The Effect of 1-0 HALF TIME to the Home Team with the goal in 21-30 minutes time band in the Premier League: Under/Over 2.5 goals

Posted on: August 3rd, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

1-0 to the home team in the Premier League added to the goal in the 21-30 minutes time band and in general LOW expectation of the away team fighting back and winning and also lowered expectation of goal(s) production in the second half with the caveat that if there  is a fight back goal by the away team ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band then this could result in expectation of further goal(s).

In the 99 games in the table below the total shot on target production to the away team in the second half was 232  and they scored 57 second half goals > 57/232 = only 24.6% of the shots on target were converted which is lower then the average for the Premier League over a season which in general will be around 30% conversion.

The home teams in the 99  games total shot on target production in the second half was  227 and they scored 63 second half goals > 63/227 = 28% > expectation that in this profile of game that the home team will be more accurate then the away team in the second half but still below average accuracy.

69% of the games in the table below ended Under 2.5 goals . ( 4/9 ) 

70-26-3 < the home teams won 71% ( 2/5 ) 

The away teams in the table below scored the 2nd goal of the game in 33%

 

 

FT First Half SOT 2nd Half SOT T T + 1
2015/2016
Man UTD Spurs 1 0 0 1 1 3 22
Liverpool Bourne. 1 0 1 0 1 2 26
Bourne. Leicester 1 1 2 0 0 2 24 A86
West Brom Leicester 2 3 1 2 5 3 30 A57
Watford Norwich 2 0 2 0 5 1 30 H90
Man City Swansea 2 1 3 2 2 5 26 A90
Norwich Villa 2 0 1 2 3 1 24 H87
Arsenal Bourne. 2 0 3 1 3 2 27 H63
Sunderland Villa 3 1 1 2 4 1 30 A63
Swansea Watford 1 0 2 1 0 1 27
Palace Spurs 1 3 0 4 3 7 30 A63
Everton Newcastle 3 0 2 0 5 3 23 H88
West Ham Sunderland 1 0 3 0 0 4 30
Leicester Newcastle 1 0 1 0 0 2 25
Swansea Chelsea 1 0 4 1 2 1 25
2014/2015
Liverpool Southampton 2 1 3 2 2 4 23 A56
Swansea Burnley 1 0 4 0 1 1 23
Man UTD Everton 2 1 3 0 1 6 27 A55
Chelsea Arsenal 2 0 2 0 1 0 27 H78
West Ham Man City 2 1 2 1 2 4 21 H75
Everton West Ham 2 1 2 1 2 2 26 A56
Villa Southampton 1 1 1 2 0 2 29 A81
Man City Everton 1 0 1 0 2 2 24
West Ham Leicester 2 0 1 2 1 2 24 H56
Villa West Brom 2 1 4 0 1 1 22 A66
Liverpool Burnley 2 0 4 0 4 1 29 H51
Everton Burnley 1 0 3 1 5 0 29
West Ham Burnley 1 0 3 1 4 1 24
Man UTD Arsenal 1 1 2 0 2 3 30 A82
2013/2014
Hull Norwich 1 0 2 1 0 3 22
Arsenal Spurs 1 0 3 2 2 3 23
Fulham West Brom 1 1 1 1 1 3 22 A92
Spurs Norwich 2 0 3 1 4 0 28 H49
Man UTD Southampton 1 1 3 3 2 4 26 A89
Hull Sunderland 1 0 0 0 2 1 25
Man UTD Arsenal 1 0 2 0 0 2 27
Sunderland Man City 1 0 1 1 1 3 21
Arsenal Southampton 2 0 1 2 3 2 22 H86
Stoke Sunderland 2 0 1 1 4 2 30 H81
Norwich Palace 1 0 2 2 1 1 30
Newcastle Southampton 1 1 2 1 3 2 27 A65
Chelsea Swansea 1 0 5 1 2 0 29
Everton Norwich 2 0 2 1 3 1 23 H59
Southampton Arsenal 2 2 2 1 3 3 21 A48
Swansea Palace 1 1 4 1 1 3 25 A82
Spurs Cardiff 1 0 3 1 3 1 28
Man City Fulham 5 0 4 0 8 0 26 H54
West Ham Hull 2 1 2 1 1 2 26 A48
Southampton Man UTD 1 1 5 0 1 2 28 A54
2012/2013
Liverpool Reading 1 0 3 0 4 3 29
Stoke Fulham 1 0 1 0 1 2 26
Chelsea West Brom 1 0 6 1 3 2 28
Man UTD Reading 1 0 3 0 1 0 21
Everton Stoke 1 0 4 2 2 1 28
Liverpool QPR 1 0 3 0 5 0 23
Arsenal West Brom 2 0 2 0 1 1 26 H64
West Ham Wigan 2 0 5 2 3 6 21 H89
Man City West Ham 2 1 4 1 4 2 28 H83
Sunderland Liverpool 1 1 1 2 0 4 29 A71
Aston Villa Norwich 1 1 4 1 0 3 27 A79
Fulham Wigan 1 1 1 2 1 5 22 A71
Stoke Wigan 2 2 1 1 2 5 23 H48
Wigan Southampton 2 2 2 0 1 2 25 A64
Norwich West Brom 4 0 4 0 3 4 25 H62
Chelsea Wigan 4 1 5 2 7 4 23 H56
Reading Fulham 3 3 1 2 7 4 26 A61
2011/2012
Stoke Liverpool 1 0 1 1 0 6 21
Man City Aston Villa 4 1 3 3 5 1 28 H47
Stoke Blackburn 3 1 1 1 2 5 28 H58
Sunderland Everton 1 1 2 1 0 1 26 A51
Bolton Wolves 1 1 4 0 4 2 22 A49
Everton Blackburn 1 1 3 3 3 1 24 A72
Swansea Norwich 2 3 1 3 3 6 23 A47
Man City Blackburn 3 0 6 0 3 1 30 H52
Man City Bolton 2 0 6 5 2 0 23 H69
Everton Spurs 1 0 4 2 1 3 22
West Brom QPR 1 0 3 2 2 0 22
QPR Spurs 1 0 2 3 1 3 24
Spurs Blackburn 2 0 3 0 2 0 22 H75
Bolton West Brom 2 2 4 4 1 6 24 H72
2010/2011
Sunderland Birmingham 2 2 2 0 0 6 24 H56
Blackburn Fulham 1 1 3 1 1 1 30 A56
West Ham Spurs 1 0 4 4 3 1 29
Bolton Stoke 2 1 1 1 5 2 22 A48
Chelsea Wolves 2 0 3 4 2 6 23 H81
Sunderland Aston Villa 1 0 1 0 0 3 25
Chelsea Fulham 1 0 4 1 5 2 30
Aston Villa West Brom 2 1 1 1 1 1 25 H80
Stoke Everton 2 0 1 2 0 0 23 H69
Man UTD Stoke 2 1 1 0 1 1 27 A50
Liverpool Everton 2 2 7 1 4 3 29 A46
Arsenal Wigan 3 0 8 0 2 0 21 H58
Liverpool Wigan 1 1 2 1 2 1 24 A65
Man City Fulham 1 1 2 1 2 3 26 A48
Stoke Newcastle 4 0 2 1 4 3 28 H46
Aston Villa Newcastle 1 0 1 1 2 2 24
Wolves Fulham 1 1 1 1 3 4 22 A80
Wigan Everton 1 1 1 2 7 4 21 A78
Man City Spurs 1 0 1 1 2 1 30