The Effect of the early away goal and 1-1 half time in Japan J2 League

Posted on: October 8th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In general the early goal in a game of football will result in acceleration of goal production but you should not take a blanket approach with regard to  the early goal metric because  the game state ( current score ) will play a crucial role in the effect on accuracy as time decays in a game.

The table below shows the last 40 games in the Japan J2 league where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minute time band and the half time score was 1-1 and 60% ended over 2.5 goals and only 32.5% ended over 3.5 goals so in this profile of game in Japan J2 league you should not get over excited about backing goals in the second half.

The home teams won 17.5%, 50% ended a draw ( DRAW BIAS ) and the away teams won 32.5%.

 

Via my in play thread on the GOONERS GUIDE FORUM <> NAPE > 

 

Tokyo Verdy 1-1 HT

13/10 6/4  Santa 10/3

over 3.5 at 5/4

we should see fairly HIGH DRAW BIAS with lowered expectation of goal production in 2nd half

over 3.5 is offered at 5/4 and should be 7/4 +

over 2.5 is offered at 2/7 and should be around 4/6

 

Tokyo Verdy at 1-1 HT are vulnerable at  13/10 and should be much bigger > around 4/1 for the simple reason that the early away goal and 1-1 HT Japan J2

1. no home bias

2. lowered expectation of goal production 2nd half = fairly high draw bias …

indeed all the value is with the draw

 

 

 

 

T HT
Verdy Giravanz 1 1 1
Vortis Machida 11 1 1
Giravanz Fagiano 16 1 1 1 2 1 3
Montedio JEF 13 1 1
Machida JEF 5 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 3
Cerezo Fagiano 13 1 1 2 1
Gifu Shimizu 4 1 1
Shimizu Kama 2 1 1 2 1 2 2
Mito Ehime 8 1 1 1 2
V-Varen Matsu. 9 1 1
Fagiano Kama 15 1 1 1 2
V-Varen Gifu 6 1 1 2 1
Omiya Cerezo 11 1 1 1 2
Ehime Fagiano 2 1 1
Thespa Tokyo 4 1 1 1 2 1 3
Oita Mito 3 1 1
JEF Gifu 13 1 1 2 1 3 1
Oita Kyoto 2 1 1 2 1 2 2
Mito Oita 20 1 1
Zweigen Consadole 9 1 1
Omija Consadole 16 1 1
V-Varen Tokyo 13 1 1
Zweigen Yoko 9 1 1 1 2
Zweigen Yoko. 9 1 1 1 2
Yamagata Tokyo 9 1 1 1 2
Yamagata Consadole 1 1 1 2 1
Kat. Monte. 2 1 1
Oita Ehime 10 1 1 2 1 2 2
Jublio Fagiano 11 1 1
Giravanz Jublio 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2
Kyoto Monte. 9 1 1 1 2 2 2
Mito JEF 20 1 1 1 2
Kam. Jublio 20 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4
Gainare Thespa 3 1 1
Yoko. Matsu. 15 1 1 1 2 1 3
Tochigi Consadole 18 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 4 3
Toku Thespa 6 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1
Gamba Fagiano 2 1 1
Kat, Avispa 13 1 1 1 2
Gamba JEF 18 1 1