The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-1 Half Time Game State in the Premier League on Accuracy in the 2nd Half

Posted on: May 2nd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

1-1 half time in the Premier League added to the early home goal metric ( first goal of the game ) and there will be lowered expectation of the home team winning the game as a result of expectation of lowered accuracy in the second half and you should back against ( LAY THE HOME TEAM ) at half time and HEDGE with the correct score 2-1.

At Half Time in the game between Manchester United and Leicester I offered the above trading strategy on my thread via the gooners guide forum.

Manchester United were offered at half time at 6/5 and if you look at the opening goal by the home team in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 half time game state , in general there will be expectation of lowered accuracy by the HOME team in the 2nd half 

In the table below I have added the last 56  games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 and 1-1 half time game state and the home teams failed to score in the 2nd half in 54% and won 27% ( 11/4)

If you followed the above trading strategy in the 56 games in the table below then you would have won 53/56 trades which is very impressive .

 

T HT FT
Man UTD Leicester 8 1 1 1 1
Everton Bournemouth 7 1 1 2 1
Sunderland Man UTD 3 1 1 2 1
West Ham Man City 1 1 1 2 2
Bournemouth Man UTD 2 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Liverpool 4 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Southampton 10 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Liverpool 5 1 1 1 1
Spurs Swansea 7 1 1 3 2
Spurs Sunderland 3 1 1 2 1
Stoke Man UTD 2 1 1 1 1
West Ham WBA 10 1 1 1 1
Sunderland Hull 1 1 1 1 3
Liverpool Chelsea 9 1 1 1 2
Everton Palace 9 1 1 2 3
Fulham Liverpool 8 1 1 2 3
Villa Swansea 7 1 1 1 1
Stoke Southampton 1 1 1 1 1
Everton Hull 8 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Villa 6 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Villa 6 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Everton 7 1 1 2 1
Stoke Spurs 3 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Man UTD 2 1 1 1 1
Spurs Everton 1 1 1 2 2
Spurs Newcastle 5 1 1 2 1
Reading Sunderland 7 1 1 2 1
Newcastle Everton 2 1 1 1 2
Swansea Villa 9 1 1 2 2
Everton Chelsea 2 1 1 1 2
WBA Chelsea 10 1 1 2 1
QPR Everton 2 1 1 1 1
Fulham Man City 10 1 1 1 2
Wigan Stoke 5 1 1 2 2
Stoke Arsenal 10 1 1 1 1
Arsenal Wolves 8 1 1 1 1
Spurs Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
Sunderland Wigan 8 1 1 1 2
WBA Spurs 10 1 1 1 3
Arsenal Sunderland 1 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Newcastle 2 1 1 2 2
West Ham Villa 2 1 1 1 2
Stoke Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
Everton Spurs 3 1 1 2 1
Newcastle Chelsea 6 1 1 1 1
Blackpool Everton 10 1 1 2 2
Bolton Man UTD 6 1 1 2 2
Liverpool Sunderland 5 1 1 2 2
Portsmouth Villa 10 1 1 1 2
Hull Burnley 3 1 1 1 4
Stoke Arsenal 8 1 1 1 3
Everton Birmingham 5 1 1 1 1
Burnley Wigan 4 1 1 1 3
Bolton Spurs 4 1 1 2 2
Man UTD Man City 2 1 1 4 3
WBA Wigan 8 1 1 3 1