The Effect of 0-1 Half Time Game State added to the opening goal in the 21-30 minutes time band in the Premier League

Posted on: October 24th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

At Half Time in the game between Manchester City and Southampton  the home team were offered at 2/1 and at 1-1 the home team were offered at 5/6 , and the key point is to understand if the prices offered were perceived value or not ?

In the table below i have added the last 40 games in the Premier League where the away team were winning 1-0 at half time added to the opening goal in the 21-30 minutes time band , and the home teams won 4/40 = 10% and we can see that the offer of 2/1 at half time for a Manchester City win was certainly not offering perceived value .

If we filter the games in the table below where the home team scored the second goal in the 46-70 time band ( > 1-1 ) , 1-1 2-1 2-1 1-3 2-1 2-1 2-2 1-2 2-2 1-2 1-1 2-2 and we see that the home teams won 33% ( 1/33= 2/1 ) and we can see that Manchester City at 1-1 ( 4/5 ) were not offering perceived value .

 

 

T HT T+1 FT
Man City Southampton 27 0 1 H55 1 1
Hull Stoke 26 0 1 A50 0 2
Stoke WHU 23 0 1 H55 2 1
Palace Stoke 26 0 1 H47 2 1
WBA Watford 27 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Bourne. 28 0 1 A70 1 3
Arsenal Chelsea 23 0 1 0 1
Villa Leicester 28 0 1 H75 1 1
Palace Chelsea 29 0 1 A60 0 3
Bourne. Newcastle 27 0 1 0 1
Norwich Leicester 28 0 1 A47 1 2
Villa Man UTD 29 0 1 0 1
Everton Spurs 24 0 1 0 1
QPR Newcastle 24 0 1 H54 2 1
Spurs Man City 29 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Spurs 30 0 1 H46 1 3
Stoke Southampton 22 0 1 H47 2 1
WHU Chelsea 22 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 22 0 1 A62 2 2
Man City Arsenal 24 0 1 A67 0 2
Villa Liverpool 24 0 1 A79 0 2
Sunderland Arsenal 30 0 1 A90 0 2
Arsenal Man City 28 0 1 H63 2 2
Man UTD Swansea 28 0 1 H53 1 2
Fulham Palace 28 0 1 H61 2 2
WBA Stoke 22 0 1 H56 1 2
Man UTD Sunderland 30 0 1 0 1
Everton Palace 23 0 1 A49 2 3
Newcastle Everton 22 0 1 A52 0 3
WBA Fulham 28 0 1 H86 1 1
WBA Liverpool 24 0 1 H67 1 1
Everton Sunderland 25 0 1 0 1
WBA Hull 28 0 1 H88 1 1
Cardiff Arsenal 29 0 1 A86 0 3
Norwich Villa 30 0 1 0 1
WBA Swansea 22 0 1 A83 0 2
Villa Liverpool 21 0 1 0 1
Swansea Fulham 22 0 1 A78 0 3
Liverpool Chelsea 26 0 1 H52 2 2
Newcastle Sunderland 27 0 1 A74 0 3