Teams are Vulnerable when they have just scored ?

Posted on: April 4th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark

http://www.sportseconomics.org/sports-economics/are-teams-more-vulnerable-just-after-they-score-not-in-the-league-of-ireland

 

“Peter Ayton and Anna Braennberg tested the validity of this belief. They did so by considering matches across two seasons in the English Premier League that ended in 1-1 draws (this, they reasoned, shows that ‘each team was capable of scoring against the other’). There were 127 such instances during the 1994-95 and 1995-96 campaigns. I came across their study while reading Myths and Facts about Football: The Economics and Psychology of the World’s Greatest Sport (2008).

So, is the team that trails to the game’s opening goal more likely to score just after they have conceded themselves than at any other time during the match?

For each game, the time left after the first goal was divided into four quarters. Say, for instance, the opening goal was scored after 50 minutes. The remaining 40 minutes is divided into four 10-minute quarters. If teams are more likely to concede immediately after scoring, then, naturally, you would expect more equalising goals in the first quarter than the fourth. Is this the case?

It is not.

Based on their sample size of 127 games, Ayton and Braennberg found that equalising goals were more common in the fourth quarter (31pc) than the first (17pc) in the English Premier League – the opposite to what commentators would have you believe.”

 

If you look at the early goal which i define as the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minutes time band or the opening goal by the home team in the 0-10 minutes time band in a league such as Japan J2 where the early goal metric in general will result in some expectation of the team that conceded fighting back then we see that a quick fightback is  a common event 

In the table below I have added games in Japan J2 where the game ended 1-1 at full time and the other sample is the early goal games as defined above that followed the pathway > 1-1  since 2014.

In the early goal games since 2014 below that followed the pathway to 1-1 30%,produced the fightback goal T+15 minutes or before and in the games with no early goal metric , 30% produced the fightback goal T+15

Japan J2 1-1 FT > no early goal

57-89 42-48 71-90 53-73 72-86 44-87 58-63 31-54 24-90 37-53 19-84 29-48 15-27 32-34 27-52 45-78 66-90 57-65 75-90 36-87 45-57 22-33 32-62 75-90 21-67 77-80 37-50 44-90 20-34 18-90 29-84 33-83 45-90 24-74 21-65 41-76 30-32 19-51 55-80 39-50 17-19 73-83 60-90 28-90 31-82 50-76 71-73 31-79 60-70 48-85 48-83 53-57 47-79 68-89 45-82 33-89 83-88 30-79 59-71 61-90 30-56 41-56 20-56 68-90 76-90 45-87 71-84 42-67 23-82 38-63 46-60 42-87 44-90 31-57 62-72 56-63 33-87 52-76 38-64 57-90 44-45 29-41 40-52 24-43 82-90 45-60 61-70  29-60 47-57 35-55 73-86 26-90 28-81 27-73 35-90 35-65 62-81 35-86 51-55 44-45 56-78 52-85  54-86  54-90 20-39 18-35

japan J2 early goal > 1-1 pathway

2-38 9-13 9-11 4-26 7-88 5-52 13-60 3-7 15-18 8-26 6-25 11-45 2-41 4-36 5-48 2-10 2-19 16-65 12-70 7-10 20-90 3-7 13-45 13-60 3-25 6-74 2-10 15-90 8-34 2-32 3-11 5-60 20-36 5-58 5-31 8-65 9-19 2-29 16-26 13-27 9-37 5-29 17-18 9-11 8-83 7-21 9-63 3-21 7-40 16-49 5-60 8-15 8-67 6-86  16-64 8-17  8-19 6-88 11-49 4-25 20-82 11-19 2-28 4-51 10-50  1-45 2-16 20-79 2-20 5-7  8-38 10-26 3-18 8-13 11-18 6-62 6-32 8-65 8-24 6-60  6-17  4-86 5-21 1-11 9-39 20-39 10-30 7-22 20-36 8-25 5-8

 

If you look at the early goal in leagues where there is expectation of the other team fighting back then you will find out that teams conceding a quick fightback is a common event and it may be also true in some leagues that even without an early goal metric that a quick fightback is common .