The Effect of The Early Home Goal in the Premier League 2015-2016 V 2016-2017

Posted on: May 31st, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In the Premier League 2015-2016 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%

The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW 31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT

26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%

32-6-3

In the Premier League 2016-2017 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band,

75% ended over 2.5 goals and 54% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 71%

36-5-7 > the home teams won 75% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back average goal production = goal goal goal .65 44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes GAME PATHWAY

4/48 1-0 FT

25/48 > 2-0 24-0-1 home teams won 96%

19 /48 > 1-1 8-5-6 home teams won 42%

Last 89 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band

68-11-10 > the home teams won 76%

GAME PATHWAY

7/89 1-0 FT

51/89 > 2-0 48-2-1 > home teams won 94% > is a 2-0 lead ” precarious ” ?

31/89 > 1-1 13-9-9 > home teams won 42%

3 – 1
Everton
Bellerín 8′
1 – 0
A. Sánchez 27′
2 – 0
2 – 1
58′ R. Lukaku (PG)
A. Ramsey 90′
3 – 1

Tottenham Hotspur
2 – 1
Manchester United
V. Wanyama 6′
1 – 0
H. Kane 48′
2 – 0
2 – 1
71′ W. Rooney

Crystal Palace
4 – 0
Hull City
W. Zaha 3′
1 – 0
C. Benteke 34′
2 – 0
L. Milivojević (PG) 85′
3 – 0
P. van Aanholt 90′
4 – 0

Manchester City
5 – 0
Crystal Palace
David Silva 2′
1 – 0
V. Kompany 49′
2 – 0
K. De Bruyne 59′
3 – 0
R. Sterling 82′
4 – 0
N. Otamendi 90′
5 – 0

Middlesbrough
1 – 0
Sunderland
M. de Roon 8′
1 – 0

Chelsea
4 – 2
Southampton
E. Hazard 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
24′ Oriol Romeu
G. Cahill 45′
2 – 1
Diego Costa 53′
3 – 1
Diego Costa 89′
4 – 1
4 – 2
90′ R. Bertrand

AFC Bournemouth
4 – 0
Middlesbrough
J. King 2′
1 – 0
B. Afobe 16′
2 – 0
M. Pugh 65′
3 – 0
C. Daniels 70′
4 – 0

Swansea City
2 – 0
Stoke City
Llorente 10′
1 – 0
T. Carroll 70′
2 – 0

Manchester United
2 – 0
Chelsea
M. Rashford 7′
1 – 0
Ander Herrera 49′
2 – 0

Stoke City
3 – 1
Hull City
M. Arnautović 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ H. Maguire
P. Crouch 66′
2 – 1
X. Shaqiri 80′
3 – 1

Everton
4 – 2
Leicester City
T. Davies 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
4′ I. Slimani
1 – 2
10′ M. Albrighton
R. Lukaku 23′
2 – 2
P. Jagielka 41′
3 – 2
R. Lukaku 57′
4 – 2

Chelsea
2 – 1
Manchester City
E. Hazard 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
26′ S. Agüero
E. Hazard 35′
2 – 1

Chelsea
1 – 2
Crystal Palace
Fàbregas 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
9′ W. Zaha
1 – 2
11′ C. Benteke

Liverpool
3 – 1
Everton
S. Mané 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
28′ M. Pennington
Philippe Coutinho 31′
2 – 1
D. Origi 60′
3 – 1

Everton
4 – 0
Hull City
D. Calvert-Lewin 9′
1 – 0
E. Valencia 78′
2 – 0
R. Lukaku 90′
3 – 0
R. Lukaku 90′
4 – 0

Liverpool
3 – 1
Arsenal
Roberto Firmino 9′
1 – 0
S. Mané 40′
2 – 0
2 – 1
57′ D. Welbeck
G. Wijnaldum 90′
3 – 1

Watford
3 – 4
Southampton
T. Deeney 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
28′ D. Tadić
1 – 2
45′ N. Redmond
S. Okaka 79′
2 – 2
2 – 3
83′ M. Gabbiadini
2 – 4
86′ N. Redmond
A. Doucouré 90′
3 – 4

Watford
1 – 1
West Ham United
T. Deeney (PG) 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
73′ A. Ayew

Everton
6 – 3
AFC Bournemouth
R. Lukaku 1′
1 – 0
J. McCarthy 23′
2 – 0
R. Lukaku 29′
3 – 0
3 – 1
59′ J. King
3 – 2
70′ J. King
R. Lukaku 83′
4 – 2
R. Lukaku 84′
5 – 2
5 – 3
90′ H. Arter
R. Barkley 90′
6 – 3

Watford
2 – 1
Burnley
T. Deeney 10′
1 – 0
M. Niang 45′
2 – 0
2 – 1
78′ A. Barnes (PG)

West Bromwich …
1 – 0
Stoke City
J. Morrison 6′
1 – 0

Stoke City
1 – 1
Everton
P. Crouch 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
39′ R. Shawcross (OG)

Liverpool
1 – 0
Manchester City
G. Wijnaldum 8′
1 – 0

Hull City
2 – 2
Everton
M. Dawson 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ D. Marshall (OG)
R. Snodgrass 65′
2 – 1
2 – 2
84′ R. Barkley

Southampton
1 – 4
Tottenham Hotspur
V. van Dijk 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
19′ D. Alli
1 – 2
52′ H. Kane
1 – 3
85′ Heung-Min Son
1 – 4
87′ D. Alli

AFC Bournemouth
1 – 3
Southampton
N. Aké 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
14′ R. Bertrand
1 – 2
48′ J. Rodriguez
1 – 3
85′ J. Rodriguez

Liverpool
2 – 2
West Ham United
A. Lallana 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
27′ D. Payet
1 – 2
39′ M. Antonio
D. Origi 48′
2 – 2

Leicester City
4 – 2
Manchester City
J. Vardy 3′
1 – 0
A. King 5′
2 – 0
J. Vardy 20′
3 – 0
J. Vardy 78′
4 – 0
4 – 1
82′ A. Kolarov
4 – 2
90′ Nolito

Southampton
1 – 0
Everton
C. Austin 1′
1 – 0

West Bromwich …
4 – 0
Burnley
M. Phillips 4′
1 – 0
J. Morrison 16′
2 – 0
D. Fletcher 37′
3 – 0
S. Rondón 64′
4 – 0

Watford
2 – 1
Leicester City
E. Capoue 1′
1 – 0
R. Pereyra 12′
2 – 0
2 – 1
15′ R. Mahrez (PG)

Burnley
3 – 2
Crystal Palace
S. Vokes 2′
1 – 0
J. Guðmunds­son 14′
2 – 0
2 – 1
60′ C. Wickham
2 – 2
81′ C. Benteke (PG)
A. Barnes 90′
3 – 2

Stoke City
3 – 1
Swansea City
W. Bony 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
8′ W. Routledge
A. Mawson (OG) 55′
2 – 1
W. Bony 73′
3 – 1

Chelsea
4 – 0
Manchester United
Pedro 1′
1 – 0
G. Cahill 21′
2 – 0
E. Hazard 62′
3 – 0
N. Kanté 70′
4 – 0

AFC Bournemouth
6 – 1
Hull City
C. Daniels 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
34′ R. Mason
S. Cook 41′
2 – 1
J. Stanislas (PG) 45′
3 – 1
J. Stanislas 65′
4 – 1
C. Wilson 83′
5 – 1
D. Gosling 88′
6 – 1

Stoke City
2 – 0
Sunderland
J. Allen 8′
1 – 0
J. Allen 45′
2 – 0

Chelsea
3 – 0
Leicester City
Diego Costa 7′
1 – 0
E. Hazard 33′
2 – 0
V. Moses 80′
3 – 0

Tottenham Hotspur
2 – 0
Manchester City
A. Kolarov (OG) 9′
1 – 0
D. Alli 37′
2 – 0

Swansea City
1 – 2
Liverpool
L. Fer 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
54′ Roberto Firmino
1 – 2
84′ J. Milner (PG)

Crystal Palace
4 – 1
Stoke City
J. Tomkins 9′
1 – 0
S. Dann 11′
2 – 0
J. McArthur 71′
3 – 0
A. Townsend 75′
4 – 0
4 – 1
90′ M. Arnautović

West Bromwich …
4 – 2
West Ham United
N. Chadli (PG) 8′
1 – 0
S. Rondón 37′
2 – 0
J. McClean 44′
3 – 0
N. Chadli 56′
4 – 0
4 – 1
61′ M. Antonio
4 – 2
65′ M. Lanzini (PG)

West Ham United
2 – 4
Watford
M. Antonio 5′
1 – 0
M. Antonio 33′
2 – 0
2 – 1
41′ O. Ighalo
2 – 2
45′ T. Deeney
2 – 3
53′ E. Capoue
2 – 4
63′ J. Holebas

Manchester City
3 – 1
West Ham United
R. Sterling 7′
1 – 0
Fernandinho 18′
2 – 0
2 – 1
58′ M. Antonio
R. Sterling 90′
3 – 1

Chelsea
3 – 0
Burnley
E. Hazard 9′
1 – 0
Willian 41′
2 – 0
V. Moses 89′
3 – 0

West Bromwich …
1 – 2
Everton
G. McAuley 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ K. Mirallas
1 – 2
60′ G. Barry

Burnley
2 – 0
Liverpool
S. Vokes 2′
1 – 0
A. Gray 37′
2 – 0

Manchester City
2 – 1
Sunderland
S. Agüero (PG) 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
71′ J. Defoe
P. McNair (OG) 87′
2 – 1

Everton
1 – 1
Tottenham Hotspur
R. Barkley 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
59′ E. Lamela