The Effect of the Early Home Goal in the Championship Via Game Pathway Analysis

Posted on: May 8th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

in the Championship last  season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 72%, 19% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .

Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%

1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship last season , 65% ended a home win , 29% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 6% with 71% ending under 2.5 goals

in the Championship this  season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 38% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 68%, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 12% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .

Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 64%

The home teams won the first half in 82% of the games 

1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship this  season , 50% ended a home win , 39% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 11% with 72% ending under 2.5 goals

 

44% produced a goal 80 +

 

 

GAME PATHWAY

 

FT 1-0 >  6/50 12% 

> 2-0  22/50 <> 20-2-0 <> home teams won 91%

> 1-1 >  22/50 <> 8-8-6 <> home teams won 36%

 

 

 

 

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
Wolves Sheff Wed 7 H35 2 0 2 1 90
Blackburn Reading 8 H14 2 1 3 1 86
Brentford Fulham 5 H7 3 0 3 0
MK Dons Brentford 6 A9 1 1 1 4 89
Reading Hull 4 A18 1 1 1 2
Rotherham Hudd. 10 A22 1 1 1 1
Preston MK Dons 6 A54 1 0 1 1
Hull Wolves 5 A19 1 1 2 1 90
Boro Reading 10 A54 1 0 2 1 90
City Wed. 10 H13 3 0 4 1
Burnley Leeds 1 1 0 1 0
MK Dons Wolves 6 A62 1 0 1 2
City Bolton 3 H10 2 0 6 0 86 87
Fulham City 3 A69 1 0 1 2 90
Derby Blackburn 8 1 0 1 0
MK Dons Boro 9 A90 1 0 1 1 90
Bolton Rotherham 2 A43 1 1 2 1 90
Wolves Bolton 3 H77 1 0 2 2 81 88
Bolton MK Dons 7 H41 2 0 3 1 89 90
QPR Wolves 2 A48 1 0 1 1
Hull Charlton 9 H16 4 0 6 0 80
Wolves Fulham 6 H13 2 1 3 2
Fulham Rotherham 6 A20 2 1 4 1
Boro MK Dons 1 1 0 1 0
Brentford Hudd. 5 H21 3 0 4 2 90
Forest MK Dons 2 H16 2 0 2 1 81
Wolves Leeds 10 A44 1 1 2 3 81
Charltin Bolton 1 H25 2 2 2 2
Bolton Sheff Wed 5 A39 2 1 2 2 84
Rotherham City 9 H27 2 0 3 0
Brighton MK Dons 5 H19 2 1 2 1
Forest Derby 5 1 0 1 0
Preston Forest 2 1 0 1 0
Derby Rotherham 7 H45 2 0 3 0
Derby Wolves 3 A19 3 1 4 2
Brentford Rotherham 2 A46 1 0 2 1
City Forest 4 H11 2 0 2 0
City MK Dons 6 A90 1 0 1 1 90
Reading Boro 1 H88 1 0 2 0 88
Boro Leeds 3 H32 2 0 3 0 81
Preston Wolves 10 A90 1 0 1 1 90
Fulham QPR 2 H19 3 0 4 0
Fulham Blackburn 4 H30 2 0 2 1
Birmingham City 10 H20 3 1 4 2
Brighton Hull 5 1 0 1 0
Burnely Wed 7 A20 1 1 3 1 90
Reading Ipswich 7 A11 2 1 5 1 87
City Brentford 2 A9 2 2 2 4
Hudd. Blackburn 10 A60 1 0 1 1
Boro Bolton 7 H17 3 0 3 0