The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time Game State in La Liga

Posted on: June 28th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

I devised a simple but very sophisticated strategy for a number of leagues in games where 1-0 HT to the home team and the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band in terms of lowered expectation of the away team fighting back so for example in La Liga in that profile at HT

back against 1-1 FT ) ( lay ) at HT < if still 1-0 on 69 minutes close your trade by backing 1-1 scoreline if you followed this strategy in the last 42 games in La Liga that fit the profile then you would have lost > 3/42 trades and last 74 > only 3/74 trades lost >

29-11-2

GAME PATHWAY

10/42 1-0 FT

17/42 > 2-0 16-1-0

15/42 > 1-1 > with only 7/42 > 1-1 in the 46-70 time band < this is the edge in a league in this profile < if you can see that > 1-1 in 46-70 will be a rare event < 3-10-2 31% ended over 2.5 goals with 31% producing a goal 80 + minutes Sevilla 2 - 0 Granada Ganso 4' 1 - 0 Ganso 46' 2 - 0 Real Betis 2 - 0 Eibar J. Martin 2' 1 - 0 Dani Ceballos 89' 2 - 0 Las Palmas 1 - 0 Villarreal K. Boateng 10' 1 - 0 Atlético Madrid 3 - 0 Valencia A. Griezmann 10' 1 - 0 K. Gameiro 48' 2 - 0 A. Griezmann 83' 3 - 0 Barcelona 2 - 1 Leganés L. Messi 4' 1 - 0 1 - 1 71' Unai López L. Messi (PG) 90' 2 - 1 Atlético Madrid 1 - 0 Real Betis N. Gaitán 8' 1 - 0 Celta de Vigo 3 - 1 Málaga Iago Aspas 7' 1 - 0 D. Wass 60' 2 - 0 Fontàs 73' 3 - 0 3 - 1 86' D. Wass (OG) Deportivo Alavés 1 - 1 Las Palmas Alexis 4' 1 - 0 1 - 1 57' M. Livaja Eek Leganés 2 - 0 Osasuna Rober Ibáñez 6' 1 - 0 Rober Ibáñez 57' 2 - 0 Eibar 1 - 0 Celta de Vigo Fran Rico 9' 1 - 0 Deportivo Alavés 1 - 1 Málaga Deyverson 9' 1 - 0 1 - 1 85' R. Rosales Las Palmas 1 - 0 Málaga Momo (PG) 10' 1 - 0 Sporting Gijón 2 - 0 Villarreal Jony 8' 1 - 0 Sergio Álvarez 79' 2 - 0 Barcelona 5 - 0 Espanyol L. Messi 8' 1 - 0 L. Suárez 52' 2 - 0 L. Suárez 61' 3 - 0 Rafinha 74' 4 - 0 Neymar 83' 5 - 0 Eibar 1 - 1 Deportivo La C… Adrián 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 71' F. Cartabia Las Palmas 1 - 1 Sporting Gijón Bigas 3' 1 - 0 1 - 1 48' Jony Eek Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Barcelona Mikel Oyarzabal 5' 1 - 0 Real Madrid 4 - 0 Sevilla K. Benzema 6' 1 - 0 Cristiano Ronaldo 64' 2 - 0 G. Bale 66' 3 - 0 Jesé 86' 4 - 0 Getafe 1 - 1 Eibar E. Velázquez 7' 1 - 0 1 - 1 87' Borja Bastón Atlético Madrid 3 - 0 Real Sociedad D. Reyes (OG) 8' 1 - 0 Saúl 46' 2 - 0 A. Griezmann (PG) 61' 3 - 0 Rayo Vallecano 2 - 0 Las Palmas N. Fedor 3' 1 - 0 Bebé 74' 2 - 0 Sevilla 3 - 1 Levante K. Gameiro 1' 1 - 0 Iborra 47' 2 - 0 2 - 1 55' G. Rossi Y. Konoplyanka 76' 3 - 1 Real Betis 1 - 1 Real Madrid Cejudo 7' 1 - 0 1 - 1 71' K. Benzema Villarreal 1 - 0 Real Madrid Soldado 8' 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 2 Málaga Javi Guerra 6' 1 - 0 1 - 1 59' Charles 1 - 2 87' D. Čop Atlético Madrid 1 - 0 Espanyol A. Griezmann 3' 1 - 0 Granada 2 - 0 Athletic Club A. Laporte (OG) 5' 1 - 0 I. Success 59' 2 - 0 Valencia 1 - 1 Las Palmas Paco Alcácer 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 57' Jonathan Viera Eek Athletic Club 2 - 1 Espanyol Iñaki Williams 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 51' H. Pérez Raúl García 64' 2 - 1 Eibar 1 - 1 Sevilla Borja Bastón 8' 1 - 0 1 - 1 71' K. Gameiro Eibar 1 - 1 Celta de Vigo Borja Bastón 3' 1 - 0 1 - 1 76' Iago Aspas Atlético Madrid 2 - 0 Getafe A. Griezmann 4' 1 - 0 A. Griezmann 90' 2 - 0 Getafe 1 - 0 Málaga S. Šćepović 2' 1 - 0 Espanyol 1 - 0 Getafe Salva Sevilla 3' 1 - 0 Barcelona 2 - 2 Deportivo La C… L. Messi 5' 1 - 0 L. Messi 59' 2 - 0 2 - 1 67' Lucas Pérez 2 - 2 76' Diogo Salomão Almería 2 - 0 Eibar T. Bifouma 8' 1 - 0 Verza (PG) 68' 2 - 0 Barcelona 2 - 0 Valencia L. Suárez 1' 1 - 0 L. Messi 90' 2 - 0 1 - 1 Celta de Vigo Rober Ibáñez 3' 1 - 0 1 - 1 90' T. Bongonda Barcelona 6 - 1 Rayo Vallecano L. Suárez 5' 1 - 0 Piqué 49' 2 - 0 L. Messi (PG) 56' 3 - 0 L. Messi 63' 4 - 0 L. Messi 68' 5 - 0 5 - 1 81' Bueno (PG) L. Suárez 90' 6 - 1 Elche 1 - 0 Almería Víctor Rodríguez 6' 1 - 0 Málaga 3 - 2 Getafe Juanmi 10' 1 - 0 1 - 1 55' Álvaro Vázquez Sergi Darder 57' 2 - 1 Ricardo Horta 68' 3 - 1 3 - 2 76' Álvaro Vázquez Córdoba 1 - 2 Almería F. Cartabia 10' 1 - 0 1 - 1 61' Míchel 1 - 2 66' Míchel