The Effect of the 2nd Half Home Fightback Metric in League 1

Posted on: September 8th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

In the table below I have added the last 70 games  where the away teams in League 1 where winning 1-0 at half time and there was a fightback by the home team with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band, 71% ended over 2.5 goals and 31% ended over 3.5 goals.

The home teams won 39%, 37% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 24% > lowered expectation of an AWAY win

0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric ( goal 0-20 minutes ) in the table below and the home fightback metric > FT > 1-1 1-1 2-1 3-1 1-1 1-2 5-1 1-2 2-1 3-1 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-2 2-1 1-1 1-3 4-1 3-1 2-2 1-1 1-2 1-2 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-2 2-1 3-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 1-1 2-1  > lowered expectation of the away teams winning.

Fightback goal 46-50 > the early home fightback in the table below > FT 1-1 1-1 5-1 3-1 4-2 1-1 1-2 2-1 1-2  3-1 2-2 2-1 3-1 1-2 2-1 > some expectation that the game will not end 1-1 .

 

 

 

T HT T(1-1) FT
AFC W. Chesterfield 35 0 1 53 2 1
Bolton Southend 3 0 1 48 1 1
Millwall Bradford 42 0 1 49 1 1
Bradford Oldham 5 0 1 57 1 1
Coventry Northampton 30 0 1 63 1 1
Sheff UTD Oxford 16 0 1 65 2 1
Bolton Fleetwood 34 0 1 54 2 1
Bradford Coventry 13 0 1 67 3 1
Charlton Northampton 16 0 1 57 1 1
Scunthorpe Rovers 31 0 1 66 3 1
Colchester Rochdale 18 0 1 53 1 2
Pete Blackpool 16 0 1 48 5 1
Barnsley Colchester 42 0 1 57 2 2
Shrewsbury Sheff UTD 19 0 1 54 1 2
Coventry Millwall 19 0 1 61 2 1
Doncaster Wigan 41 0 1 50 3 1
Millwall Shrewsbury 5 0 1 57 3 1
Chesterfiled Port Vale 36 0 1 47 4 2
Swindon Fleetwood 6 0 1 68 1 1
Colchester Donny 21 0 1 62 4 1
Oldham Gills 16 0 1 57 2 1
Walsall Wigan 39 0 1 68 1 2
Crewe Walsall 32 0 1 49 1 1
Shrewsbury Southend 24 0 1 47 1 2
Gillingham Pete 25 0 1 49 2 1
Colchester Sheff UTD 20 0 1 59 1 2
Oldham Millwall 2 0 1 59 1 2
Rochdale Chesterfield 26 0 1 58 2 3
Fleetwood Wigan 39 0 1 69 1 3
Bury Scunny 12 0 1 50 1 2
Sheff UTD Millwall 30 0 1 70 1 2
Scunny Shrewsbury 15 0 1 58 2 1
Port Vale Oldham 35 0 1 70 1 1
Blackpool Barnsley 8 0 1 55 1 1
Bury Oldham 24 0 1 65 1 1
Pete Sheff UTD 15 0 1 59 1 3
Swindon Bradford 4 0 1 52 4 1
Chesterfield Barnsley 4 0 1 49 3 1
Port Vale Preston 12 0 1 52 2 2
Peterborough Crewe 3 0 1 66 1 1
Barnsley Chesterfield 26 0 1 62 1 1
Colchester Barnsley 40 0 1 62 3 1
Sheff UTD Crewe 12 0 1 55 1 2
Orient Port vale 28 0 1 55 3 1
Crawley Gillingham 40 0 1 63 1 2
Yeovil Oldham 44 0 1 55 2 1
Scunthorpe Yeovil 28 0 1 61 1 1
Swindon Crawley 5 0 1 58 1 2
Doncaster Crewe 8 0 1 62 2 1
Scunthorpe Swindon 44 0 1 62 3 1
Peterborough Gillingham 30 0 1 55 1 2
Port Vale Bradford 41 0 1 58 2 2
Yeovil Crawley 27 0 1 66 2 1
Rochdale Notts County 42 0 1 46 2 2
Preston MK Dons 39 0 1 68 1 1
Fleetwood Sheff UTD 8 0 1 53 1 1
Sheff UTD Oldham 16 0 1 63 1 1
Crawley Crewe 19 0 1 68 1 1
Orient Coventry 35 0 1 54 2 2
MK Dons Swindon 6 0 1 51 2 1
Peterborough Scunthorpe 14 0 1 57 1 2
Barnsley Bristol City 36 0 1 59 2 2
Colchester Chesterfield 1 0 1 50 2 1
Barnsley Bradford 1 0 1 48 3 1
Chesterfield Notts County 15 0 1 62 1 1
Scunthorpe Orient 3 0 1 49 1 2
Rochdale Bristol City 16 0 1 56 1 1
Oldham Port vale 8 0 1 64 1 1
Bristol City Colchester 9 0 1 46 2 1
Sheff UTD Coventry 39 0 1 62 2 1