The Effect of the Early Away Goal ( opening goal ) and 1-1 Half Time Game State in the Premier League

Posted on: November 27th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added all the games since 2014-2015 in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 half time ;

11-15-8 <> away teams won 23.5% <> 1/ 0.235 = 4.26

At half time in the 3 games at the weekend > all three away teams at half time were priced shorter then they should have been as a result of the events in the first half .

Leicester game  > 13/10 11/8 15/4

Swansea game >  21/10 6/4  15/8

Chelsea game >     Evens 15/8 15/4

In the 34 games in the table below the home teams were a shorter price then the away team at kick off in 21/34 <> 10-8-3 <> the perceived stronger home team won 48%, 1/0.48 = 11/10

In the table below the away teams were a shorter price at kick off in 13/34 <> 5-7-1 <> the perceived stronger away team won 38% , 1/0.38 = 13/8 

 

Summary 

When you bet in play you should acknowledge that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened /strengthened by the variables that may occur during a game which you should factor before triggering your in play bets .

 

 

T HT FT Goal 80+
Chelsea Spurs 11 45 2 1 71/100 57/20 437/100
Swansea Palace 19 36 5 4 82849090 42/25 227/100 91/50
Leicester Boro 13 34 2 2 90 91/100 120/50 181/50
Swansea Man City 9 13 1 3 401/50 117/25 17/50
Arsenal South 18 29 2 1 90 31/50 301/100 101/20
Boro Palace 16 38 1 2 70/50 54/25 58/25
Swansea Man City 5 45 1 1 291/50 79/20 23/50
Newcastle Man City 14 31 1 1 523/100 347/100 110/200
Man City WBA 6 19 2 1 70/200 427/100 913/100
Chelsea West Ham 17 45 2 2 89 81/100 271/100 371/100
Palace Watford 16 45 1 2 82 60/50 56/25 269/100
Sunderland Bourne 13 45 1 1 89/50 233/100 42/25
Watford Spurs 17 41 1 2 89 56/25 119/50 27/20
WBA Spurs 15 39 1 1 181/50 267/100 83/100
Villa Watford 17 41 2 3 85 89 44/25 219/100 179/100
Man City Newcastle 18 42 6 1 23/100 299/50 243/20
West Ham Norwich 9 33 2 2 83 90 50/40 49/20 59/25
Norwich Stoke 11 28 1 1 117/100 237/100 129/50
Palace Arsenal 16 28 1 2 104/25 297/100 70/100
Stoke Sunderland 1 27 1 1 41/50 61/25 409/100
Newcastle South 14 29 1 2 93/50 110/50 42/25
Newcastle Everton 5 34 3 2 84 79/50 47/20 37/20
South Man UTD 12 31 1 2 189/100 119/50 77/50
Villa Leicester 13 17 2 1 147/100 231/100 203/100
WHU Swansea 19 41 3 1 87 27/20 47/20 221/100
Palace Liverpool 2 17 3 1 81 63/20 251/100 97/100
Man City Swansea 9 19 2 1 90/250 87/20 787/100
QPR Stoke 11 42 2 2 88 177/100 53/25 91/50
Chelsea Swansea 11 45 4 2 81 86 80/250 219/50 981/100
Sunderland Spurs 2 4 2 2 82 269/100 61/25 111/100
Leicester Arsenal 20 22 1 1 82/25 51/20 91/100
Newcastle Palace 1 37 3 3 88 90 69/100 67/25 467/100
Sunderland Man UTD 17 30 1 1 222/50 151/50 33/50
WBA Sunderland 5 42 2 2 85 111/100 59/25 69/25