The Effect of the Opening goal by the Home Team in Brazil Serie A in the 11-20 minutes Time Band

Posted on: October 17th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

I think we can kill 3 myths on one blog

1. a 2-0 lead is not ” precarious “

2. a team that concede the opening goal are not 6% more likely to score the 2nd goal 

3. In football the high amount of draws is not as a result of a team failing to survive a lead > it is because of low goal production

 

In the table below I have added the last 30 games in Brazil Serie A where the home team opened the scoring in the 11-20 minutes time band ;

Game Pathway

5/30 1-0 FT

16/30 > 2-0 <> 15-1-0

9/30 > 1-1  <> 3-3-3

23-4-3

 

Full Time Summary 

The opening goal by the home team in Brazil Serie A in the 11-20 minutes time band  and there will be lowered expectation of the away team fighting back 

 

 

T T+1 HT FT
Corin. Mineiro 17 H39 2 0 2 0
Atlético PR Coritba 20 H68 1 0 2 0
Cruzeiro Ponte 12 H81 1 0 2 0
Coritba Mineiro 13 H49 1 0 3 0
Mineiro Inter. 15 H29 2 1 3 1
Sport Santos 11 1 0 1 0
Chap Ponte 12 A33 2 1 2 2
Fig Mineiro 15 H38 2 1 2 2
Flam Ponte 14 A67 1 0 2 1
Flum Fig 14 H20 2 0 3 2
Palm Ponte 16 A52 1 0 2 2
Santos Mineiro 12 H69 1 0 3 0
Gremio Corin 17 H48 1 0 3 0
Bot Palm 19 H35 2 0 3 1
Flum Ponte 20 H55 1 0 3 0
Fig Vitoria 15 1 0 1 0
Sport Atlético PR 17 H53 1 0 2 0
Flam Mineiro 12 H57 1 0 2 0
Flam Inter. 19 1 0 1 0
Flum Santos 14 A39 1 2 2 4
Palm Mineiro 19 H27 2 0 2 0
Mineiro Cruz 14 A19 1 1 2 3
Santos Bot 11 H35 2 0 3 0
Fig Sao 16 1 0 1 0
Sao Palm 12 1 0 1 0
Ponte Flam 12 A21 1 2 1 2
Corin. Ponte 15 H22 2 0 3 0
Santa Cruz 20 A53 1 0 4 1
Bot Atlético PR 18 A58 1 0 2 1
Sport Botafago 17 A29 1 1 1 1