The Effect of the Early Home Goal in League 1 Via Game Pathway Analysis

Posted on: May 10th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In 2013/2014 in league 1 where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 , 76% home wins, 17% ended a draw, and the away teams won 7%

 

Both teams scored in 66% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 56%

63% ended over 2.5 goals

In 2014/2015 in league 1 where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 , 65% home wins , 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 15%

 

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goal was landed in the first half in 79%

79% ended over 2.5 goals

This season in League 1 where the home teams opened the scoring 0-10, 71% home wins,  20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9%

 

Both teams scored in  54%  and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in  63%

65% ended over 2.5 goals

41% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes 

 

GAME PATHWAY

2/68 1-0 FT

21/68 > 1-1 5-11-5 <> home teams won  24%

45/68 > 2-0  41-3-1 <> home teams won  91%

 

 

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
Wigan Barnsley 10 A33 1 2 1 4
Bradford Chesterfield 7 H87 1 0 2 0 87
Walsall Fleetwood 2 H18 2 0 3 1 84
Coventry Sheff UTD 4 H8 2 0 3 1 87
Millwall Oldham 5 H40 2 0 3 0
Wigan Southend 9 H17 3 0 4 1
Port Vale Crewe 3 H83 1 0 3 0 83 90
Oldham Swindon 10 H82 1 0 2 0 82
Doncaster Pete 5 A44 1 1 1 2 90
Millwall Sheff UTD 2 1 0 1 0
Bradford Doncaster 7 H49 1 0 2 1 90
Pete Port Vale 2 H41 2 0 2 3 86 89
Sheff UTD Oldham 10 H21 2 0 3 0
Scunthorpe Doncaster 7 H58 1 0 2 0
Millwall Blackpool 8 H24 2 0 3 0 84
Port Vale Colchester 9 H73 1 0 2 0
Barnsley Coventry 10 H60 1 0 2 0
Fleetwood Gillingham 3 H9 2 1 2 1
Wigan Bury 7 H9 3 0 3 0
Southend Burton 7 A44 1 1 3 1 90
Chesterfield Crewe 7 H12 2 1 3 1
Rochdale Crewe 2 H6 2 2 2 2
Coventry Bury 4 H12 4 0 6 0
Port Vale Swindon 6 1 0 1 0
Rochdale Burton 8 H24 2 0 2 1
Wigan Port Vale 7 H41 2 0 3 0
Barnsley Rochdale 8 H52 1 0 6 1 84 89 90
Port Vale Bradford 2 A65 1 0 1 1
Sheff UTD Swindon 8 A79 1 0 1 1
Blackpool Scunthorpe 2 H12 3 0 5 0 82
Wigan Chesterfield 6 H38 3 0 3 1
Gillingham Bradford 4 H11 2 0 3 0 89
Oldham Colchester 5 A81 1 0 1 1 81
Barnsley Blackpool 3 A52 1 0 4 2 90 90
Shrewsbury Fleetwood 6 A86 1 0 1 1 86
Blackpool Pete 3 H31 2 0 2 0
Crewe Fleetwood 5 A10 1 1 1 1
Gillingham Rochdale 7 H80 1 0 2 0 80
Port Vale Chesterfield 6 A8 2 1 3 2 90
Coventry Barnsley 3 H18 2 0 4 3 90
Bury Blackpool 2 H10 4 2 4 3 84
Scunthorpe Barnsley 6 H41 2 0 2 0
Millwall Doncaster 5 H8 2 0 2 0
Pete Doncaster 9 H36 2 0 4 0
Chesterfield Southend 8 H37 2 0 3 0
Sheff UTD Fleetwood 1 H64 1 0 3 0
Oldham Sheff UTD 10 A30 1 1 1 1
Wigan Colchester 5 H11 4 0 5 0 87
Bury Wigan 6 H60 1 0 2 2 85 90
Gillingham Oldham 8 A28 2 2 3 3
Blackpool Chesterfield 2 H68 1 0 2 0
Colchester Btadford 7 H32 2 0 2 0
Rochdale Shrewsbury 4 H12 3 2 3 2
Chesterfield Burton 2 A46 1 0 1 2 90
Millwall Rochdale 4 A43 2 1 3 1
Walsall Crewe 3 A18 1 1 1 1
Colchester Gillingham 4 A7 2 1 2 1
Fleetwood Bradford 3 A20 1 1 1 1
Rochdale Barnsley 8 H36 2 0 3 0
Crewe Bury 3 A23 2 2 3 3 80
Wigan Scunthorpe 3 H27 2 0 3 0
Bradford Gillingham 7 A51 1 0 1 2
Bury Fleetwood 4 A17 2 2 3 4 82 84
Bury Swindon 4 H52 1 0 2 2 83
Scunthorpe Crewe 10 H65 1 0 2 0
Sheff UTD Chesterfield 3 H46 1 0 2 0
Gillingham Sheff UTD 8 H43 2 0 4 0 82 90
Walsall Oldham 8 A83 1 0 1 1 83