The Effect of the Early Home Goal in the National League and 1-1 Pathway in the First Half ; Should we consider the perceived strength of a team in play ?

Posted on: November 23rd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 20 games in the National League where the home teams opened the scoring in the 0-10 minute time band > 1-1 pathway in the first half ;

4-8-8 <> the home teams won 20% < 1/0.20 = 4/1 > the average price of the home team in the table below at 1-1 would have been around 7/5 .

55% produced the “fightback” goal > 1-1 within 10 minutes of the opening goal.

65% of the games in the table below were games where the home team were defined as the perceived stronger team and had a shorter closing price then the away team and in that sample the home team won 15% ( last night at 1-1 Forest Green were offered at 6/5 and Braintree were offered at 11/8 ) ( 1/0.15 = 11/2)

If you are betting in play and triggering bets because you consider a team to be the perceived stronger , I would advise accepting that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened /strengthened via variables that may occur during a game which you should factor into your betting patterns .

footnote : closing prices added for each game 

 

 

T T+1 HT FT H D A
Forest Green Tranmere 3 4 2 1 2 2 23/20 227/100 120/50
Braintree Bromley 3 7  1 1 2 2 60/50 239/100 54/25
Aldershot Tranmere 3 36 1 1 3 1 217/100 111/50 32/25
Southport Kiddy 5 9 1 2 3 4 99/100 51/20 259/100
Aldershot Southport 9 18 1 2 1 2 73/50 117/50 179/100
Guiseley Grimsby 6 19 1 1 2 2 229/50 143/50 30/50
Grimsby Woking 4 34 3 1 3 1 50/100 33/10 12725
Altrincham Lincoln 3 7 2 2 3 3 93/50 47/20 141/100
Bromley Grimsby 6 32 1 1 1 2 411/100 73/25 63/100
Eastleigh Wrexham 10 18 1 1 1 1 133/100 239/100 97/50
Eastleigh Aldershot 8 26 1 1 1 1 30/50 299/100 109/25
Dover Bromley 8 37 1 1 2 3 17/25 149/50 357/100
Tranmere Braintree 3 5 1 2 1 2 23/25 237/100 309/100
Eastleigh Forest G. 2 21 1 2 3 2 37/20 121/50 27/20
Welling Bromley 4 25 1 1 1 2 87/50 117/50 151/100
Lincoln Altrincham 8 17 1 1 1 1 57/100 157/50 111/25
Torquay Bromley 5 8 2 3 3 7 23/20 253/100 110/50
Welling Torquay 9 20 1 1 1 1 38/25 237/100 169/100
Forest Green Bromley 6 7 2 1 2 1 13/25 160/50 50/10
Welling Braintree 6 14 1 1 1 2 101/50 237/100 133/100