1 – 0
Bochum View events More info
S. Reisinger 7′
1 – 0

FSV Frankfurt
1 – 0
Bochum View events More info
D. Epstein 10′
1 – 0

Bochum
1 – 1
Dynamo Dresden View events More info
P. Fabian 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
69′ Cristian Fiél

Paderborn
2 – 0
1860 München View events More info
M. Sağlık 4′
1 – 0
E. Kachunga 70′
2 – 0

Köln
1 – 1
1860 München View events More info
A. Ujah 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
78′ D. Halfar

Hertha BSC
2 – 0
Bochum View events More info
Ronny 4′
1 – 0
N. Schulz 46′
2 – 0

Sandhausen
1 – 3
Paderborn View events More info
F. Löning 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
56′ D. Brückner
1 – 2
65′ M. Vrančić
1 – 3
90′ P. Hofmann

Erzgebirge Aue
1 – 1
Aalen View events More info
M. Hensel 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
62′ M. Klauß