The Effect of the Early Away Goal ( opening goal ) and 1-1 Half Time Game State in the Premier League

Posted on: January 2nd, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added all the games since 2014-2015 in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 half time ;

13-17-8 <> away teams won 21% 1/0.21 = 15/4 <> did you back Liverpool at HT at Sunderland at 4/9 ?

In the games in the table below where a team were odds on before the game started > FT > 2-2 2-1 ( lost ) 1-1 2-1 (won ) 2-2 3-1 ( won ) 2-1 ( won ) 1-1 1-1 2-1 ( won ) 2-2 1-1 6-1 ( won ) 2-1 ( won ) 1-1 3-1 ( lost ) 2-1 ( won ) 4-2 ( won ) 1-1 3-3 1-1 < the teams that were odds on ( before the game started ) won 38% > 1/0.38 = 13/8

Summary

When you bet in play you should acknowledge that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened /strengthened by the variables that may occur during a game which you should factor before triggering your in play bets .

The opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 time band and 1-1 half time in the Premier League and in general you will see lowered expectation of an away win even if the away team was the perceived stronger before the game started .

T HT FT Goal 80+
Sunderland Liverpool 19 1 1 2 2 84 228/25 253/50 30/100
Everton Arsenal 20 1 1 2 1 86 309/100 111/40 23/25
Watford Everton 17 1 1 3 2 86 113/50 58/25 67/50
Man UTD West Ham 2 1 1 1 1 70/200 447/100 811/100
Chelsea Spurs 11 45 2 1 71/100 57/20 437/100
Swansea Palace 19 36 5 4 82849090 42/25 227/100 91/50
Leicester Boro 13 34 2 2 90 91/100 120/50 181/50
Swansea Man City 9 13 1 3 401/50 117/25 17/50
Arsenal South 18 29 2 1 90 31/50 301/100 101/20
Boro Palace 16 38 1 2 70/50 54/25 58/25
Swansea Man City 5 45 1 1 291/50 79/20 23/50
Newcastle Man City 14 31 1 1 523/100 347/100 110/200
Man City WBA 6 19 2 1 70/200 427/100 913/100
Chelsea West Ham 17 45 2 2 89 81/100 271/100 371/100
Palace Watford 16 45 1 2 82 60/50 56/25 269/100
Sunderland Bourne 13 45 1 1 89/50 233/100 42/25
Watford Spurs 17 41 1 2 89 56/25 119/50 27/20
WBA Spurs 15 39 1 1 181/50 267/100 83/100
Villa Watford 17 41 2 3 85 89 44/25 219/100 179/100
Man City Newcastle 18 42 6 1 23/100 299/50 243/20
West Ham Norwich 9 33 2 2 83 90 50/40 49/20 59/25
Norwich Stoke 11 28 1 1 117/100 237/100 129/50
Palace Arsenal 16 28 1 2 104/25 297/100 70/100
Stoke Sunderland 1 27 1 1 41/50 61/25 409/100
Newcastle South 14 29 1 2 93/50 110/50 42/25
Newcastle Everton 5 34 3 2 84 79/50 47/20 37/20
South Man UTD 12 31 1 2 189/100 119/50 77/50
Villa Leicester 13 17 2 1 147/100 231/100 203/100
WHU Swansea 19 41 3 1 87 27/20 47/20 221/100
Palace Liverpool 2 17 3 1 81 63/20 251/100 97/100
Man City Swansea 9 19 2 1 90/250 87/20 787/100
QPR Stoke 11 42 2 2 88 177/100 53/25 91/50
Chelsea Swansea 11 45 4 2 81 86 80/250 219/50 981/100
Sunderland Spurs 2 4 2 2 82 269/100 61/25 111/100
Leicester Arsenal 20 22 1 1 82/25 51/20 91/100
Newcastle Palace 1 37 3 3 88 90 69/100 67/25 467/100
Sunderland Man UTD 17 30 1 1 222/50 151/50 33/50
WBA Sunderland 5 42 2 2 85 111/100 59/25 69/25