The Effect of The Early Home Goal in the Premier League 2014-2015 V 2015-2016

Posted on: May 18th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the Premier League last season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 76% ended over 2.5 goals and 45% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 58% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 74%

The home teams won 71%, 13% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 16% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW.

42% of the early goal games  produced a goal(s) 80+ minutes

 

In the Premier League this season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%

The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW

31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes

 

GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT 

26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1  5-4-3 home teams won 42%

 

 

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80+
Arsenal Villa 5 H78 1 0 4 0 80 90
Man City Arsenal 8 A10 1 1 2 2
Leicester Everton 5 H33 2 0 3 1 88
Man UTD Leicester 8 A17 1 1 1 1
Everton Bourne. 7 A9 1 1 2 1
WHU Man UTD 10 A51 1 0 3 2 80
Leicester Swansea 10 H30 2 0 4 0 85
Liverpool Newcastle 2 H30 2 0 2 2
Liverpool Stoke 8 A22 2 1 4 1
South. Newcastle 4 H38 2 0 3 1
Arsenal Watford 4 H38 2 0 4 0 90
Spurs Bourne. 1 H16 2 0 3 0
Arsenal WBA 6 H38 2 0 2 0
Man UTD Palace 4 H55 1 0 2 0
WHU Spurs 7 1 0 1 0
Chelsea Newcastle 5 H9 3 0 5 1 83 90
Sunderland Man UTD 3 A39 1 1 2 1 82
Southampton West Ham 9 1 0 1 0
West Ham Man City 1 A9 1 1 2 2 81
Bourne. Norwich 10 H54 1 0 3 0
Southampton WBA 5 H35 2 0 3 0
Newcastle West Ham 6 H15 2 0 2 1
Liverpool Arsenal 10 A14 2 2 3 3 90
West Ham Liverpool 10 H55 1 0 2 0
Swansea WBA 9 1 0 1 0
Watford Liverpool 3 H15 2 0 3 0 85
Chelsea Sunderland 5 H13 2 0 3 1
Bourne. Man UTD 2 A24 1 1 2 1
Stoke Man City 7 H15 2 0 2 0
Man City South. 9 H20 2 0 3 1
Spurs Villa 3 H45 2 0 3 1 90
Chelsea Liverpool 4 A45 1 1 1 3 83
Bourne. Spurs 1 A9 1 3 1 5
Man City Bourne. 7 H11 4 1 5 1 89
Arsenal Man UTD 6 H7 3 0 3 0
Chelsea South. 10 A43 1 1 1 3
Sunderland West Ham 10 H22 2 1 2 2
Liverpool Villa 2 H59 1 0 3 2
Bourne. Sunderland 4 H9 2 0 2 0
West Ham Newcastle 9 H48 1 0 2 0
Swansea Newcastle 9 H52 1 0 2 0