The Effect of the Second Half ” Fightback ” by the Away team in Ligue 1

Posted on: December 22nd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added all the games since 2012-2013 where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time and there was a fightback (1-1 ) by the away team with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 64% ended over 2.5 goals.

26-38-23 > away teams won 26%

In games in the table below where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 1-1 1-1 2-2 2-1 1-2 2-2 3-1 1-1 3-2 2-2 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 < 67% ended a draw In games in the table below where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 2-2 1-1 1-2 2-1 2-1 2-3 2-1 1-3 3-1 2-1 1-4 1-1 1-1 3-2 1-1 3-2 1-1 1-1 2-1 2-1 1-2 2-1 1-1 1-1 3-1 2-1 2-3 < 33% ended a draw and 70% ended over 2.5

In games in the table below where the fightback goal ( 1-1 ) was in the 46-50 time band 2-2 1-3 1-1 1-1 2-3 2-1 1-4 4-1 2-2 3-1 1-3 3-2 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-2 2-1 1-2 2-1 1-1 75% ended over 2.5 , 1/0.75 = 1/3 < at 1-1 in the game between Metz and Guingamp over 2.5 was offered at 4/9

Summary

In games in ligue 1 where the home team is winning 1-0 at half time added to the away fightback metric, will result in lowered expectation of an away win and in the profile where the home team open the scoring in the 11-20 minutes time band added to the away fightback metric in ligue 1, will result in lowered expectation of a draw.

2016/2017 T T+1 T+2 T+3 FT
Metz Guingamp 12 49 74 90 2 2
Nice Bastia 16 60 1 1
Angers St. Etienne 18 59 77 1 2
Bastia Mont 6 55 1 1
Bordeaux Lorient 28 62 73 2 1
Nantes Rennes 42 58 75 1 2
Lyon Guingamp 37 46 52 77 1 3
Rennes Bordeaux 44 66 1 1
Nice Lorient 11 61 86 2 1
Bastia Toulouse 20 67 82 2 1
Mont Rennes 22 64 1 1
2015/2016
Angers Toulouse 12 59 63 78 2 3
Troyes Mars 10 61 1 1
Reims Nantes 11 68 80 2 1
Lorient Mars 34 46 1 1
Reims Toulouse 12 51 66 90 1 3
Lyon Troyes 18 67 72 81 3 1
Reims Troyes 36 47 1 1
Toulouse Lorient 41 47 48 59 2 3
Mont Nantes 12 63 90 2 1
Guingamp Lorient 1 64 83 90 2 2
Lorient Rennes 25 68 1 1
Mont Lorient 6 48 57 2 1
Nantes PSG 11 48 73 80 1 4
Angers Nice 24 56 1 1
Reims Lorient 23 48 54 66 4 1
Toulouse Monaco 22 65 1 1
Nice Monaco 7 51 62 1 2
2014/2015
Nantes Reims 13 58 1 1
Lorient PSG 42 60 68 1 2
Lille St. Etienne 16 60 1 1
Monaco Caen 5 50 59 75 2 2
Toulouse Lorient 23 55 57 60 2 3
Bastia Evian 35 65 83 1 2
Evian Lyon 28 63 64 81 2 3
Marseille Metz 43 46 59 90 3 1
Reims Evian 14 57 69 78 3 2
Rennes Reims 45 65 76 90 1 3
Marseille Lille 32 61 69 2 1
Bordeaux Nice 33 66 90 1 2
Rennes Marseille 18 60 1 1
Reims Lorient 42 49 63 85 1 3
Lyon PSG 31 69 1 1
Bordeaux PSG 18 50 70 85 3 2
PSG Lorient 4 67 82 90 3 1
Guingamp Evian 44 50 1 1
Evian Bastia 42 57 87 1 2
2013/2014
Lorient Evian 5 70 1 1
Lorient Bastia 35 50 1 1
Monaco Reims 8 53 63 71 3 2
Lorient Toulouse 41 60 73 80 1 3
Rennes Montpeillier 10 54 65 90 2 2
Bastia Lyon 34 54 56 85 1 3
Valenc. Guingamp 18 70 1 1
Lyon Valenc. 17 66 1 1
Marseille Sochaux 4 60 83 2 1
Monaco St. Etienne 15 49 87 2 1
Evian Bordeaux 25 69 1 1
Ajaccio Lyon 18 56 70 2 1
St. Etienne Toulouse 18 63 75 1 2
Marseille Monaco 44 47 80 1 2
Bastia Toulouse 43 57 67 2 1
Evian Sochaux 4 54 1 1
Montpellier PSG 10 60 1 1
2012/2013
Lille St. Etienne 42 59 1 1
Marseille Bastia 12 46 81 2 1
Sochaux Bordeaux 34 51 64 78 2 2
Montpellier Troyes 8 51 1 1
Bastia Lyon 45 54 56 61 4 1
Evian Sochaux 44 53 64 71 5 1
Valenc. Lille 24 55 82 89 1 3
Brest Lyon 8 53 1 1
Brest Ajaccio 12 70 1 1
Nancy Reims 29 48 58 1 2
Lorient Rennes 31 56 80 90 2 2
Nancy Lorient 36 50 71 2 1
Ajaccio Valenc. 30 69 1 1
Evian Nancy 44 50 1 1
Marseille Nice 40 51 68 88 2 2
Reims Troyes 29 63 1 1
Nancy Sochaux 14 56 1 1
Brest Bordeaux 37 68 1 1
Reims Nice 16 63 87 90 3 1
Reims Montpeillier 38 55 71 86 3 1
Marseille Rennes 35 57 84 90 3 1
Brest Troyes 11 66 90 2 1
Sochaux Bastia 13 59 76 83 2 3