The Effect of the Early Away Goal in the Premier League 2008-2009-2015-2016

Posted on: May 18th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Does the early away goal in the Premier League which I define as a game where the away team opens the scoring with a  goal in the 0-20 minutes time band accelerate goal production ?

 

This season in the Premier League in games where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band ,  76% ended over 2.5 and 46% ended over 3.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%

The home teams won 13%, 25% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 62%

0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric in the Premier League and in general lowered expectation of the home teams fighting back  and winning even if they are the perceived stronger team.

The early away goal in the Premier League and 1-1 half time game state and in general lowered expectation of the away teams winning the second half even if they are the perceived stronger team.

 

GAME PATHWAY

6/63 0-1 FT 

29/63 > 1-1 <>  7-13-9 away teams won  31%

28/63 > 0-2 <>  1-3-24 away teams won  86%

 

 

 

2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Games 45 54 69 62 69 65 58 63
Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76%
Over3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42% 46%
0-1 HT % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48% 50%
0-1 HT Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95% 69%
0-1 HT Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19%
0-1 HT Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5% 12%
1-1 HT Away W% 27% 8% 15% 33% 30% 25% 13% 31%
Goal 80+ 42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38%
Home Win 20% 33% 22% 13% 23% 25% 22% 13%
Draw 27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25%
Away Win 53% 43% 49% 72% 49% 57% 61% 62%
BTTS YES 69% 78% 78% 68% 85.50% 69% 71% 73%
over 1.5 FH 58% 57% 65% 58% 67% 55% 66% 75%

 

 

 

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
Swansea Man City 5 H45 1 1 1 1
Norwich Watford 11 H15 3 1 4 2
Sunderland Chelsea 14 H41 1 2 3 2
Bourne. WBA 16 H82 0 1 1 1 82
Bourne. Chelsea 5 A34 1 2 1 4 90
Villa South. 15 A39 1 2 2 4 85 90
Newcastle Man City 14 H31 1 1 1 1
Stoke Spurs 9 A67 0 1 0 4 82
Man City WBA 6 H19 1 1 2 1
WHU Arsenal 18 A35 2 2 3 3
WHU Palace 15 H18 2 1 2 2
Bourne. Man City 7 A12 0 3 0 4 90
Man City Man UTD 16 0 1 0 1
South Liverpool 17 A22 0 2 3 2 83 86
Watford Stoke 18 A51 0 1 1 2 86
Chelsea West Ham 17 H45 1 1 2 2 89
Everton Arsenal 7 A42 0 2 0 2
Stoke South. 11 A30 0 2 1 2
Norwich Chelsea 1 A45 0 2 1 2
Villa Everton 5 A30 0 2 1 3
Leicester WBA 11 H30 2 1 2 2
Spurs Swansea 19 H70 0 1 2 1
Villa Liverpool 16 A26 0 2 0 6
Bourne. Stoke 9 A52 0 1 1 3
Palace Watford 16 H45 1 1 1 2 82
Everton WBA 14 0 1 0 1
Stoke Everton 11 A28 0 3 0 3
Man City Leicester 3 A48 0 1 1 3 87
Sunderland Man City 16 0 1 0 1
Norwich Spurs 2 A30 0 2 0 3 90
Everton Swansea 17 H26 1 2 1 2
Sunderland Bourne. 13 H45 1 1 1 1
Norwich Liverpool 18 H29 2 1 4 5 90 90
Swansea Sunderland 3 H21 2 1 2 4 85
Newcastle Man UTD 9 A38 1 2 3 3 90
WHU South. 13 H69 0 1 2 1
Everton Stoke 16 H22 1 2 3 4 80 90
Watford Spurs 17 H41 1 1 1 2 89
Villa Arsenal 8 A38 0 2 0 2
Sunderland Watford 4 0 1 0 1
Norwich Everton 15 H47 0 1 1 1
Swansea Leicester 5 A22 0 2 0 3
WBA Spurs 15 H39 1 1 1 1
Palace Newcastle 10 H14 3 1 5 1 90
Villa Watford 17 H41 1 1 2 3 85 89
Man City Liverpool 7 A23 1 3 1 4 81
Swansea Bourne. 10 A26 2 2 2 2
South Stoke 10 0 1 0 1
Watford Man UTD 11 H87 0 1 1 2 87 90
Swansea Stoke 4 0 1 0 1
Everton Man UTD 18 A22 0 2 0 3
Man City Newcastle 18 H42 1 1 6 1
West Ham Norwich 9 H33 1 1 2 2 83 90
Man City WHU 6 A31 1 2 1 2
Newcastle Watford 10 A28 0 2 1 2
Villa Sunderland 8 H11 2 1 2 2
Liverpool WHU 3 A29 0 2 0 3 90
WBA Chelsea 20 A30 1 3 2 3
WHU Bourne. 11 A28 0 2 3 4 82
Norwich Stoke 11 H28 1 1 1 1
Palace Arsenal 16 H28 1 1 1 2
WBA Man City 9 A24 0 2 0 3
Everton Watford 13 H76 0 1 2 2 83 86