The Effect of the Early Away Goal and 0-2 Half Time Game State in the Premier League

Posted on: December 4th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 30 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-2 half time game state ;

2-1-27 <> away teams won 90% 1/0.90 = 1.11

The home teams in the second half failed to score in the second half in 50%

The away teams failed to score in the second half in 47% and scored over 3.5 goals in only 17% , 1/0.17 = 5/1

If your gut instinct at half time had expectation of Liverpool scoring over 3.5 goals then the data suggested that there would be lowered expectation of that happening given the effects of the first half

T HT FT
Bourne Liverpool 20 0 2 4 3
WBA Man City 19 0 2 0 4
Chelsea Liverpool 17 0 2 1 2
Sunderland Boro 13 0 2 1 2
Southampton Liverpool 17 0 2 3 2
Everton Arsenal 7 0 2 0 2
Stoke South 11 0 2 1 2
Villa Everton 5 0 2 1 3
Norwich Chelsea 1 0 2 1 2
Villa Liverpool 16 0 2 0 6
Norwich Spurs 2 0 2 0 3
Villa Arsenal 8 0 2 0 2
Swansea Leicester 5 0 2 0 3
Everton Man UTD 18 0 2 0 3
Newcastle Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Liverpool West Ham 3 0 2 0 3
WHU Bourne 11 0 2 3 4
WBA City 9 0 2 0 3
Palace Arsenal 8 0 2 1 2
Sunderland QPR 17 0 2 0 2
WBA Spurs 6 0 2 0 3
Spurs Stoke 6 0 2 1 2
WBA Palace 16 0 2 2 2
Sunderland Swansea 7 0 2 1 3
Palace Man City 4 0 2 0 2
Norwich Liverpool 4 0 2 2 3
WHU Man UTD 8 0 2 0 2
Hull Newcastle 10 0 2 1 4
Cardiff Hull 18 0 2 0 4
Newcastle Sunderland 19 0 2 0 3