The Effect of The Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time Game State in Brazil Serie B ; Survival Analysis

Posted on: June 10th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

last 50 games in Brazil Serie B where the home teams opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT

43-7-0 home teams won 86% 1/0.86 = 1.16

GAME PATHWAY

10/50 FT 1-0

29/50 > 2-0 29-0-0 home teams won 100%

11/50 > 1-1 4-7-0 home teams won 36%

a monster in play edge because > 1-1 will be far less common then the betting industry predict in this profile in Brazil serie B

only 8/50 < 16% followed the pathway to > 1-1 with the fightback goal in the 46-70 minutes time band < the away teams scored in the 2nd half in only 34% 30% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes 30% ended over 2.5 goals < 9/4 + I can explain why you should not chase goals in this profile in Brazil serie B in the 2nd half < if we look at the majority of leagues where the home team open the scoring in 0-10 minute time band and 1-0 HT > 1-1 in 46-70 time band in general will result in expectation of further goal(s) production < BUT if we look at Brazil serie B for example in this profile > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 time band will be a rare event

Vila Nova
2 – 0
América Mineiro
Alípio 3′
1 – 0
Geovane 90′
2 – 0

Criciúma
1 – 0
CRB
Caio 10′
1 – 0

Oeste
2 – 0
CRB
Júlio César 8′
1 – 0
Alexandro 82′
2 – 0

Guarani
2 – 0
Figueirense
Bruno Nazário 7′
1 – 0
Caique 77′
2 – 0

Santa Cruz
2 – 1
Guarani
Halef 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
79′ Eliandro
Ricardo Bueno 84′
2 – 1

Guarani
2 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
Eliandro 8′
1 – 0
Eliandro 54′
2 – 0

Brasil de Pelotas
1 – 1
Oeste
Diogo Oliveira (PG) 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
90′ Marcus Vinícius

Joinville
1 – 0
Paraná
Fernando Viana 9′
1 – 0

Avaí
2 – 0
Goiás
Vitor 9′
1 – 0
Renato 90′
2 – 0

Londrina
1 – 0
Bahia
Anderson Leite 8′
1 – 0

Vasco da Gama
2 – 0
Atlético GO
Ederson 8′
1 – 0
Ederson 78′
2 – 0

Criciúma
4 – 0
Oeste
Douglas Moreira 10′
1 – 0
Diego Giaretta 60′
2 – 0
Jheimy 64′
3 – 0
Caique Valdivia 68′
4 – 0

Tupi
1 – 1
Londrina
Octávio 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
85′ Safira

Atlético GO
2 – 0
Luverdense
Júnior Viçosa 10′
1 – 0
Michel 56′
2 – 0

Luverdense
4 – 0
Bragantino
Luiz Otavio 9′
1 – 0
Hugo 53′
2 – 0
Hugo 56′
3 – 0
Hugo (PG) 72′
4 – 0

Paysandu
2 – 0
Ceará
Gilvan 5′
1 – 0
Gilvan 66′
2 – 0

Bragantino
2 – 0
Joinville
Rafael Grampola 4′
1 – 0
Gabriel Dias 90′
2 – 0

Vasco da Gama
2 – 0
Brasil de Pelotas
Nenê 10′
1 – 0
Luan Garcia 71′
2 – 0

Ceará
1 – 0
Bahia
Rafael Costa 4′
1 – 0

Paysandu
1 – 0
Joinville
Jhonnatan 2′
1 – 0

Brasil de Pelotas
1 – 1
Luverdense
Ramon 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
51′ Jean Patrick

Tupi
5 – 1
Paysandu
Thiago Silvy 4′
1 – 0
Vinicius Kiss 62′
2 – 0
Marcos Serrato 68′
3 – 0
3 – 1
77′ Lucas
Recife 90′
4 – 1
Vinicius Kiss 90′
5 – 1

Brasil de Pelotas
2 – 0
Bragantino
Felipe Gonçalves 8′
1 – 0
Ramon 57′
2 – 0

Brasil de Pelotas
2 – 0
Paraná
Felipe Gonçalves 6′
1 – 0
Felipe Gonçalves 69′
2 – 0

Vila Nova
3 – 1
Bragantino
Robston 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
52′ Eliandro
Thiago Brito 59′
2 – 1
Robston 67′
3 – 1

Oeste
1 – 1
Criciúma
Ligger 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
53′ Maurinho

Vitória
2 – 1
Boa
Elton 9′
1 – 0
D. Escudero 56′
2 – 0
2 – 1
61′ Felipe Alves

Bragantino
2 – 2
Macaé
Frauches (OG) 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
55′ Gedeil
Alan Mineiro (PG) 67′
2 – 1
2 – 2
78′ Pipico

Paraná
1 – 0
Sampaio Corrêa
Rafael Costa 8′
1 – 0

Vitória
4 – 1
Bahia
Guilherme Mattis 5′
1 – 0
D. Escudero (PG) 64′
2 – 0
Rogerio 82′
3 – 0
3 – 1
87′ M. Biancucchi
Robert 90′
4 – 1

América Mineiro
1 – 0
Atlético GO
Mancini (PG) 2′
1 – 0

Náutico
1 – 1
Paysandu
Pedro Carmona 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
61′ Yago Picachu

Atlético GO
2 – 0
Náutico
Juninho 6′
1 – 0
Arthur 53′
2 – 0

Náutico
2 – 0
Ceará
Ronaldo Alves (PG) 3′
1 – 0
Willian Magrão 51′
2 – 0

Vitória
4 – 1
Bragantino
D. Escudero 8′
1 – 0
Elton 47′
2 – 0
Rogerio 51′
3 – 0
3 – 1
74′ Chico
Diogo Mateus 86′
4 – 1

Ceará
2 – 1
Portuguesa
Sandro 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
62′ Jussa
Brinner (OG) 64′
2 – 1

Boa
1 – 0
Oeste
Fernando Karanga 10′
1 – 0

Joinville
1 – 0
Bragantino
Rogerio 4′
1 – 0

Boa
3 – 0
Vila Nova
Fernando Karanga 3′
1 – 0
Fernando Karanga 56′
2 – 0
Tomas Bastos 82′
3 – 0

Náutico
2 – 1
ABC
Sassá 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
50′ Rodrigo Silva
Sassá (PG) 86′
2 – 1

ABC
2 – 1
Santa Cruz
Somália 5′
1 – 0
Sueliton 49′
2 – 0
2 – 1
73′ Léo Gamalho

Santa Cruz
2 – 0
Atlético GO
Wescley 8′
1 – 0
Pingo 90′
2 – 0

Oeste
2 – 1
Boa
Serginho 2′
1 – 0
Serginho 54′
2 – 0
2 – 1
80′ Clébson

América Mineiro
2 – 0
Luverdense
Mancini 9′
1 – 0
Obina 51′
2 – 0

Ponte Preta
2 – 0
Joinville
Roni 7′
1 – 0
Rodinei 89′
2 – 0

ABC
1 – 1
Náutico
Lúcio Flávio 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
62′ Paulinho

Paraná
2 – 0
Náutico
Giancarlo 7′
1 – 0
Leonardo Luiz (OG) 53′
2 – 0

ABC
1 – 0
Sampaio Corrêa
Dênis Marques 10′
1 – 0

Vasco da Gama
3 – 0
Atlético GO
Douglas 4′
1 – 0
Marlon 71′
2 – 0
Marlon 88′
3 – 0

Bragantino
2 – 0
Atlético GO
Lincom 4′
1 – 0
Cesinha 62′
2 – 0