The Effect of the Opening Goal in the Premier League on 45 Minutes and 1-0 HT Game State

Posted on: August 13th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

Since 2014-2015 in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring on 45 minutes and 1-0 HT

19-2-2 > home teams won 83%

1/0.83 = 1/5

43% ended over 2.5 goals > 1/0.43 = 13/10

“It is often thought that a goal just before half-time serves as a morale-booster and will increase a team’s chances of winning. However, a new IZA Discussion Paper by Ghent University researchers Stijn Baert and Simon Amez suggests that the effect may actually work in the opposite direction: If a home team scores just before half-time, it often scores less after half-time and ends up, on average, with a lower goal difference.

Analyzing 1,179 games played in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europe League between September 2008 and May 2014, the authors show that this football myth does not stand up to the data. For a given score at half-time, a goal just before half-time does not have any statistically significant effect on the chances of winning.

“Furthermore, when a home team scores a last goal between the beginning of minute 45 and the end of the first half, instead of any different moment, they see the final goal difference at the end of the game drop, on average, by half a goal”, says Stijn Baert. For an away team the effect of a goal just before half-time on the final goal difference is statistically insignificant. ” < the authors at Ghent University failed to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the effect of the half time game state < Everton 1 - 0 Stoke City View events More info W. Rooney 45' 1 - 0 Manchester United 1 - 1 Swansea City View events More info W. Rooney (PG) 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 79' G. Sigurðsson Chelsea 2 - 0 Hull City View events More info Diego Costa 45' 1 - 0 G. Cahill 81' 2 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur 2 - 0 Chelsea View events More info D. Alli 45' 1 - 0 D. Alli 54' 2 - 0 Stoke City 2 - 0 Watford View events More info R. Shawcross 45' 1 - 0 P. Crouch 49' 2 - 0 West Ham United 1 - 0 Burnley View events More info M. Noble 45' 1 - 0 Manchester City 1 - 3 Chelsea View events More info G. Cahill (OG) 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 60' Diego Costa 1 - 2 70' Willian 1 - 3 90' E. Hazard Leicester City 3 - 0 Burnley View events More info I. Slimani 45' 1 - 0 I. Slimani 48' 2 - 0 B. Mee (OG) 78' 3 - 0 Hull City 2 - 1 Leicester City View events More info A. Diomande 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 47' R. Mahrez (PG) R. Snodgrass 57' 2 - 1 Arsenal 1 - 1 Crystal Palace View events More info A. Sánchez 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 81' Y. Bolasie Norwich City 3 - 2 Newcastle United View events More info T. Klose 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 71' A. Mitrović D. Mbokani 74' 2 - 1 2 - 2 86' A. Mitrović (PG) Martin Olsson 90' 3 - 2 Aston Villa 2 - 0 Norwich City View events More info T. Klose (OG) 45' 1 - 0 G. Agbonlahor 51' 2 - 0 Sunderland 3 - 0 Newcastle United View events More info A. Johnson (PG) 45' 1 - 0 B. Jones 65' 2 - 0 S. Fletcher 86' 3 - 0 Manchester United 3 - 0 Sunderland View events More info M. Depay 45' 1 - 0 W. Rooney 46' 2 - 0 Mata 90' 3 - 0 Southampton 3 - 0 Norwich City View events More info G. Pellè 45' 1 - 0 D. Tadić 64' 2 - 0 D. Tadić 67' 3 - 0 Chelsea 1 - 0 Crystal Palace View events More info E. Hazard 45' 1 - 0 Leicester City 1 - 3 Chelsea View events More info M. Albrighton 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 48' D. Drogba 1 - 2 79' J. Terry 1 - 3 83' Ramires Sunderland 1 - 0 Newcastle United View events More info J. Defoe 45' 1 - 0 Arsenal 3 - 0 West Ham United View events More info O. Giroud 45' 1 - 0 A. Ramsey 81' 2 - 0 M. Flamini 84' 3 - 0 Manchester City 2 - 0 Leicester City View events More info David Silva 45' 1 - 0 J. Milner 88' 2 - 0 Leicester City 1 - 0 Aston Villa View events More info P. Konchesky 45' 1 - 0 Liverpool 2 - 1 West Bromwich … View events More info A. Lallana 45' 1 - 0 1 - 1 56' S. Berahino (PG) J. Henderson 61' 2 - 1 Queens Park Ra… 1 - 0 Sunderland View events More info C. Austin 45' 1 - 0