The Effect of the 2nd Half Away FightBack In Serie A ” Minute by Minute ” Data

Posted on: September 17th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

Bologna scored on 56 minutes > 1-1  in the game at Napoli today and we want to calculate expectation of the game ending over 2.5 goals .

In the table below I have added the last 142 games in Serie A where the home team were winning 1-0 at half time and there was an away fightback in the 2nd half in the 46-70 time band , and we can pull out all the games that were still 1-1 on 55 minutes . > FT > 

1-1 2-1 2-1 2-1 2-3 1-2 1-1 3-1 1-2 1-1 1-1 2-1 1-1 2-2 1-1 2-1 2-1 1-1 3-3 1-1 2-2 1-1 1-1 3-2 1-3 1-3 2-2 2-1 1-1 1-3 2-1 2-1 1-1 2-2 2-3 1-1 2-2 2-3 2-1 1-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 1-2 1-1 1-2 1-2 1-2 1-1 2-1 3-1

< 63% ended over 2.5 goals and 30% over 3.5 goals 

at 1-1 in the Napoli game  over 2.5 was offered at 1/2 ( 1/0.63 = 4/7 ) and over 3.5 was offered at 6/4 ( 1/0.30 = 9/4 + )

 

 

T T ( 1-1) FT
Napoli Bologna 14 56 3 1
Crotone Genoa 34 51 1 3
Milan Torino 38 48 3 2
Juventus Fiorentina 37 70 2 1
Palermo Verona 28 48 3 2
Fiorentina Sassuolo 10 55 3 1
Inter Torino 17 55 1 2
Chievo Empoli 7 47 1 1
Roma Verona 41 61 1 1
Roma Milan 4 50 1 1
Frosinone Milan 19 50 2 4
Genoa Carpi 8 57 1 2
Bologna Roma 14 52 2 2
Juventus Torino 19 51 2 1
Milan Sassuolo 31 53 2 1
Carpi Bologna 24 47 1 2
Bologna Udinese 31 61 1 2
Verona Lazio 33 63 1 2
Empoli Chievo 7 55 1 3
Frosinone Torino 7 59 1 2
Juventus Napoli 13 50 3 1
Genoa Torino 18 61 5 1
Inter Roma 15 63 2 1
Sassuolo Torino 45 58 1 1
Atalanta Sassuolo 42 59 2 1
Genoa Udinese 19 68 1 1
Udinese Fiorentina 15 50 2 2
Milan Cagliari 21 47 3 1
Atalanta Sampdoria 16 68 1 2
Milan Empoli 40 68 1 1
Genoa Fiorentina 14 54 1 1
Napoli Genoa 7 56 2 1
Fiorentina Roma 19 49 1 1
Sampdoria Palermo 6 48 1 1
Palermo Roma 2 54 1 1
Verona Parma 39 63 3 1
Juventus Inter 5 64 1 1
Fiorentina Empoli 44 57 1 1
Juventus Sampdoria 12 51 1 1
inter Udinese 44 60 1 2
AC Milan Inter 23 61 1 1
Cagliari Genoa 17 53 1 1
Milan Fiorentina 25 64 1 1
Lazio Torino 15 53 2 1
Palermo Cesena 33 61 2 1
Chievo Parma 4 65 2 3
Parma Roma 39 47 1 3
Livorno Cagliari 23 53 1 1
Chievo Juventus 28 47 1 2
Sampdoria Torino 41 66 2 2
Atalanta Lazio 41 53 2 1
Genoa Chievo 22 47 2 1
Sampdoria Sassuolo 19 49 3 4
Cagliari Torino 43 52 2 1
Bologna Inter 12 51 1 1
Sampdoria Parma 44 64 1 1
Udinese Lazio 8 62 2 3
Bologna Napoli 37 62 2 2
Lazio Juventus 27 60 1 1
Verona Torino 36 49 1 3
Roma Torino 41 52 2 1
Sassuolo Cagliari 36 47 1 1
Catania Sampdoria 45 61 2 1
Lazio Torino 42 52 3 3
Sampdoria Siena 45 62 2 1
Genoa Juventus 18 61 1 3
Udinese Milan 40 54 2 1
Roma Sampdoria 35 62 1 1
Chievo Sampdoria 45 61 2 1
Udinese Catania 29 62 2 2
Juventus Inter 1 59 1 3
Genoa Napoli 23 54 2 4
Atalanta Inter 9 56 3 2
Udinese Parma 9 46 2 2
Catania Milan 11 53 1 3
Siena Roma 25 63 1 3
Bologna Atalanta 16 50 2 1
Fiorentina Sampdoria 28 48 2 2
Siena Catania 10 50 1 3
Juventus Sampdoria 24 52 1 2
Milan Udinese 25 55 2 1
Cagliari Torino 37 47 4 3
Palermo Siena 44 51 1 2
Fiorentina Genoa 33 58 3 2
Inter Atalanta 44 56 3 4
Bologna Sampdoria 23 59 1 1
Sampdoria Catania 36 68 1 1
Roma Napoli 41 49 2 2
Palermo Parma 6 54 1 2
Milan Fiorentina 31 47 1 2
Chievo Siena 9 51 1 1
Atalanta Parma 5 55 1 1
Parma Fiorentina 28 61 2 2
Bologna Juventus 17 59 1 1
Juventus Udinese 42 56 2 1
Juventus Cagliari 7 48 1 1
Genoa Bologna 39 51 2 1
Pama Lecce 18 58 3 3
Roma Juventus 6 61 1 1
Lazio Catania 17 63 1 1
Juventus Fiorentina 13 58 2 1
Catania Juventus 22 49 1 1
Cesena Lazio 15 48 1 2
Juventus Bologna 29 52 1 1
Lazio Genoa 1 54 1 2
Fiorentina Bologna 20 50 1 1
Genoa Sampdoria 45 66 2 1
Cagliari Brescia 22 61 1 1
Parma Napoli 29 52 1 3
Bologna Cagliari 29 59 2 2
Catania Lecce 45 56 3 2
Lazio Chievo 45 64 1 1
Parma Fiorentina 15 49 1 1
Juventus Bari 43 57 2 1
Catania Chievo 29 65 1 1
Bologna Fiorentina 5 67 1 1
Lazio Udinese 2 49 3 2
Bologna Chievo 40 49 2 1
Lecce Genoa 45 55 1 3
Brescia Cagliari 20 63 1 2
Palermo Catania 33 46 3 1
Milan Palermo 19 63 3 1
Genoa Bari 36 52 2 1
Lecce Parma 31 69 1 1
Palermo Inter 28 62 1 2
Bologna Catania 15 51 1 1
Catania Juventus 24 52 1 1
Roma Sampdoria 14 52 1 2
Lazio Roma 14 53 1 2
Catania Siena 11 49 2 2
Napoli Parma 3 63 2 3
Roma Inter 17 66 2 1
Udinese Palermo 43 51 3 2
Chievo Cagliari 33 51 2 1
Milan Livorno 44 53 1 1
Livorno Genoa 21 63 2 1
Palermo Catania 4 55 1 1
Fiorentina Catania 4 48 3 1
Genoa Fiorentina 43 63 2 1
Cagliari Inter 16 51 1 2
Catania Lazio 12 57 1 1
Bologna Fiorentina 24 64 1 1