The Effect of the Time of The Opening Goal in the Premier League 2016-2017

Posted on: September 29th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added all the games this season in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring ( H ) or the away team opened the scoring ( A) in the first half with the final score shown as well in each one minute time band .
The last figure in the column  shows the average goals per game in that one minute time band.
In the table below there are 42  opening goals logged ( 24 games where the home team opened the scoring , and 18 games where the away team opened the scoring , and the home teams <> 19-2-3 ( home teams won 79% ) and the away teams <> 12-4-2 ( away teams  won 67% )

33/42 ended over 2.5 goals 78.5% 

Full Time Summary 

How does the time of the opening goal in the Premier League effect expectation of further goal(s) production and expectation of the team that score holding onto their lead as time decays in the game ? ( survival analysis )  

 

1
2 H 2 0 2
3
4 H 2 1 3
5 H  2 4 H 1 1 4
6
7 H  3 1 A 1 2 3.5
8 H 4 2 6
9 H 4-1 H 3 0 A 1 3 H 1 2 A 1 1 A 1 3 3.5
10
11 A 1 1 H 1 1 H 3 0 2.33
12
13 H  4 1 A  1 2 4
14
15 H  4 0 A 1 2 3.5
16 A  1 2 3
17 A  1 4 A  1 2 H 5 1 4.67
18 A  2 2 A  2 1 3.5
19
20
21 A 3 1 4
22 H 4 1 5
23 H 1 0 1
24
25
26
27 A  1 4 5
28
29
30
31 H  3 4 7
32 H  2 1 3
33
34 H  3 1 4
35
36 H  2 0 2
37
38 H 2 0 2
39 H 2 3 5
40 A 1 3 A 0 3 3.5
41 A  0 4 4
42
43 A  1 1 2
44
45 H 3 0 H 2 1 3