The Effect of the Early Home Goal in the Championship Via Game Pathway Analysis : 2015-2016 V 2016-2017

Posted on: May 29th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In the Championship last season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 38% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 68%, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 12% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back . Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 64% 44% produced a goal 80 + GAME PATHWAY FT 1-0 > 6/50 12%

> 2-0 22/50 <> 20-2-0 <> home teams won 91%

> 1-1 > 22/50 <> 8-8-6 <> home teams won 36%

34-10-6

In the Championship this season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ,

81.5% ended over 2.5 goals and 52% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 74% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 63%

43% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

39-10-5 > the home teams won 72%

GAME PATHWAY

5/54 1-0 FT

21/54 > 2-0 18-2-1 > home teams won 86%

28/54 > 1-1 16-8-4 > home teams won 57%

last 104 games in the Championship where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band

73-20-11 > home teams won 70%

GAME PATHWAY

11/104 1-0 FT

43/104 > 2-0 38-4-1 > home teams won 88%

50/104 > 1-1 24-16-10 > home teams won 48%

Wolverhampton …
1 – 0
Preston North End
D. Batth 1′
1 – 0

Sheffield Wedn…
1 – 2
Fulham
S. Winnall 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
25′ N. Kebano
1 – 2
79′ N. Kebano

Wigan Athletic
1 – 1
Leeds United
R. Tunnicliffe 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
50′ C. Wood (PG)

Fulham
1 – 1
Brentford
T. Cairney 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
34′ N. Yennaris

Reading
1 – 0
Wigan Athletic
Y. Kermorgant 6′
1 – 0

Newcastle United
4 – 1
Preston North End
Ayoze Pérez 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
14′ J. Hugill
C. Atsu 45′
2 – 1
M. Ritchie (PG) 65′
3 – 1
Ayoze Pérez 67′
4 – 1

Norwich City
7 – 1
Reading
Nélson Oliveira (PG) 3′
1 – 0
W. Hoolahan 15′
2 – 0
A. Pritchard 26′
3 – 0
R. Martin 31′
4 – 0
A. Pritchard 35′
5 – 0
5 – 1
39′ Y. Kermorgant
W. Hoolahan 41′
6 – 1
C. Jerome 89′
7 – 1

Aston Villa
1 – 0
Queens Park Ra…
J. Kodjia 5′
1 – 0

Brighton & Hov…
3 – 1
Birmingham City
G. Murray 2′
1 – 0
T. Hemed 48′
2 – 0
U. Hünemeier 54′
3 – 0
3 – 1
85′ Che Adams

Derby County
4 – 2
Fulham
D. Nugent 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
35′ F. Ayité
D. Nugent 42′
2 – 1
D. Nugent 59′
3 – 1
J. Russell 67′
4 – 1
4 – 2
79′ F. Ayité

Wolverhampton …
3 – 1
Cardiff City
D. Batth 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
12′ K. Zohorè
D. Batth 41′
2 – 1
Hélder Costa 82′
3 – 1

Queens Park Ra…
5 – 1
Rotherham United
M. Smith 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
13′ J. Newell
L. Freeman 15′
2 – 1
Y. N’Gbakoto (PG) 49′
3 – 1
M. Luongo 57′
4 – 1
N. Onuoha 90′
5 – 1

Nottingham Forest
2 – 2
Derby County
Z. Clough 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ M. Vydra
1 – 2
53′ D. Nugent
Dani Pinillos 90′
2 – 2

Brighton & Hov…
3 – 0
Derby County
A. Knockaert 5′
1 – 0
S. Baldock 43′
2 – 0
G. Murray 78′
3 – 0

Queens Park Ra…
2 – 1
Barnsley
Idrissa Sylla 7′
1 – 0
A. MacDonald (OG) 66′
2 – 0
2 – 1
79′ T. Bradshaw

Queens Park Ra…
2 – 1
Wigan Athletic
M. Smith 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
17′ O. Bogle (PG)
C. Washington 60′
2 – 1

Ipswich Town
1 – 1
Leeds United
F. Sears 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
42′ S. Dallas

Derby County
3 – 4
Cardiff City
J. De Sart 7′
1 – 0
D. Bent 17′
2 – 0
2 – 1
41′ K. Harris
2 – 2
47′ K. Harris
2 – 3
57′ C. Noone
D. Bent 74′
3 – 3
3 – 4
90′ J. Ralls (PG)

Preston North End
2 – 1
Birmingham City
C. Robinson 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ Che Adams
J. Hugill 78′
2 – 1

Norwich City
5 – 1
Nottingham Forest
J. Howson 10′
1 – 0
Josh Murphy 16′
2 – 0
W. Hoolahan 18′
3 – 0
A. Pritchard 61′
4 – 0
4 – 1
75′ R. McCormack
A. Pritchard 89′
5 – 1

Sheffield Wedn…
3 – 0
Birmingham City
J. Rhodes 9′
1 – 0
S. Winnall 80′
2 – 0
A. Reach 86′
3 – 0

Huddersfield Town
3 – 1
Brighton & Hov…
T. Smith 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
20′ T. Hemed
N. Wells 36′
2 – 1
E. Kachunga 45′
3 – 1

Newcastle United
2 – 2
Queens Park Ra…
J. Shelvey 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
44′ C. Washington
M. Ritchie 54′
2 – 1
2 – 2
90′ C. Clark (OG)

Rotherham United
2 – 1
Norwich City
J. Yates 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ C. Jerome
T. Adeyemi 55′
2 – 1

Newcastle United
3 – 1
Nottingham Forest
M. Ritchie 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
29′ N. Dumitru
D. Gayle 63′
2 – 1
D. Gayle 80′
3 – 1

Rotherham United
3 – 2
Wigan Athletic
A. Belaïd 8′
1 – 0
R. Wood 32′
2 – 0
D. Burn (OG) 45′
3 – 0
3 – 1
51′ Y. Wildschut
3 – 2
79′ Jordi Gómez

Wolverhampton …
3 – 2
Bristol City
D. Edwards 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
38′ T. Abraham
1 – 2
44′ A. Flint
Hélder Costa 57′
2 – 2
Ivan Cavaleiro (PG) 84′
3 – 2

Cardiff City
3 – 4
Barnsley
S. Morrison 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
19′ S. Winnall
1 – 2
32′ S. Winnall
1 – 3
43′ J. Scowen
P. Whittingham 79′
2 – 3
A. Pilkington 89′
3 – 3
3 – 4
90′ R. Williams

Huddersfield Town
2 – 1
Bristol City
E. Kachunga 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
33′ T. Abraham
N. Wells 58′
2 – 1

Norwich City
5 – 0
Brentford
Jacob Murphy 6′
1 – 0
G. Dorrans 16′
2 – 0
R. Brady 59′
3 – 0
Nélson Oliveira 79′
4 – 0
A. Pritchard 88′
5 – 0

Sheffield Wedn…
2 – 1
Preston North End
F. Forestieri 9′
1 – 0
S. Fletcher (PG) 79′
2 – 0
2 – 1
82′ E. Doyle

Barnsley
2 – 5
Nottingham Forest
S. Winnall 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
13′ H. Lansbury
M. Watkins 14′
2 – 1
2 – 2
24′ A. Vellios
2 – 3
45′ H. Lansbury
2 – 4
63′ B. Osborn
2 – 5
82′ H. Lansbury (PG)

Newcastle United
2 – 1
Cardiff City
C. Atsu 3′
1 – 0
Y. Gouffran 45′
2 – 0
2 – 1
77′ P. Whittingham

Brighton & Hov…
5 – 0
Norwich City
G. Murray 6′
1 – 0
G. Murray 60′
2 – 0
L. Dunk 64′
3 – 0
G. Murray 73′
4 – 0
A. Knockaert 84′
5 – 0

Fulham
5 – 0
Huddersfield Town
C. Martin 8′
1 – 0
T. Kalas 34′
2 – 0
Lucas Piazon 42′
3 – 0
C. Martin (PG) 63′
4 – 0
K. McDonald 66′
5 – 0

Ipswich Town
2 – 2
Rotherham United
F. Sears 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
7′ D. Ward
1 – 2
48′ D. Ward
D. McGoldrick 90′
2 – 2

Reading
2 – 0
Nottingham Forest
G. McCleary 10′
1 – 0
C. Gunter 62′
2 – 0

Newcastle United
3 – 0
Ipswich Town
Ayoze Pérez 1′
1 – 0
Ayoze Pérez 73′
2 – 0
M. Ritchie 78′
3 – 0

Cardiff City
1 – 1
Sheffield Wedn…
P. Whittingham 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
55′ D. Pudil

Preston North End
3 – 1
Huddersfield Town
T. Clarke 6′
1 – 0
A. Baptiste 42′
2 – 0
P. Gallagher 53′
3 – 0
3 – 1
81′ N. Wells

Barnsley
2 – 4
Fulham
M. Watkins 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
37′ Lucas Piazon
S. Winnall 41′
2 – 1
2 – 2
42′ S. Aluko
2 – 3
46′ S. Malone
2 – 4
65′ C. Martin

Preston North End
2 – 0
Aston Villa
B. Pearson 5′
1 – 0
J. Hugill 39′
2 – 0

Huddersfield Town
2 – 1
Rotherham United
E. Kachunga 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
34′ D. Ward
N. Wells 38′
2 – 1

Wigan Athletic
2 – 1
Wolverhampton …
A. Le Fondre 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
34′ P. Oniangué
W. Grigg 88′
2 – 1

Preston North End
1 – 0
Wigan Athletic
J. Hugill 7′
1 – 0

Norwich City
2 – 1
Wigan Athletic
Jacob Murphy 3′
1 – 0
Jacob Murphy 11′
2 – 0
2 – 1
72′ Jordi Gómez

Rotherham United
2 – 2
Bristol City
I. Brown 6′
1 – 0
A. Flint (OG) 58′
2 – 0
2 – 1
74′ T. Abraham
2 – 2
83′ B. Reid

Huddersfield Town
1 – 0
Wolverhampton …
R. van La Parra 6′
1 – 0

Nottingham Forest
4 – 3
Wigan Athletic
B. Assombalonga 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
11′ M. Jacobs
O. Burke 53′
2 – 1
2 – 2
65′ W. Grigg
O. Burke 78′
3 – 2
3 – 3
86′ W. Grigg

Reading
2 – 2
Brighton & Hov…
J. Swift 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
8′ S. Baldock
1 – 2
46′ A. Knockaert
P. McShane 59′
2 – 2

Barnsley
3 – 2
Queens Park Ra…
M. Watkins 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
47′ T. Chery (PG)
1 – 2
74′ S. Polter (PG)
C. Hourihane 77′
2 – 2
J. Scowen 89′
3 – 2

Burton Albion
3 – 1
Sheffield Wedn…
K. McFadzean 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
12′ G. Hooper (PG)
J. Irvine 45′
2 – 1
L. Dyer 77′
3 – 1

Queens Park Ra…
3 – 0
Leeds United
N. Onuoha 4′
1 – 0
T. Chery (PG) 73′
2 – 0
S. Polter 90′
3 – 0

Rotherham United
2 – 2
Wolverhampton …
D. Ward 9′
1 – 0
W. Vaulks 20′
2 – 0
2 – 1
39′ G. Saville
2 – 2
65′ J. Böðvarsson