The Effect of 1-0 HALF TIME to the Home Team with the goal in 21-30 minutes time band in the Premier League: Under/Over 2.5 goals

Posted on: December 11th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

1-0 to the home team in the Premier League added to the goal in the 21-30 minutes time band and in general LOW expectation of the away team fighting back and winning and also lowered expectation of goal(s) production in the second half with the caveat that if there is a fight back goal by the away team ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band then this could result in expectation of further goal(s).

In the 102 games in the table below the total shot on target production to the away team in the second half was 239 and they scored 59 second half goals > 59/239 = only 24.69% of the shots on target were converted which is lower then the average for the Premier League over a season which in general will be around 30% conversion.

The home teams in the 102 games total shot on target production in the second half was 232 and they scored 65 second half goals > 65/232 = 28% > expectation that in this profile of game that the home team will be more accurate then the away team in the second half but still below average accuracy.

69% of the games in the table below ended Under 2.5 goals . ( 4/9 )

72-27-3 < the home teams won 71% ( 2/5 ) The away teams in the table below scored the 2nd goal of the game in 33% ” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,” < a few academics have come to that conclusion without looking at the effect of the opening goal as time decays in individuals leagues . FT First Half SOT 2nd Half SOT T T + 1 2016/2017 Bournemouth Everton 1 0 1 2 0 0 23 Hull Palace 3 3 2 2 4 4 27 A52 Man UTD Spurs 1 0 4 2 1 2 29 2015/2016 Man UTD Spurs 1 0 0 1 1 3 22 Liverpool Bourne. 1 0 1 0 1 2 26 Bourne. Leicester 1 1 2 0 0 2 24 A86 West Brom Leicester 2 3 1 2 5 3 30 A57 Watford Norwich 2 0 2 0 5 1 30 H90 Man City Swansea 2 1 3 2 2 5 26 A90 Norwich Villa 2 0 1 2 3 1 24 H87 Arsenal Bourne. 2 0 3 1 3 2 27 H63 Sunderland Villa 3 1 1 2 4 1 30 A63 Swansea Watford 1 0 2 1 0 1 27 Palace Spurs 1 3 0 4 3 7 30 A63 Everton Newcastle 3 0 2 0 5 3 23 H88 West Ham Sunderland 1 0 3 0 0 4 30 Leicester Newcastle 1 0 1 0 0 2 25 Swansea Chelsea 1 0 4 1 2 1 25 2014/2015 Liverpool Southampton 2 1 3 2 2 4 23 A56 Swansea Burnley 1 0 4 0 1 1 23 Man UTD Everton 2 1 3 0 1 6 27 A55 Chelsea Arsenal 2 0 2 0 1 0 27 H78 West Ham Man City 2 1 2 1 2 4 21 H75 Everton West Ham 2 1 2 1 2 2 26 A56 Villa Southampton 1 1 1 2 0 2 29 A81 Man City Everton 1 0 1 0 2 2 24 West Ham Leicester 2 0 1 2 1 2 24 H56 Villa West Brom 2 1 4 0 1 1 22 A66 Liverpool Burnley 2 0 4 0 4 1 29 H51 Everton Burnley 1 0 3 1 5 0 29 West Ham Burnley 1 0 3 1 4 1 24 Man UTD Arsenal 1 1 2 0 2 3 30 A82 2013/2014 Hull Norwich 1 0 2 1 0 3 22 Arsenal Spurs 1 0 3 2 2 3 23 Fulham West Brom 1 1 1 1 1 3 22 A92 Spurs Norwich 2 0 3 1 4 0 28 H49 Man UTD Southampton 1 1 3 3 2 4 26 A89 Hull Sunderland 1 0 0 0 2 1 25 Man UTD Arsenal 1 0 2 0 0 2 27 Sunderland Man City 1 0 1 1 1 3 21 Arsenal Southampton 2 0 1 2 3 2 22 H86 Stoke Sunderland 2 0 1 1 4 2 30 H81 Norwich Palace 1 0 2 2 1 1 30 Newcastle Southampton 1 1 2 1 3 2 27 A65 Chelsea Swansea 1 0 5 1 2 0 29 Everton Norwich 2 0 2 1 3 1 23 H59 Southampton Arsenal 2 2 2 1 3 3 21 A48 Swansea Palace 1 1 4 1 1 3 25 A82 Spurs Cardiff 1 0 3 1 3 1 28 Man City Fulham 5 0 4 0 8 0 26 H54 West Ham Hull 2 1 2 1 1 2 26 A48 Southampton Man UTD 1 1 5 0 1 2 28 A54 2012/2013 Liverpool Reading 1 0 3 0 4 3 29 Stoke Fulham 1 0 1 0 1 2 26 Chelsea West Brom 1 0 6 1 3 2 28 Man UTD Reading 1 0 3 0 1 0 21 Everton Stoke 1 0 4 2 2 1 28 Liverpool QPR 1 0 3 0 5 0 23 Arsenal West Brom 2 0 2 0 1 1 26 H64 West Ham Wigan 2 0 5 2 3 6 21 H89 Man City West Ham 2 1 4 1 4 2 28 H83 Sunderland Liverpool 1 1 1 2 0 4 29 A71 Aston Villa Norwich 1 1 4 1 0 3 27 A79 Fulham Wigan 1 1 1 2 1 5 22 A71 Stoke Wigan 2 2 1 1 2 5 23 H48 Wigan Southampton 2 2 2 0 1 2 25 A64 Norwich West Brom 4 0 4 0 3 4 25 H62 Chelsea Wigan 4 1 5 2 7 4 23 H56 Reading Fulham 3 3 1 2 7 4 26 A61 2011/2012 Stoke Liverpool 1 0 1 1 0 6 21 Man City Aston Villa 4 1 3 3 5 1 28 H47 Stoke Blackburn 3 1 1 1 2 5 28 H58 Sunderland Everton 1 1 2 1 0 1 26 A51 Bolton Wolves 1 1 4 0 4 2 22 A49 Everton Blackburn 1 1 3 3 3 1 24 A72 Swansea Norwich 2 3 1 3 3 6 23 A47 Man City Blackburn 3 0 6 0 3 1 30 H52 Man City Bolton 2 0 6 5 2 0 23 H69 Everton Spurs 1 0 4 2 1 3 22 West Brom QPR 1 0 3 2 2 0 22 QPR Spurs 1 0 2 3 1 3 24 Spurs Blackburn 2 0 3 0 2 0 22 H75 Bolton West Brom 2 2 4 4 1 6 24 H72 2010/2011 Sunderland Birmingham 2 2 2 0 0 6 24 H56 Blackburn Fulham 1 1 3 1 1 1 30 A56 West Ham Spurs 1 0 4 4 3 1 29 Bolton Stoke 2 1 1 1 5 2 22 A48 Chelsea Wolves 2 0 3 4 2 6 23 H81 Sunderland Aston Villa 1 0 1 0 0 3 25 Chelsea Fulham 1 0 4 1 5 2 30 Aston Villa West Brom 2 1 1 1 1 1 25 H80 Stoke Everton 2 0 1 2 0 0 23 H69 Man UTD Stoke 2 1 1 0 1 1 27 A50 Liverpool Everton 2 2 7 1 4 3 29 A46 Arsenal Wigan 3 0 8 0 2 0 21 H58 Liverpool Wigan 1 1 2 1 2 1 24 A65 Man City Fulham 1 1 2 1 2 3 26 A48 Stoke Newcastle 4 0 2 1 4 3 28 H46 Aston Villa Newcastle 1 0 1 1 2 2 24 Wolves Fulham 1 1 1 1 3 4 22 A80 Wigan Everton 1 1 1 2 7 4 21 A78 Man City Spurs 1 0 1 1 2 1 30