The Effect of the opening goal by the Home Team in the Premier League in the 11-20 minutes time band in games where the home team are odds on at Kick Off

Posted on: November 19th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Below are the last 20 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring in the 11-20 minutes time band and the closing price of the home team before the game started was odds on ;

 

14-3-3 <> the home teams won 70% > 1/0.70 = 4/9 < key point > the home teams  average price  in this sample will be much shorter then 4/9 and you should be looking to back against ( lay ) the perceived stronger home teams at 1-0 which is a low risk ( because of the short prices ) , high reward strategy.

You should note in the Premier League that when the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes ( this will surprise a few ) that higher expectation of a home win then in the 11-20 profile below .
1.

Chelsea
5 – 0
Everton
E. Hazard 19′
1 – 0
Marcos Alonso 20′
2 – 0
Diego Costa 42′
3 – 0
E. Hazard 56′
4 – 0
Pedro 65′
5 – 0

49/100 7/2 31/5 < closing prices

2.

Liverpool
2 – 1
West Bromwich …
S. Mané 20′
1 – 0
Philippe Coutinho 35′
2 – 0
2 – 1
81′ G. McAuley

29/100 121/25 519/50

3.

Liverpool
5 – 1
Hull City
A. Lallana 17′
1 – 0
J. Milner (PG) 30′
2 – 0
S. Mané 36′
3 – 0
3 – 1
51′ D. Meyler
Philippe Coutinho 52′
4 – 1
J. Milner (PG) 71′
5 – 1

6/25 113/20 297/25

4.

Manchester City
4 – 0
AFC Bournemouth
K. De Bruyne 15′
1 – 0
K. Iheanacho 25′
2 – 0
R. Sterling 48′
3 – 0
İ. Gündoğan 66′
4 – 0
Nolito 86′

1/4 563/100 23/2

5.

Liverpool
4 – 1
Leicester City
Roberto Firmino 13′
1 – 0
S. Mané 31′
2 – 0
2 – 1
38′ J. Vardy
A. Lallana 56′
3 – 1
Roberto Firmino 89′
4 – 1

17/25 151/50 437/100

6.

Everton
3 – 0
Norwich City
J. McCarthy 19′
1 – 0
L. Baines (PG) 44′
2 – 0
K. Mirallas 48′
3 – 0

18/25 149/50 363/100

7.

West Ham United
3 – 1
Watford
A. Carroll 11′
1 – 0
M. Noble (PG) 45′
2 – 0
M. Noble (PG) 53′
3 – 0
3 – 1
64′ S. Prödl

23/50 183/50 659/100

8.

Leicester City
2 – 2
West Ham United
J. Vardy 18′
1 – 0
1 – 1
84′ A. Carroll (PG)
1 – 2
86′ A. Cresswell
L. Ulloa (PG) 90′
2 – 2

19/20 259/100 31/10

9.

Everton
2 – 3
West Ham United
R. Lukaku 13′
1 – 0
A. Lennon 56′
2 – 0
2 – 1
78′ M. Antonio
2 – 2
81′ D. Sakho
2 – 3
90′ D. Payet

33/50 311/100 108/25

10.

Arsenal
1 – 2
Swansea City
J. Campbell 15′
1 – 0
1 – 1
32′ W. Routledge
1 – 2
74′ A. Williams

3/10 473/100 1067/100

11.

Manchester United
3 – 0
Stoke City
J. Lingard 14′
1 – 0
A. Martial 23′
2 – 0
W. Rooney 53′
3 – 0

13/20 29/10 137/25

12.

Chelsea
2 – 2
West Bromwich …
Azpilicueta 20′
1 – 0
1 – 1
33′ C. Gardner
G. McAuley (OG) 73′
2 – 1
2 – 2
86′ J. McClean

9/20 337/100 189/25

13.

AFC Bournemouth
1 – 3
West Ham United
H. Arter 17′
1 – 0
1 – 1
67′ D. Payet
1 – 2
74′ E. Valencia
1 – 3
84′ E. Valencia

Evens 53/20 143/50

14.

Manchester City
4 – 1
Sunderland
R. Sterling 12′
1 – 0
Y. Touré 17′
2 – 0
W. Bony 22′
3 – 0
K. De Bruyne 54′
4 – 0
4 – 1
59′ F. Borini

21/100 321/50 127/10

15.

Everton
4 – 0
Aston Villa
R. Barkley 17′
1 – 0
R. Lukaku 28′
2 – 0
R. Barkley 42′
3 – 0
R. Lukaku 59′
4 – 0

69/100 289/100 219/50

16.

Everton
6 – 2
Sunderland
Deulofeu 19′
1 – 0
A. Koné 31′
2 – 0
2 – 1
45′ J. Defoe
2 – 2
50′ S. Fletcher
S. Coates (OG) 55′
3 – 2
R. Lukaku 60′
4 – 2
A. Koné 62′
5 – 2
A. Koné 76′
6 – 2

49/100 349/100 154/25

17.

Southampton
3 – 1
Swansea City
V. van Dijk 11′
1 – 0
Sung-Yeung Ki (OG) 54′
2 – 0
S. Mané 61′
3 – 0
3 – 1
83′ G. Sigurðsson (PG)

87/100 64/25 363/100

18.

Tottenham Hotspur
2 – 2
Stoke City
E. Dier 19′
1 – 0
N. Chadli 45′
2 – 0
2 – 1
78′ M. Arnautović (PG)
2 – 2
83′ M. Diouf

7/10 281/100 439/100

19.

Sat 08/08/15 PRL Leicester City
4 – 2
Sunderland
J. Vardy 11′
1 – 0
R. Mahrez 18′
2 – 0
R. Mahrez (PG) 25′
3 – 0
3 – 1
60′ J. Defoe
M. Albrighton 66′
4 – 1
4 – 2
71′ S. Fletcher

4/5 269/100 189/50

20.

Leicester City
5 – 1
Queens Park Ra…
J. Vardy 16′
1 – 0
M. Albrighton 43′
2 – 0
L. Ulloa 51′
3 – 0
E. Cambiasso 52′
4 – 0
4 – 1
57′ C. Austin
A. Kramarić 86′
5 – 1

49/100 367/100 107/20