The Effect of the Early Away and 0-1 Half Time Game State in Brazil Serie A added to the home fightback in the 46-70 Minutes time band

Posted on: June 19th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark

If you were looking at the Sao Paulo game at Half Time in terms of the expected goal totals in the 2nd half < they key would be to understand what tools Joe Public / the football trading houses would have had at their disposal to make an accurate prediction of the total amount of expected goals in the second half added to expectation or lack of expectation of sao fighting back in the 2nd half in terms of not losing the game >

at HT the prices were as follows >

10/3 21/10 20/21

over 2.5 was offered at 11/10

sao 2nd goal 4/6 , no 2nd goal 11/4 , Minero 2nd goal 3/1

a football trading house betting on the goals market in this game would look at the expected goal total in the game as time decays to match up to the actual score to define if there would be an edge in backing under / overs in the game >

I have looked at the effect of the time of the opening goal and here are my thoughts >

I had at HT a 40% expectation re over 2.4 goals so no value at HT in backing overs based on Brazil Serie A 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes sample data >

from my perspective the game produced a monster signal re further goals at 1-1 on 46 minutes which I define as a quick 2nd half fightback goal >

as a result I had very low expectation that the game would end 1-1 > naturally it was 1-1 on 46 so the market was also confident of over 2.5 goals > but rather less confident of over 2.5 goals late in the game < so the timing of your trades / drip feeding your bets / trades is crucial as well as understanding if the price you hit is value or not > that can be a key issue in terms of subjectivity

last 21 games 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes in Brazil Serie A added to the home fightback > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band we can see that 1-1 FT will be a rare event >

People think that Brazil Serie A in general is boring = low goal production > in this profile the home fightback metric in Brazil Serie A in general will act as a catalyst for further goal(s) which in general the market will not be expecting

18/21 ended over 2.5 goals = 86% 1/0.86 = 1.16 with 38% over 3.5 goals = 13/8

33% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

10-5-6

São Paulo
1 – 2
Atlético Mineiro
0 – 1
8′ J. Cazares
Marcinho 46′
1 – 1
1 – 2
81′ Rafael Moura

América Mineiro
2 – 2
Sport Recife
0 – 1
12′ R. Wallace
Danilo Barcelos 53′
1 – 1
Michael 64′
2 – 1
2 – 2
80′ Ronaldo Alves

Coritiba
1 – 1
Fluminense
0 – 1
15′ Gum
Leandro 64′
1 – 1

Fluminense
1 – 2
Flamengo
0 – 1
12′ William Matheus (OG)
Marcos Júnior 47′
1 – 1
1 – 2
54′ Fernandinho

Fluminense
3 – 1
Sport Recife
0 – 1
11′ Gum (OG)
Marcos Júnior 54′
1 – 1
Richarlison 66′
2 – 1
Gustavo Scarpa 87′
3 – 1

Sport Recife
1 – 3
Palmeiras
0 – 1
11′ Erik
Gabriel Xavier 59′
1 – 1
1 – 2
66′ Gabriel Jesus
1 – 3
72′ Cleiton Xavier (PG)

Figueirense
1 – 1
Atlético Mineiro
0 – 1
8′ Fred
Gustavo Ermel 52′
1 – 1

Chapecoense
3 – 1
América Mineiro
0 – 1
20′ Rafael Bastos (PG)
Bruno Rangel (PG) 48′
1 – 1
Silvinho 77′
2 – 1
Bruno Rangel 78′
3 – 1

Santos
2 – 1
Coritiba
0 – 1
20′ Kléber
Vitor Bueno 62′
1 – 1
Renato 90′
2 – 1

Goiás
2 – 1
Internacional
0 – 1
20′ Valdívia
Zé Love 48′
1 – 1
Bruno Henrique 51′
2 – 1

Grêmio
2 – 1
Joinville
0 – 1
3′ Bruno Aguiar
F. Erazo 61′
1 – 1
Rafael Galhardo 84′
2 – 1

Coritiba
1 – 2
Avaí
0 – 1
1′ Anderson Lopes
Paulinho 50′
1 – 1
1 – 2
79′ Roberto

Criciúma
2 – 2
Sport Recife
0 – 1
9′ Patric
Lucca 48′
1 – 1
1 – 2
58′ Ewerton Páscoa
Lucca 68′
2 – 2

São Paulo
1 – 1
Internacional
0 – 1
18′ Paulão
Luís Fabiano 49′
1 – 1

Cruzeiro
3 – 1
Criciúma
0 – 1
3′ Lucca
M. Martins 59′
1 – 1
Ricardo Goulart 64′
2 – 1
Willian 90′
3 – 1

Vitória
1 – 2
São Paulo
0 – 1
14′ Luís Fabiano
Kadu 56′
1 – 1
1 – 2
78′ Kaká

Figueirense
1 – 2
Flamengo
0 – 1
5′ Eduardo da Silva
Mazola 57′
1 – 1
1 – 2
90′ Nixon

Vitória
3 – 1
Fluminense
0 – 1
19′ Cícero
Dinei 67′
1 – 1
William Henrique 71′
2 – 1
Vinícius 76′
3 – 1

Cruzeiro
4 – 2
Chapecoense
0 – 1
11′ Zezinho
Léo 50′
1 – 1
M. Martins 52′
2 – 1
Alisson 58′
3 – 1
3 – 2
70′ Bruno Rangel
M. Martins 71′
4 – 2

Flamengo
2 – 1
Atlético Mineiro
0 – 1
10′ Maicosuel
Leo Moura (PG) 65′
1 – 1
Eduardo da Silva 71′
2 – 1

Vitória
2 – 1
Grêmio
0 – 1
11′ H. Barcos
Caio 59′
1 – 1
Caio 77′
2 – 1