The Effect of the Early Home Goal in the Premier League

Posted on: August 10th, 2015 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added all the games in the Premier League last season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 76% ended over 2.5 goals and 45% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 58% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 74%

The home teams won 71%, 13% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 16% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW.

42% of the games in the table below produced a goal(s) 80+ minutes

1-0 half time to the home team in the Premier League added to the early home goal metric > fairly low expectation that the game will go down the path of 1-1 with a goal by the away team in the 46-70 minutes time band and if this does happen then there will be high expectation that the game will not end 1-1.

 

T HT FT Goal 80+
Swansea WBA 2 2 0 3 0
Southamp. Newcastle 6 2 0 4 0 90
WHU Liverpool 2 2 1 3 1 88
Everton Palace 9 1 1 2 3 83
Man UTD WHU 5 2 1 2 1
Chelsea Villa 7 1 0 3 0
Sunderland Stoke 4 2 1 3 1
WHU QPR 5 1 0 2 0
WBA Man UTD 8 1 0 2 2 87
Liverpool Chelsea 9 1 1 1 2
Hull Spurs 8 1 0 1 2 90
WBA WHU 10 1 2 1 2
Stoke Arsenal 1 3 0 3 2
Chelsea Hull 7 1 0 2 0
Sunderland Hull 1 1 1 1 3 90
Stoke Man UTD 2 1 1 1 1
WHU WBA 10 1 1 1 1
Arsenal Stoke 6 2 0 3 0
Spurs Sunderland 2 1 1 2 1 88
Arsenal Villa 8 1 0 5 0 90
Man UTD Burnley 6 2 1 3 1 82
Man City Newcastle 2 3 0 5 0
WBA Southamp. 2 1 0 1 0
Spurs Swansea 7 1 1 3 2 89
Man UTD Spurs 9 3 0 3 0
Spurs Leicester 6 2 1 4 3 85 90
WHU Stoke 7 1 0 1 1 90
WBA Leicester 8 2 1 2 3 80 90
Liverpool Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
Man City Villa 3 1 0 3 2 85 89
Everton Man UTD 5 2 0 3 0
Leicester Newcastle 1 2 0 3 0
Villa Everton 10 2 0 3 2 90
Leicester Southamp. 7 2 0 2 0
Man City QPR 4 2 0 6 0 87
Chelsea Liverpool 5 1 1 1 1
WBA Chelsea 9 1 0 3 0
Arsenal WBA 4 4 0 4 1