The Effect of the Early Away Goal and 0-1 Half Time in Ligue 2

Posted on: April 23rd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < well bang on  in this profile of game Thumbs Up

 

In the table below I have added all the games this season in Ligue 2 where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 and 0-1 half time game state and the home teams scored the 2nd goal of the game in 56%.

0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric Ligue 2 2014-2015 > 48% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 14% 

0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric Ligue 2 2013-2014 > 59% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 19%

In the table below 67% ended UNDER 2,5 goals and the away teams won the second half in only 15%

The home teams won 15%, 41% ended a draw and the away teams won  44%

0-1 half time added to the early away goal in Ligue 2 in the 0-20 minutes time band and the away team will be vulnerable in the second half.

In this profile we can see that if the game goes to the 1-1 pathway with the second goal in the 46-70 time band that there will be expectation of further goal(s) and lowered expectation of an away win .

 

http://www.sotdoc.co.uk/the-effect-of-the-early-away-goal-and-0-1-ht-game-state-ligue-2/

 

 

T HT T+1 FT
Ajaccio Val 9 0 1 H82 1 1
Red Star Niort 16 0 1 A88 0 2
Laval Sochaux 18 0 1 A90 1 2
Red Star Auxerre 19 0 1 A53 0 2
Red Star Nimes 19 0 1 0 1
Niort Paris 7 0 1 H58 2 1
Laval Lens 6 0 1 H83 1 1
Paris Auxerre 10 0 1 H57 2 2
Evian Metz 4 0 1 0 1
Tours Ajaccio 5 0 1 H55 1 1
Auxerre Sochaux 17 0 1 H62 2 1
Evian Brest 18 0 1 A54 0 2
Nimes Le Havre 19 0 1 A53 2 2
Paris Lens 20 0 1 0 1
Sochaux Nancy 19 0 1 H67 2 2
Val Ajaccio 15 0 1 H54 1 1
Nimes Tours 16 0 1 H84 2 1
Lens Niort 9 0 1 H52 1 1
Tours Le Havre 1 0 1 0 1
Lens Laval 5 0 1 H46 1 1
Val Le Havre 15 0 1 0 1
Paris Brest 1 0 1 H83 1 1
Red Star Val 17 0 1 H58 1 5
Laval Red Star 17 0 1 H65 2 1
Niort Sochaux 12 0 1 H85 1 1
Sochaux Metz 2 0 1 0 1
Niort Val 4 0 1 0 1