The Effect of the Early Away Goal in the Championship Via Game Pathway Analysis

Posted on: May 12th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

 

This season in the Championship in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 63% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%

The home teams won 16%, 24% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 60%

37%  produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

0-1 half time goal 0-20 in the Championship this season , the away teams won 59%, 28% ended a draw and the home teams won 13%, 59% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in 28% ( higher then in previous seasons ) 

 

GAME PATHWAY

0-1 FT <>  7/94 

> 1-1  53/94       56% <>  12-23-18 <> away teams won  34%

> 0-2  34/94      36%  3-0-31 <> away teams won  91%

 

 

2013-2014 > Championship > early away goal games = 100 > 71% ended over 2.5 goals with 62% ending over 1.5 goals in the first half and both teams scored in 81% and the away teams won 55%, 26% ended  a draw and 19% ended  in a home win.

2014-2015 > Championship > early away goal games = 86 > 60% ended over 2.5 goals with 50% ending over 1.5 goals in the first half and both teams scored in 66% and the away teams won  59%, 26% ended a draw and 15% ended in a home win.

2013-2014 > Championship > early away goal games > 0-1 half time = 38> 58% ended in an away win, 29% ended a draw and the home teams won 13% and 53% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 21%

2014-2015 > Championship > early away goal games > 0-1 half time = 43> 56% ended in an away win, 35% ended a draw and the home teams won 9% and 74% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 14%

0-1 half time in the Championship added to the early away goal metric and lowered expectation of the away team winning the second half with some expectation of the home team fighting back but low expectation of the home team winning even if they are the perceived much stronger team.

 

 

 

T T+1 HT FT Goal 80+
Hudd Brentford 1 H50 0 1 1 5 88
Charlton Burnley 20 A49 0 1 0 3
MK Dons Forest 8 H19 1 1 1 2
Hull Rotherham 16 H25 4 1 5 1
Cardiff Birmingham 11 H26 1 1 1 1
Rotherham Blackburn 6 0 1 0 1
Hull Leeds 15 H45 2 1 2 2 88
Charlton Brighton 8 H51 0 1 1 3 90
Cardiff Bolton 7 H55 0 1 2 1 90
Preston Burnley 6 0 1 0 1
Reading Birmingham 2 A27 0 2 0 2
MK Dons Rotherham 1 A17 0 2 0 4
Preston Fulham 5 H63 0 1 1 2
City Rotherham 12 H54 0 1 1 1
QPR Boro 18 H31 1 1 2 3 86
Preston QPR 5 H90 0 1 1 1 90
Hudd Burnley 14 A30 1 3 1 3
Fulham Burnley 9 H17 2 1 2 3
Reading Fulham 8 H24 2 1 2 2
Brentford Charlton 1 H26 1 1 1 2
Hudd Ipswich 19 0 1 0 1
Fulham Boro 3 A20 0 2 0 2
Charlton Reading 4 H6 1 3 3 4 84 90
Boro Cardiff 20 H25 1 1 3 1 83
Leeds Fulham 17 H38 1 1 1 1
City Brighton 8 A21 0 2 0 4
Birmingham Leeds 11 A50 0 1 1 2
Wolves Preston 17 A53 0 1 1 2
Forest Hudd 14 A84 0 1 0 2 84
Sheff Wed Burnley 3 H48 0 1 1 1
Rotherham Charlton 4 H11 1 2 1 4 90
Reading Sheff Wed 10 H74 0 1 1 1
Ipswich Preston 7 H38 1 1 1 1
Hudd Fulham 2 H19 1 1 1 1
Blackburn Brighton 3 0 1 0 1
Brentford Burnley 12 A30 0 3 1 3
MK Dons Burnley 14 A46 0 1 0 5 82
Ipswich Leeds 1 H50 0 1 2 1 90
Leeds Derby 13 H42 1 1 2 2
Cardiff Forest 9 H13 1 1 1 1
Reading Brentford 17 H58 0 1 1 2
Sheff Wed Wolves 16 H20 2 1 4 1 90
Brighton Boro 4 A44 0 2 0 3
Fulham ipswich 1 H14 1 1 1 2
Hudd City 7 A29 0 2 1 2 84
Fulham Brentford 18 H40 1 1 2 2
MK Dons Ipswich 10 0 1 0 1
Rotherham Wolves 5 H18 1 2 1 2
Brighton Charlton 2 A5 0 2 3 2 83 85
Bolton Cardiff 13 H17 1 1 2 3 80
Birmingham Hudd 1 A81 0 1 0 2 81
Bolton Brentford 10 H65 0 1 1 1
Forest Reading 14 H20 2 1 3 1
Hudd Boro 9 A84 0 1 0 2 84
Fulham Preston 11 H77 0 1 1 1
Hull Derby 18 A34 0 2 0 2
Burnley Brighton 1 H4 1 1 1 1
Fulham Birmingham 19 A22 0 3 2 5 82 90 90
Rotherham Ipswich 8 A22 0 3 2 5
Reading Hudd. 2 H15 1 2 2 2 84
Bristol C. Fulham 2 A18 0 4 1 4 90
MK Dons Hull 19 A90 0 1 0 2 90
Birmingham Wolves 11 A84 0 1 0 2 84
Leeds Blackburn 1 A6 0 2 0 2
Hundersfiled Derby 15 H31 1 1 1 2
Fulham Reading 13 A49 0 1 4 2
Wolves Brentford 17 A88 0 1 0 2 88
Bolton Birmingham 17 0 1 0 1
Brighton Bristol C. 17 H53 0 1 2 1 82
Charlton Preston 2 A36 0 2 0 3
Birmingham QPR 17 H24 1 1 2 1
Leeds Brighton 14 H22 1 1 1 2 89
Brighton Cardiff 5 H38 1 1 1 1
QPR Bolton 8 A11 2 2 4 3 85 90
Rotherham Burnley 9 H75 0 1 1 2 81
Burnley Reading 5 A9 0 2 1 2
Brentford Preston 1 H62 0 1 2 1
Bristol C. Reading 9 A13 0 2 0 2
Hundersfiled Bolton 3 H45 1 1 4 1 83
Forest Boro 3 H7 1 2 1 2
QPR Blackburn 14 H46 0 1 2 2
Cardiff Hull 8 A80 0 1 0 2 80
Charlton Hudd. 11 A34 1 2 1 2
Brentford Reading 17 A32 0 2 1 3 90
Ipswich Brighton 10 A12 0 2 2 3
Rotherham Fulham 7 A16 0 2 1 3 90
Boro Bristol C. 8 0 1 0 1
Blackburn Cardiff 5 H88 0 1 1 1 88
Derby Boro 16 H88 0 1 1 1 88
Hundersfiled Brighton 1 H54 0 1 1 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 H21 1 1 2 1
Forest Rotherham 13 H45 1 1 2 1
Burnley Birmingham 10 H51 0 1 2 2 81
Rotherham MK Dons 5 H13 1 3 1 4