The Effect of the Early Home goal and 1-1 Pathway in the First Half in the MLS

Posted on: May 12th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/the-effect-of-the-early-home-goal-in-the-mls-are-the-team-that-concede-the-first-goal-more-likely-to-score-the-second-3/

In general in the MLS in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and there will be lowered expectation of the game ending a draw as a result of lowered expectation of the away team fighting back .

In the table below I have added the last 25 games in the MLS where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes and there was a fightback goal ( 1-1 ) in the first half and 36% were a response within 10 minutes of the opening goal by the home team.

If you decide that you want to back the home team  in the MLS  after they open the scoring in the 0-10 minutes  time band then considering waiting 10 minutes in order to avoid that potential quick response.

The home teams won 44%, 36% ended a draw and the away teams won 20% , and you should consider backing against the draw ( laying the draw at 1-1 ) because of the lowered expectation of the games ended 1-1 , which would mean at 2-1/1-2 that you would trade out of your position on the draw to lock in a profit.

88% ended over 2.5 goals, and 64% ended over 3.5 goals

48% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes 

 

 

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
SJ Houston 3 A43 1 1 3 1
Phil LA Galaxy 4 A15 1 1 2 2
New E Orlando 7 A30 1 1 2 2 90
Orlando New E. 2 A37 1 1 2 2 90 90
Columbus New C. 7 A15 1 1 3 2 80 87
Houston LA Galaxy 1 A4 1 3 1 4
Phil Orlando 2 A43 1 1 2 1 90
New C New E 10 A38 1 1 1 1
Orlando Chicago 4 A14 1 1 1 1
Portland Colorado 5 A13 2 1 4 1 88
Houston Colorado 3 A8 2 2 3 2
New E New RB 2 A6 1 1 2 1
Columbus Chicago 2 A9 2 1 3 1 83
Colorado Whietcaps 2 A20 1 1 2 1
Phil Montreal 8 A28 1 1 2 2
Chicago Orlando 9 A40 1 1 2 3 82 86
DC Toronto 6 A34 1 1 1 2 83
New E LA Galaxy 5 A18 2 2 2 2
Columbus Seattle 10 A24 1 1 3 2
Whitecaps DC UTD 2 A9 1 1 1 2
La Sporting 9 A22 1 1 2 1 90
La Houston 3 A11 1 1 1 1
Seattle SJ 1 A13 1 1 2 3 84
Real Montreal 3 A32 1 1 3 1 90
Houston New RB 1 A13 1 1 2 2 81