The Impact of the Early Home Goal 2015-2016 V 2016-2017 in Italy Serie B

Posted on: July 7th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In Serie B 2015-2016 season in games where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 71% ended over 2.5 goals and 45% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 57% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 55%

The home teams won 76%, 10% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 14%

31% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

Game Pathway

7/49 FT 1-0

24/49 > 2-0 21-2-1 home teams won 87.5%

18/49 > 1-1 9-3-6 home teams won 50%

Serie B 2016-2017 in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band ;

32-9-2 < in this profile in Italy Serie B if you back the perceived stronger away team when conceding the opening goal in the 0-10 minute time band then you will be spanked > you may be dragged in again if goes > 1-1 and you will get a further spanking < an away win in this profile in Serie B will be rare

Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 53%

28% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

5/43 1-0 FT

22/43 > 2-0 20-2-0 > home teams won 91%

16/43 > 1-1 7-7-2 > home teams won 44%

last 92 games in Italy Serie B where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band ;

GAME PATHWAY

12/92 1-0 FT

46/92 > 2-0 41-4-1 > home teams won 89%

34/92 > 1-1 16-10-8 > home teams won 47%

69-14-9 > home teams won 75%

a monster area to exploit in play is NEXT goal betting < the betting industry in play algorithm in early goal games in general is not accurate when it comes to pricing next goal at 0-1/1-0 which you can exploit by picking off games that are out of line with expectation in terms of the expected game pathway >

Carpi
2 – 0
Novara
F. Concas 8′
1 – 0
J. Mbakogu 36′
2 – 0

Brescia
2 – 1
Trapani
E. Torregrossa 3′
1 – 0
A. Caracciolo 18′
2 – 0
2 – 1
80′ D. Curiale

Ascoli
1 – 2
Ternana
G. Gigliotti 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
65′ F. Avenatti
1 – 2
68′ C. Falletti

Brescia
2 – 1
Ternana
G. Crociata 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
8′ M. Defendi
D. Bisoli 62′
2 – 1

Brescia
1 – 0
Benevento
F. Lucioni (OG) 8′
1 – 0

Cittadella
1 – 0
Benevento
M. Iori 9′
1 – 0

Trapani
3 – 0
Perugia
L. Pagliarulo 8′
1 – 0
J. Manconi 59′
2 – 0
J. Manconi 61′
3 – 0

Virtus Entella
2 – 1
Ascoli
M. Troiano 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
60′ D. Cacia (PG)
F. Caputo (PG) 71′
2 – 1

Perugia
2 – 2
Pisa
M. Mustacchio 5′
1 – 0
E. Gnahoré 10′
2 – 0
2 – 1
15′ F. Di Tacchio
2 – 2
86′ A. Lisuzzo

Perugia
3 – 1
Benevento
F. Nicastro 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
24′ F. Ceravolo
S. Di Carmine 36′
2 – 1
G. Acampora 66′
3 – 1

Ternana
2 – 1
Trapani
G. Di Noia 6′
1 – 0
G. Di Noia 34′
2 – 0
2 – 1
90′ Coronado

Carpi
1 – 0
Spezia
A. Di Gaudio 1′
1 – 0

Cesena
1 – 1
Vicenza
C. Ciano 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ F. Orlando

Bari 1908
2 – 0
Brescia
V. Parigini 8′
1 – 0
C. Galano 58′
2 – 0

Ascoli
2 – 4
Pisa
A. Favilli 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
26′ G. Masucci
1 – 2
37′ D. Mannini
1 – 3
42′ G. Masucci
D. Cacia 48′
2 – 3
2 – 4
64′ F. Angiulli

Brescia
4 – 1
Cittadella
A. Caracciolo 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
23′ L. Strizzolo
L. Blanchard 29′
2 – 1
R. Coly 37′
3 – 1
J. Dall’Oglio 43′
4 – 1

Bari 1908
3 – 1
Ternana
F. Brienza 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ G. Di Noia
C. Galano 48′
2 – 1
A. Floro Flores 73′
3 – 1

Spezia
2 – 2
Trapani
P. Granoche 1′
1 – 0
P. Granoche 10′
2 – 0
2 – 1
35′ T. Casasola
2 – 2
90′ F. De Col (OG)

Ascoli
3 – 1
Pro Vercelli
R. Orsolini 4′
1 – 0
A. Favilli 38′
2 – 0
R. Orsolini 50′
3 – 0
3 – 1
83′ D. Konate

Perugia
3 – 3
Cesena
M. Koné (OG) 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ C. Ciano
M. Ricci 51′
2 – 1
2 – 2
59′ M. Koné
2 – 3
69′ A. Cocco
F. Forte 75′
3 – 3

Cittadella
2 – 0
Bari 1908
Lucas Chiaretti 9′
1 – 0
A. Schenetti 78′
2 – 0

Latina
2 – 0
Hellas Verona
R. Brosco 10′
1 – 0
R. Boakye 90′
2 – 0

Perugia
1 – 1
Latina
S. Guberti 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
9′ P. Dellafiore

SPAL
4 – 0
Ternana
G. Zigoni 4′
1 – 0
G. Zigoni 15′
2 – 0
M. Valijent (OG) 59′
3 – 0
G. Zigoni 89′
4 – 0

Avellino
1 – 1
Benevento
D. Verde 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
82′ K. Cissé

Carpi
2 – 0
Cittadella
A. Catellani 8′
1 – 0
K. Lasagna 28′
2 – 0

Ternana
3 – 0
Virtus Entella
S. Palombi 1′
1 – 0
F. Avenatti 26′
2 – 0
F. Avenatti 70′
3 – 0

Cittadella
2 – 1
Latina
M. Iori 4′
1 – 0
C. Kouamé 74′
2 – 0
2 – 1
90′ D. Corvia

Virtus Entella
4 – 0
Brescia
N. Ammari 10′
1 – 0
F. Caputo 46′
2 – 0
F. Caputo 65′
3 – 0
L. Tremolada 88′
4 – 0

Frosinone
2 – 1
SPAL
L. Paganini 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
15′ N. Giani
D. Ciofani 35′
2 – 1

Bari 1908
3 – 0
Trapani
G. Monachello 9′
1 – 0
D. Ivan 64′
2 – 0
G. Monachello 70′
3 – 0

Latina
1 – 1
Pisa
D. Paponi 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
62′ D. Mannini

SPAL
3 – 1
Carpi
G. Zigoni 8′
1 – 0
A. Cerri 50′
2 – 0
M. Arini 68′
3 – 0
3 – 1
77′ A. Bifulco

Carpi
2 – 0
Latina
A. Di Gaudio 5′
1 – 0
A. Di Gaudio 52′
2 – 0

Bari 1908
1 – 1
Virtus Entella
F. Brienza 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
9′ S. Iacoponi

Virtus Entella
4 – 1
Vicenza
L. Ceccarelli 9′
1 – 0
A. Cutolo 29′
2 – 0
2 – 1
47′ N. Siega
F. Caputo 70′
3 – 1
L. Tremolada 78′
4 – 1

Salernitana
2 – 0
Trapani
L. Vitale 7′
1 – 0
A. Donnarumma 11′
2 – 0

Virtus Entella
2 – 1
Perugia
L. Ceccarelli 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
34′ F. Nicastro
F. Caputo 72′
2 – 1

Novara
1 – 0
Salernitana
G. Sansone 7′
1 – 0

Ternana
1 – 0
Pisa
F. Avenatti (PG) 6′
1 – 0

SPAL
3 – 0
Vicenza
M. Arini 10′
1 – 0
M. Cremonesi 22′
2 – 0
G. Zigoni 90′
3 – 0

Brescia
2 – 0
Frosinone
L. Morosini 9′
1 – 0
A. Caracciolo 63′
2 – 0

Novara
2 – 2
Trapani
A. Galabinov 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
24′ Caio De Cenco
P. Faragò 53′
2 – 1
2 – 2
90′ A. Ferretti