The Impact of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time Game State in Argentina B Nacional Via Survival Analysis

Posted on: August 2nd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”

Survival analysis is generally defined as a set of methods for analyzing data where the outcome variable is the time until the occurrence of an event of interest. The event can be death, occurrence of a disease, marriage, divorce, etc.

If we look at Survival analysis in terms of Soccer the question we need to ask is how likely are a team to a hold a lead ?

“Survival Analysis of the Timing of Goals in Soccer Games”

Submitted by

LAM CHUNG SANG
for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong
in September 2005

https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/40969/6/FullText.pdf

Conclusion

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”

Conclusion

” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”

If the above conclusion is correct then in effect there is no in play betting edge because in play market prices would be spot on in terms of expectation of the other team fighting back .

Hang on < I can see a massive flaw > they failed to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in an individual league >

Argentina B Nacional in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 half time game state

last 20

GAME PATHWAY

8/20 1-0 FT

10/20 > 2-0 8-1-1

2/20 > 1-1 0-2-0

16-3-1

Almagro
1 – 0
All Boys at HT All Boys were offered at 6/5 to score goal 2
L. Piovi 8′
1 – 0

Central Córdob…
2 – 1
Guillermo Brown at HT Guillermo Brown were offered at 6/4 to score goal 2
H. Lamberti 8′
1 – 0
L. Becerra (PG) 78′
2 – 0
2 – 1
87′ S. Giordana

Deportivo Sant…
1 – 0
Estudiantes d… View events More info
M. Michel 8′
1 – 0

Douglas Haig
1 – 0
Boca Unidos View events More info
J. Córdoba 1′
1 – 0

All Boys
1 – 0
Brown de Adrogué View events More info
G. García 2′
1 – 0

Deportivo Sant…
1 – 0
Instituto View events More info
L. Acevedo 6′
1 – 0

Argentinos Juniors
3 – 0
Boca Unidos View events More info
D. Batallini 5′
1 – 0
N. González 48′
2 – 0
J. Cabrera 54′
3 – 0

Gimnasia Jujuy
1 – 0
Deportivo Sant… View events More info
L. Vila 5′
1 – 0

Chacarita Juniors
3 – 0
Almagro View events More info
A. Módula 7′
1 – 0
M. Rodríguez 54′
2 – 0
R. Salinas 64′
3 – 0

Atlético Paraná
1 – 0
Douglas Haig View events More info
P. Vercellino 5′
1 – 0

Flandria
3 – 0
Independiente … View events More info
F. Costa 4′
1 – 0
P. Bueno 81′
2 – 0
R. Fergonzi 86′
3 – 0

Villa Dálmine
2 – 3
Nueva Chicago View events More info
J. Mazzochi 7′
1 – 0
N. Ayr (OG) 71′
2 – 0
2 – 1
78′ C. Gómez
2 – 2
82′ F. Pumpido
2 – 3
87′ C. Gómez

Crucero del Norte
1 – 1
Argentinos Juniors View events More info
F. García 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
77′ B. Romero

All Boys
2 – 2
Independiente … View events More info
E. Porro 10′
1 – 0
M. Salas 62′
2 – 0
2 – 1
85′ S. Rodríguez
2 – 2
86′ D. Cardozo

Juventud Unida G.
2 – 1
Villa Dálmine View events More info
A. Ramírez 7′
1 – 0
M. Prost 51′
2 – 0
2 – 1
90′ P. Ruiz

Argentinos Juniors
2 – 0
Flandria View events More info
B. Romero 3′
1 – 0
F. Fydriszewski 85′
2 – 0

Crucero del Norte
4 – 0
Guillermo Brown View events More info
N. Castro 7′
1 – 0
P. Stupiski 51′
2 – 0
G. Sotelo 73′
3 – 0
J. Vera 90′
4 – 0

Instituto
1 – 0
Almagro View events More info
P. Rosales (PG) 4′
1 – 0

Deportivo Sant…
4 – 1
Juventud Unida G. View events More info
M. Zárate 8′
1 – 0
M. Michel (PG) 49′
2 – 0
D. Sosa 69′
3 – 0
3 – 1
80′ A. Ramírez
M. Buzzini 86′
4 – 1

Boca Unidos
1 – 1
Gimnasia Jujuy View events More info
F. Nieto 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ L. Vila