The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time in Australia A League : Next Goal Betting

Posted on: January 14th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 28 games in the A league where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and the away teams scored the second goal of the game in 3/28 10%

At half time Central Coast Mariners were offered at 9/4 to score the second goal with lowered expectation of the > 1-1 pathway in this profile .

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < the mainstream should be looking at the effect of the time of the opening goal in an individual league in terms of expectation of the other team fighting back. 25-3-0 <> 54% over 2.5 goals

T HT T+1 FT
Wellington Central 9 1 0 1 0
Wellington Central 2 1 0 H66 3 0
Western Sydney 2 1 0 A61 1 1
Newcastle Brisbane 8 1 0 H62 4 0
Melbourne Western 3 1 0 H66 2 0
Perth Central 4 1 0 H53 4 0
Brisbane Western 5 1 0 A74 3 2
Adelaide Perth 2 1 0 1 0
Melbourne Wellington 10 1 0 H55 3 0
Brisbane Adelaide 9 1 0 H79 3 0
Central Western 2 1 0 1 0
Melbourne Brisbane 5 1 0 1 0
Melbourne Melboune C 10 1 0 H53 3 0
Wellington Brisbane 4 1 0 H51 3 0
Perth Wellington 2 1 0 H60 2 1
Melbourne Central 10 1 0 H53 2 2
Perth Western 9 1 0 H77 2 1
Adelaide Western 4 1 0 1 0
Perth Sydney 9 1 0 1 0
Central Adelaide 2 1 0 1 0
Newcastle Melboune C 10 1 0 H81 2 0
Melboune C Adelaide 5 1 0 2 0
Newcastle Central 5 1 0 H62 2 1
Gold Coast Perth 7 1 0 H83 3 0
Melbourne Adelaide 6 1 0 A53 1 1
Melbourne Newcastle 6 1 0 H74 2 1
Central Melbourne 1 1 0 H84 2 0
Wellington Sydney 7 1 0 H60 2 1