The Effect of the Early Away Goal in the Premier League 2016-2017

Posted on: October 12th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

http://www.soccerstats.com/latest.asp?league=england

 

18% of regular season completed : 70 matches / 380
Home wins : 40% Over 1.5 goals : 80%
Draws : 24% Over 2.5 goals : 54%
Away wins : 36% Over 3.5 goals : 29%
Goals : 196 Goals p. match (Home) : 1.49
Goals p. match : 2.80 Goals p. match (Away) : 1.31
Both teams scored : 61%

 

The data above is for all games in the Premier League this season ( 70 games )

Does the above data provide an insight into expectation of goal production as time decays in a game ?

In the table below I have added all the games in the Premier League this season where the away team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and the average goal production was 3.25 which is higher then the average for all games (2.80)

100% ended BTTS YES ( 61% for all games )

83% ended over 2.5 goals ( 54% for all games )  and 33% ended over 3.5 goals ( 29% for all games )

 

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
Boro Spurs 7 A23 0 2 1 2
Swansea Man City 9 H13 1 1 1 3
Hull Arsenal 17 A55 0 1 1 4 83 90
Chelsea Liverpool 17 A36 0 2 1 2
Swansea Chelsea 18 H59 0 1 2 2 81
Arsenal Southampton 18 H29 1 1 2 1 90
Boro Palace 16 H38 1 1 1 2
UTD City 15 A36 1 2 1 2
Palace Bourne 11 H90 0 1 1 1 90
Watford Arsenal 9 A40 0 3 1 3
Sunderland Boro 13 A45 0 2 1 2
Southamp. Watford 9 H58 0 1 1 1

 

half time summary 

How does the early away goal metric in the Premier League ( opening goal by away team in the 0-20 time band ) effect expectation of goal production and effect expectation of the home team fighting back as time decays in the game ???????

Game Pathway 

6 > 1-1   <> 1-3-2 away teams won 33%

6 > 0-2  <>  0-0-6 away teams won 100%

1-3-8 away teams won 67%

 

Last  season in the Premier League in games where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band ,  76% ended over 2.5 and 46% ended over 3.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%

The home teams won 13%, 25% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 62%

GAME PATHWAY

6/63 0-1 FT 

29/63 > 1-1 <>  7-13-9 away teams won  31%

28/63 > 0-2 <>  1-3-24 away teams won  86%

 

 

2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Games 45 54 69 62 69 65 59 63
Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76%
Over3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42% 46%
0-1 HT % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48% 50%
0-1 HT Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95% 69%
0-1 HT Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19%
0-1 HT Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5% 12%
1-1 HT Away W% 27% 8% 15% 33% 30% 25% 13% 13%
Goal 80+ 42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38%
Home Win 20% 33% 22% 13% 23% 25% 22% 13%
Draw 27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25%
Away Win 53% 43% 49% 72% 49% 57% 61% 62%
BTTS YES 69% 78% 78% 68% 85.50% 69% 71% 73%
over 1.5 FH 58% 57% 65% 58% 67% 55% 66% 75%

 

 

 

Full Time Summary 

You may have noticed that season on season in the Premier League that games where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and BTTS YES will be very high for the simple reason of expectation of the home team fighting back with the caveat that 0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric in the Premier League and lowered expectation of the home team fighting back

The football data that the mainstream are offering is very weak in general and I am wondering if they are going for a dumb and dumber approach because they feel that their  target audience is not ready for in depth football analysis ?

My suspicion is that is the mainstream football ” stattos ”  are not ready for in depth football analysis and if they do not step up then they will be left behind .